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  #11  
Old October 8th, 2011, 07:02 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Originally Posted by jaygruden View Post
I feel that you are underestimating the "cost" involved with assigning weight to your object. You are making the "win or break even argument" but it doesn't apply here.

Whatever weight you are giving your "lucky object" is automatically subtracted from the weight that you are giving the mathematical probability, whether you know it or not. Therefore I view these as "competing" concepts. You either believe 100% in the math or your don't. If you believe that 10% of the results can be controlled by an "object" (whether it's the variance or luck or whatever you want to call it) then you only believe that 90% of it is controlled by mathematical certainty. Your beliefs control your decision making so you will only act with the math 90% of the time and you will act with the object 10% of the time. If you lend more credence to the object (20%, 30%, etc.) then the numbers will be even worse.

This is why education is the single most valuable commodity available to a human being. Learning the truth about anything will create a belief system based on that truth. All decisions will when naturally flow from the belief system. This is true in the arena of card counting and also applies to every other area of life.

Example: Before I learned about, and started, counting cards I believed in the "gambler's fallacy" and my decisions were based on that faulty belief. Once I learned, understood, realized and fully internalized the statistical certainty of the game of BJ, then my belief system on the subject completely changed. As a matter of course, all future decisions flowed naturally from the new belief system. It is only through continual education that I can further develop my beliefs to make the proper decisions to improve my game.

JMHO
I don't carry a lucky charm but if I did, I would play 100% by math and believe the charm would help bring me more positive variance than negative. I can't speak for these superstitious people though.
  #12  
Old October 9th, 2011, 02:55 AM
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Roswell Crash Survivor Roswell Crash Survivor is offline
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Some very eloquent responses so far from both sides.

Anyone who thinks I'm altering from my statistically correct play because I'm may not have fully read my original post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roswell Crash Survivor View Post
At an intellectual level, I'm still devoted to playing based on a statistical edge; I'm not going to hit hard 17 vs. a dealer 5 regardless of what I'm carrying.

At a rational level, the effect of a 'lucky object' could be from its function as a psychological 'backstop' to support morale;
  #13  
Old October 13th, 2011, 11:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld

That made me think of the line that made the Doors pick their name.

"There are things known, and there are things unknown. In between there are the doors." I just cannot recall who said it.
  #14  
Old October 14th, 2011, 06:38 AM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamblor View Post
"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know.
We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld
Amusing wording to make a good point. The last one is the danger. To many act like something is a proven fact when it is at best a theory. Knowing that your most certain assumptions (assumptions that give scientific conclusions with the highest degree of certainty) to build on have a much much higher degree of certainty that they are wrong is lost on most people
  #15  
Old October 14th, 2011, 02:35 PM
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MEJ1990TM,

You posted ...

"There are things known, and there are things unknown. In between there are the doors." I just cannot recall who said it."

I think that that was Aldous Huxley -- The Doors of Perception
  #16  
Old October 16th, 2011, 04:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
Amusing wording to make a good point. The last one is the danger. To many act like something is a proven fact when it is at best a theory. Knowing that your most certain assumptions (assumptions that give scientific conclusions with the highest degree of certainty) to build on have a much much higher degree of certainty that they are wrong is lost on most people
yah....... what you said
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...68&postcount=1
i shoulda thought about that when i made that bet
  #17  
Old October 17th, 2011, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MEJ1990TM View Post
That made me think of the line that made the Doors pick their name.

"There are things known, and there are things unknown. In between there are the doors." I just cannot recall who said it.
The reason that the Doors picked Doors as their name, is because they looked into the future and decided that Windows would be an embarrasing name.
  #18  
Old October 17th, 2011, 05:56 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Originally Posted by QFIT View Post
The reason that the Doors picked Doors as their name, is because they looked into the future and decided that Windows would be an embarrasing name.
Pretty funny Q.
 

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