Calculate probability to decide whether to hit/double/split/stand

[ItsMe1989]

KenSmith thank you very much - that was very helpful. I had almost that but some of my logic was slightly wrong!

I've implemented it along the lines you suggest now, however it still appears to be resulting it hitting always being more favourable than doubling. I'm wondering if there might be a slight mistake in how i'm calculating one of the figures used in the calculation (such as the stand EV or dealer probability).
If I outline the process i'm using could you tell me if you see any problems?

Dealer Prob:
Take upcard, loop through each of cards (2..ace) and continue to call function until a total over 17 is achieved. Work out the probability of that route and add that to an array storing each outcome (17 through 21, bj and bust) in the correct element. Continue until all routes have been processed.
This seems to be working and giving me figures that seem roughly correct (and add up to 1 so i know all options are being evaluated) but it differs from the tables linked to by Sonny earlier in the thread.

Stand EV: (as outlined in The Theory of Blackjack, if i've understood it correctly)
Get current dealer prob and value of current hand, for each of the possible outcomes decide if you'd win or loose (currently ignoring ties) and adding to win/loose variables. Then ev = win-loose.

Double EV:
Loop through each of cards (2..ace) adding one to the current two card hand, calculate the probability of getting that card, calculate the stand EV after taking that card, multiply probability and stand EV then add to double EV. Do once for each of the available cards (2..ace).

I believe I'm fairly close with these and really do appreciate the feedback.
Thanks!

[Canceler]

Originally Posted by ItsMe1989

it still appears to be resulting it hitting always being more favourable than doubling.

I hate to ask a silly question, but...

Are you handling your payouts properly? Because a proper double-down (as opposed to hitting) should result in winning fewer hands, but more money.

[ItsMe1989]

Originally Posted by Canceler

Are you handling your payouts properly? Because a proper double-down (as opposed to hitting) should result in winning fewer hands, but more money.

Canceler: I get what you're saying and i think i may have overlooked this (rather silly of me) in my calculation of double down EV.
Am i correct in thinking that as you will win twice as much, the wins should be weighted twice as much as the lose in the calculation?

I'm still thinking my process for calculating the dealer probabilites is slighly wrong as they differ from the tables on the site.

Thanks.

[Canceler]

Originally Posted by ItsMe1989

Am i correct in thinking that as you will win twice as much, the wins should be weighted twice as much as the lose in the calculation?

Something like that, I'm sure. In this thread, I'm only doing concepts. I'll leave it to you to work out the details.