Horrific 9 months at the tables
It's been a long time since I've posted anything of substance.
I've been playing in the shadows, not really reporting here. Read Exhibit CAA, playing all over US.
A little background. I started playing in 2007 with a measly bankroll of $700. Over the course of a year I had invested $2500 of my own money and built that bankroll up to $4800 using KO. This happened with a lot of luck and weaker than necessary bet spreads. The whole time playing the best games I could find. over the course of the year i had 18 winning sessions and 6 losing sessions.
2008-2009 was a year of stellar growth. Bankroll grew from 4800 to 7700 in 27 sessions.
Sometime in 2008 I helped develop Open Source UBZII and switched over to it without issue.
2009 First 13 sessions brought bankroll to $11,400. Next 24 sessions saw huge roller coaster all the way down to $8400 and back up to $11,023.50
The remaining 25 sessions of 2009 saw the bankroll deteriorate down to $4000. it was an unbelievably difficult past 9 months. During the downward spiral I did decrease max bets (usually around 1.2% of BR), and avoided steaming. I played my best game and quit only when tired or when tapped out. SEVERAL of the session losses I've seen, even 3 hour losses have been massive.
I've stopped to double check my game at many intervals, it always checked out. For UBZII I ran the sims and double checked results with co-conspirator and cross referenced George C's book, Renzey's book, BJA, etc.
I can safely say, save for a few 'old timers' here. I've seen more dealer 20s this year, when I was staring at my 19 than I care to recall or than any of you did.
If I believed in luck, i would say it has been a bad luck year. instead I say that the cards just didn't fall the way I hoped... and I'm sitting on the -2 SD line.
I've been thinking what should my game plan be for this year. I have plenty of cash to invest. i could revert to KO, though don't see this as the problem. I could play off the remaining 4000 as if it were 10k, knowing I can reinvest at will. I could play the 4000 at Kelley and build back up. I'm thinking of playing as if I have a 10k bankroll. $40 max bets aren't really worth my time. It would be better to lose it all and not play again than to make like $6/hr.
if there is anything i'm missing here, let me know. I'm not afraid of the game, and am prepared to lose it all or win it all back. I have the time, energy and wherewithal to make it happen. I can do it with a clear head. I have 4 days in a town with 20 casinos coming up in a month and am starting to hone my game now for 2010.
Thanks for the read, and hopefully there is something of use to new people on this forum with dreams of endless, exponential growth. This reality check was bound to happen, but the speed and steepness of the check was unexpected.