Rooming with Mr. Obvious

[FLASH1296]

S.D.,

<1% ? You dropped a zero. < .01 is probably still too high.

It is tough enough finding a civilian who can even play perfect Basic Strategy.

Unless you are in Atlantic City where every full table, even at minimum stakes, has at least one person betting irrationally but playing Basic Strategy.

Then again you can be in some parts of rural America where finding anyone playing correct Basic Strategy is genuinely uncommon.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Dopple

I sat down at one of my favorite places today and the only other player was betting $10, waiting until a count around 7 then jumping to 2x100. I picked up and left after he did it the second time, the first time I thought he might just be a hunch player. I want to be nowhere in the vicinity with that kind of play.

Really, as a really smart frog might also ask, why?

Maybe I have the wrong guy but are u using a Hi-Lo count to determine a +TC7? It might take hrs before you'd see it twice anyway?

Even if it did happen twice fairly quickly, say back-to back, who's to say it wasn't coincidence anyway?

You don't mention game rules, playing-all or not, etc but, in your mind, how many AP guys do you think would actually bet this way anyway while not even, apparently, at least making some index plays along the way? OK - maybe you don't know any index plays anyway so you would not have noticed lol.

It just doesn't sound overly-likely to me the casino is going to think that guy is a card-counter or at least one they have to fear. It may not even be a +EV game anyway for that guy if playing-all in a shoe game. Again, a guess.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by FLASH1296

<1% ? You dropped a zero. < .01 is probably still too high...

And, apparently, you dropped a "%" sign lol.

No big deal - just appealing to the sense of humor I know you have lol.

Who the hell knows anyway lol.

I think anyone COULD count if they want but many don't choose to.

I think a bunch DO count.

I think, of those that DO count, even fewer bet a proper ramp.

Of those that do count and bet proper ramp, even fewer always do it in disciplined way or change ramp when game conditions change.

Of those that do count and bet a proper ramp in a disciplined way, even in changing game conditions, even fewer can relate all that to risk of roll at any point along the way.

Only those now remaining few deserve the honorary title of "AP" in my book.

[Meistro]

He was referring to RC Kasi.

[ExhibitCAA]

Koseao, you did not see a counter. No chance. There is no counter within a hundred miles of you (of course, I'd probably say the same thing to the counter who lives down the street from you).

You counters are so desperate to ease your loneliness that you see counters behind every tree. Any observed data that does not fit your "he's-a-counter" hypothesis gets shoehorned in as "That monster bet in a negative count was a cover play." I believe Bill Clinton said it best: "Sometimes an obnoxious drunk is just an obnoxious drunk."

As for how many counters are out there, consider this: Vegas has 3.5 million visitors per month (maybe not in the current economy), and I doubt that there are 35 counters visiting per month. That would be 0.001%. If you think that there are up to 350 counters per month, then that would be 0.01%. So that gives us a reasonable range.

Flash says: "Unless you are in Atlantic City where every full table, even at minimum stakes, has at least one person betting irrationally but playing Basic Strategy."

No, I have NEVER seen a civilian who plays perfect BS all the time, even in Atlantic City. Civs do not play 99 and A7 correctly, and do they double A8v6 in H17 games? Of course not.

[JSTAT]

Originally Posted by ExhibitCAA

You counters are so desperate to ease your loneliness that you see counters behind every tree.

Why the disparaging words referring to counters, ExhibitCAA? It can be said that hole carders are cheaters and give card counters a bad name. George Maloof, owner of the Palms in Las Vegas calls you a cheater and many agree your techniques border on spooking as seen in the movie Casino.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHLTo...om=PL&index=27

[Brutus]

Originally Posted by JSTAT

Why the disparaging words referring to counters, ExhibitCAA? It can be said that hole carders are cheaters and give card counters a bad name. George Maloof, owner of the Palms in Las Vegas calls you a cheater and many agree your techniques border on spooking as seen in the movie Casino.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHLTo...om=PL&index=27

I wouldnt mind playing under the conditions in that clip... again

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by JSTAT

Why the disparaging words referring to counters, ExhibitCAA? It can be said that hole carders are cheaters and give card counters a bad name. George Maloof, owner of the Palms in Las Vegas calls you a cheater and many agree your techniques border on spooking as seen in the movie Casino.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHLTo...om=PL&index=27

ECAA is just making a point that counters tend to overexaggerate the existance and number of other counters, which is on topic with this thread. What point on the topic of this thread are you making. Looks like just a personal attack, unrelated to the thread to me.

[kewljason]

Originally Posted by ExhibitCAA

Koseao, you did not see a counter. No chance. There is no counter within a hundred miles of you (of course, I'd probably say the same thing to the counter who lives down the street from you).

You counters are so desperate to ease your loneliness that you see counters behind every tree. Any observed data that does not fit your "he's-a-counter" hypothesis gets shoehorned in as "That monster bet in a negative count was a cover play." I believe Bill Clinton said it best: "Sometimes an obnoxious drunk is just an obnoxious drunk."

As for how many counters are out there, consider this: Vegas has 3.5 million visitors per month (maybe not in the current economy), and I doubt that there are 35 counters visiting per month. That would be 0.001%. If you think that there are up to 350 counters per month, then that would be 0.01%. So that gives us a reasonable range.

Flash says: "Unless you are in Atlantic City where every full table, even at minimum stakes, has at least one person betting irrationally but playing Basic Strategy."

No, I have NEVER seen a civilian who plays perfect BS all the time, even in Atlantic City. Civs do not play 99 and A7 correctly, and do they double A8v6 in H17 games? Of course not.

I don't think we can have this numbers discussion without first defining who qualifies as a counter?

Personally, I find the number of 0.001% low. If you translate that number to residents, with the estimated population of the Vegas Metro are being 1.8 million, that translates to 18 counters residing in Vegas permanately or part time. That definately seems low to me, but again would depend a great deal on how we are difining counter.

[1357111317]

Completely depends on your location. I bet right now in vegas if you watched every single table in every single in casino you could probably find 50-100 counters that are playing a +EV game. Some places you might never see a counter if you played for 2 years straight.

As for dectecting other counters its very easy. After about 15 hands I can definatly say a person can't be playing a +EV game after about 1 shoe with a positive count I can tell if the person is counting and playing a +EV game. I could share the two key things I look for initially to see if someone is a good counter but I won't in fear of making the casinos job easier.