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  #1  
Old August 20th, 2008, 11:18 PM
FrankieT FrankieT is offline
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Default New at ace sequencing - question about a very simple scenario....

I'm just wondering, what is the profitability of memorizing key cards right before an ace, in a 2 deck game, considering...

1) this person can memorize 4 key cards with perfect accuracy
2) your gathering your key card information every other shoe, and doing the big bets in the shoes between (that is you big bet when you've spotted your key card as the last card of a given hand)
3) flat betting $5 on normal hands, 2x$100 when you've spotted your key card as the last card dealt out of the hand
4) playing nothing but perfect basic strategy
5) the rules are 2D H17 DAS DOA 50% pen, a heads up game with about 150 hands per hour, no resplitting aces
6) can only go from one hand to two hands once per shoe (pretty gay). To compensate, if a situation arose where the person had bet 2x$100 and had to go back to $5, he would just bet 1x$100 if another key card came up in the same shoe.
7) The dealer is the world's most average shuffler (not good, not bad, just an average of all the dealers in the world)


If the profitability is anything decent, wondering if a person might know the volatility of this? Lets put it this way, what would be the Risk of Ruin with a $10k bankroll?

I know the Zen man is experienced with this, maybe he can help me out :D (wink wink)

Last edited by FrankieT; August 20th, 2008 at 11:34 PM.
  #2  
Old August 20th, 2008, 11:34 PM
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zengrifter zengrifter is offline
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Whoaa, now THAT's a good question(s), since I do it (2D Ace Tracking) and I don't know the answers.

Anyone?

Can this be simmed? zg
  #3  
Old August 21st, 2008, 12:56 AM
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Automatic Monkey Automatic Monkey is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankieT View Post
I'm just wondering, what is the profitability of memorizing key cards right before an ace, in a 2 deck game, considering...

1) this person can memorize 4 key cards with perfect accuracy
2) your gathering your key card information every other shoe, and doing the big bets in the shoes between (that is you big bet when you've spotted your key card as the last card of a given hand)
3) flat betting $5 on normal hands, 2x$100 when you've spotted your key card as the last card dealt out of the hand
4) playing nothing but perfect basic strategy
5) the rules are 2D H17 DAS DOA 50% pen, a heads up game with about 150 hands per hour, no resplitting aces
6) can only go from one hand to two hands once per shoe (pretty gay). To compensate, if a situation arose where the person had bet 2x$100 and had to go back to $5, he would just bet 1x$100 if another key card came up in the same shoe.
7) The dealer is the world's most average shuffler (not good, not bad, just an average of all the dealers in the world)


If the profitability is anything decent, wondering if a person might know the volatility of this? Lets put it this way, what would be the Risk of Ruin with a $10k bankroll?

I know the Zen man is experienced with this, maybe he can help me out :D (wink wink)
Here's my input:

The risk of ruin is going to be reasonable. The risk of ruin for straight counting with a 2X$100 max bet and a $10K BR is reasonable (but not low.)

1) Come on don't be a wimp, you can memorize more than 4 key cards. Although with 50% pen that will be the average number. Bad pen hurts you in sequencing just like it does in counting.

2) Oh you've got to be kidding me, you can't play back and record in the same shoe in a DD game? Practice, practice, practice!

3) That spread's a little steep, might draw too much attention in the places where you play. Also might look like cheating. Maybe tone it down just a little.

4) You can probably get away withe some cover plays. Maybe research what the riskiest soft DD plays are and don't use them when you have large bets out. That will decrease your volatility.

5) Decent rules I guess.

6) That is gay. It wouldn't hurt much to play 2 hands on ordinary hands. You can work some rudimentary steering into your repertoire when aces are coming out in the middle of a round too.

7) Average is good. I assume you've studied the mechanics of shuffles as they pertain to ace location, but that is something best not to discuss publicly.

Here's a DD ace location trick for you! Once you have recorded a key card, you can manipulate your discards such that if you see the twin key card later in the round, the card following it is also a beneficial one. An ace gives you a 50% advantage, a ten card a 15% advantage, a 9 gives you a 1% advantage, and the other cards all give you large disadvantages (but some worse than others.) Example: you have keyed the Eight of Spades to an ace. On the next round, the other Eight of Spades comes out, and you have a choice of putting it on top of a King or a Six when you hand it back to the dealer. You'd choose the King, for on the next round when you put a big bet out after seeing the Eight of Spades you'll be happy to get either an Ace or a King.

One more thing: you mention 150 hands per hour so this sounds like a heads-up game. You want to be very careful when ace sequencing about the dealer getting the ace instead of you, and when it's just you and the dealer, it's easy to split the aces 50-50. Even with a 50-50 split you still have an advantage, but not the kind of advantage you want. This is a game where it's helpful to have a bunch of hands (preferably those of a partner) between you and the dealer to maximize your advantage. I remember a sequencing trip where I was confounded all night by the dealer getting the ace I predicted for me.
  #4  
Old August 21st, 2008, 01:53 AM
FrankieT FrankieT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey View Post
Here's my input:

The risk of ruin is going to be reasonable. The risk of ruin for straight counting with a 2X$100 max bet and a $10K BR is reasonable (but not low.)

1) Come on don't be a wimp, you can memorize more than 4 key cards. Although with 50% pen that will be the average number. Bad pen hurts you in sequencing just like it does in counting.

2) Oh you've got to be kidding me, you can't play back and record in the same shoe in a DD game? Practice, practice, practice!

3) That spread's a little steep, might draw too much attention in the places where you play. Also might look like cheating. Maybe tone it down just a little.

4) You can probably get away withe some cover plays. Maybe research what the riskiest soft DD plays are and don't use them when you have large bets out. That will decrease your volatility.

5) Decent rules I guess.

6) That is gay. It wouldn't hurt much to play 2 hands on ordinary hands. You can work some rudimentary steering into your repertoire when aces are coming out in the middle of a round too.

7) Average is good. I assume you've studied the mechanics of shuffles as they pertain to ace location, but that is something best not to discuss publicly.

Here's a DD ace location trick for you! Once you have recorded a key card, you can manipulate your discards such that if you see the twin key card later in the round, the card following it is also a beneficial one. An ace gives you a 50% advantage, a ten card a 15% advantage, a 9 gives you a 1% advantage, and the other cards all give you large disadvantages (but some worse than others.) Example: you have keyed the Eight of Spades to an ace. On the next round, the other Eight of Spades comes out, and you have a choice of putting it on top of a King or a Six when you hand it back to the dealer. You'd choose the King, for on the next round when you put a big bet out after seeing the Eight of Spades you'll be happy to get either an Ace or a King.

One more thing: you mention 150 hands per hour so this sounds like a heads-up game. You want to be very careful when ace sequencing about the dealer getting the ace instead of you, and when it's just you and the dealer, it's easy to split the aces 50-50. Even with a 50-50 split you still have an advantage, but not the kind of advantage you want. This is a game where it's helpful to have a bunch of hands (preferably those of a partner) between you and the dealer to maximize your advantage. I remember a sequencing trip where I was confounded all night by the dealer getting the ace I predicted for me.
Good stuff monkey.

It totally didn't occur to me that you can manipulate the card order in a pitch game, lol.

Good idea on how to make both your key card and his twin brother viable.

I can see myself being able to memorize key cards and utilize key cards in the same shoe (not alternating). Going beyond 4 memorized key cards would be tough though :D.

I know very little about the "mechanics of shuffling". I've seen terms like "riffle" used in these threads. Hence why I said "the worlds most average dealer".

Any good literature on ace sequencing in general, (internet or paper) you can recommend. Preferably literature that deals a lot with 1-2d and has lots of pictures :D


P.S. oh yeah, one more thing I forgot to mention...at this particular joint, any play on two hands has to be played at $10 minimum. yowzers

Last edited by FrankieT; August 21st, 2008 at 02:20 AM.
  #5  
Old August 21st, 2008, 08:11 AM
FrankieT FrankieT is offline
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Nevermind, I see the somebody already recommended "Blackjack Ace Prediction: The Art Of Advanced Location Strategies For The Casino "
  #6  
Old August 21st, 2008, 10:23 AM
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Sonny Sonny is offline
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You don’t mention the casino’s shuffle procedure (which is smart ), but that is something you need to look at. Many DD shuffles are simply not sequenceable while others are very profitable. Here’s Sonny’s patented Six-Step program:

1) Analyze the shuffle and see what sort of accuracy you can expect. You might find that the shuffle is not predictable enough to play.

2) Scout the dealers and find the ones that you can afford to play against. By this time you should know what kind of shuffle to look for. Find the dealers that shuffle the way you need them to. This might include dealers that don’t follow the house procedures or dealers that follow them perfectly.

3) Crunch the numbers, get your EV and SD and set up a betting strategy. Sequencing can be very dangerous, especially with a difficult shuffle and/or lots of steering. You need to verify that you are playing with an advantage but also within your tolerance for risk. Just like with card counting, both overbetting and underbetting can ruin you. You need to know when to bet, how much to bet, when to spread to multiple hands (if at all), and what misplays you can afford to make in order to steer the cards.

4) Practice at home until your accuracy is acceptable. Have several other people shuffle the cards for you. Teach your friend(s), neighbor(s), significant other(s) how to shuffle like the dealers do. Try to find a way to beat each of their styles, or at least determine why you can’t beat certain people's technique.

5) Go to the casino, find one of your dealers and “back-sequence” the table for 5-10 shuffles. If your accuracy is acceptable, sit down and play. If not, back to step 2.

McDowell's book will definitely open up your eyes to many possibilities. Also read Snyder's cookbook for some sequencing tips.

-Sonny-
  #7  
Old August 21st, 2008, 11:29 AM
FrankieT FrankieT is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
You don’t mention the casino’s shuffle procedure (which is smart ), but that is something you need to look at. Many DD shuffles are simply not sequenceable while others are very profitable. Here’s Sonny’s patented Six-Step program:

1) Analyze the shuffle and see what sort of accuracy you can expect. You might find that the shuffle is not predictable enough to play.

2) Scout the dealers and find the ones that you can afford to play against. By this time you should know what kind of shuffle to look for. Find the dealers that shuffle the way you need them to. This might include dealers that don’t follow the house procedures or dealers that follow them perfectly.

3) Crunch the numbers, get your EV and SD and set up a betting strategy. Sequencing can be very dangerous, especially with a difficult shuffle and/or lots of steering. You need to verify that you are playing with an advantage but also within your tolerance for risk. Just like with card counting, both overbetting and underbetting can ruin you. You need to know when to bet, how much to bet, when to spread to multiple hands (if at all), and what misplays you can afford to make in order to steer the cards.

4) Practice at home until your accuracy is acceptable. Have several other people shuffle the cards for you. Teach your friend(s), neighbor(s), significant other(s) how to shuffle like the dealers do. Try to find a way to beat each of their styles, or at least determine why you can’t beat certain people's technique.

5) Go to the casino, find one of your dealers and “back-sequence” the table for 5-10 shuffles. If your accuracy is acceptable, sit down and play. If not, back to step 2.

McDowell's book will definitely open up your eyes to many possibilities. Also read Snyder's cookbook for some sequencing tips.

-Sonny-
Thanks for the info.

Making misplays to steer cards? Fascinating
  #8  
Old October 15th, 2008, 06:33 PM
jimmtech jimmtech is offline
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Default Predicting Aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
You don’t mention the casino’s shuffle procedure (which is smart ), but that is something you need to look at. Many DD shuffles are simply not sequenceable while others are very profitable. Here’s Sonny’s patented Six-Step program:

1) Analyze the shuffle and see what sort of accuracy you can expect. You might find that the shuffle is not predictable enough to play.

2) Scout the dealers and find the ones that you can afford to play against. By this time you should know what kind of shuffle to look for. Find the dealers that shuffle the way you need them to. This might include dealers that don’t follow the house procedures or dealers that follow them perfectly.

3) Crunch the numbers, get your EV and SD and set up a betting strategy. Sequencing can be very dangerous, especially with a difficult shuffle and/or lots of steering. You need to verify that you are playing with an advantage but also within your tolerance for risk. Just like with card counting, both overbetting and underbetting can ruin you. You need to know when to bet, how much to bet, when to spread to multiple hands (if at all), and what misplays you can afford to make in order to steer the cards.

4) Practice at home until your accuracy is acceptable. Have several other people shuffle the cards for you. Teach your friend(s), neighbor(s), significant other(s) how to shuffle like the dealers do. Try to find a way to beat each of their styles, or at least determine why you can’t beat certain people's technique.

5) Go to the casino, find one of your dealers and “back-sequence” the table for 5-10 shuffles. If your accuracy is acceptable, sit down and play. If not, back to step 2.

McDowell's book will definitely open up your eyes to many possibilities. Also read Snyder's cookbook for some sequencing tips.

-Sonny-
I got so excited earlier in the year watching a couple shuffles - I was able to predict some aces; I was also able to predict some aces on a csm...

So I went spent several months getting card tags down cold with recall from 27 memory locations.

Since last week I have visited the 5 casinos closest to me and #@$! !!! I could not predict even 1 ace watching csms, asms, 2 deck, 6 deck and 8 deck hand shuffles. (I watched for the 2 cards on top of AND underneath Aces)

Are there still shuffles that are predictable out there? I have seen posts where others seem to consider this as merely extra tool in your AP tool kit only to be used if you happen to come across a weak or simple shuffle - similar to knowing hole card stategy if you happen across a flashing dealer..

It seems a shame to shelf my newly acquired skill! I really hoped to do only this but finding predictable shuffles is proving to be a lot more difficult than I expected..

Any PMs for more sensitive detail are greatly appreciated!

Thanks!
  #9  
Old April 24th, 2010, 09:55 PM
KimLee KimLee is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankieT View Post
Nevermind, I see the somebody already recommended "Blackjack Ace Prediction: The Art Of Advanced Location Strategies For The Casino "
Warning - McDowell's book is wrong! We savaged him on BlackjackForumOnline, and he was too much of a pussy to face us. However, he released "corrections" that basically made up numbers.

I heard McDowell profited from playing. But he did not profit with play-all under the conditions described in his book. The play-all method of his book makes too many costly waiting bets and gets too few opportunities to make profitable bets.
  #10  
Old April 25th, 2010, 01:30 AM
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zengrifter zengrifter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KimLee View Post
Warning - McDowell's book is wrong! We savaged him on BlackjackForumOnline, and he was too much of a pussy to face us. However, he released "corrections" that basically made up numbers.

I heard McDowell profited from playing. But he did not profit with play-all under the conditions described in his book. The play-all method of his book makes too many costly waiting bets and gets too few opportunities to make profitable bets.
Welcome Kim Lee.
If only you would have told us two years ago when the thread was initiated.
(which was three years after McDowell was debunked)
We all lost BRs following McDowell! zg

Last edited by zengrifter; April 25th, 2010 at 01:46 AM.
 

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