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Old November 7th, 2011, 01:49 PM
stevo123 stevo123 is offline
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Default Calculating Average Advantage

I'm trying to do some calculations and figure out my expected hourly win rate. I'm going to be wonging in at any positive count and wonging out when the count goes negative. Based on the rules at the casinos I'm playing, the edge the casinos have starts at about .5%.

I figured I'd multiply my edge over the house by my bet size. And then multiply that by the number of hands I will be playing an hour. This should equal my expected hourly win rate.

But I don't know how to go about calculating my edge over the house. I know since I am only playing when I have an edge on the house it will always be a positive number. But the count while I am playing will fluctuate and will be anywhere from 0 to positive infinity (not really infinity b/c there are only so many cards and the count can only get so high but you get the picture). Additionally, I know that how many decks are left in the shoe will also change the probability of me winning a hand which complicates the matter even further. So since my advantage over the house will be changing from hand to hand I don't know how to calculate what my average edge over the house will be. Does anybody know what the exact number is, or how to calculate it?
  #2  
Old November 7th, 2011, 02:38 PM
AussiePlayer AussiePlayer is offline
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http://www.qfit.com/online-blackjack-calculator.htm
  #3  
Old November 7th, 2011, 05:58 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo123 View Post
I'm trying to do some calculations and figure out my expected hourly win rate. I'm going to be wonging in at any positive count and wonging out when the count goes negative. Based on the rules at the casinos I'm playing, the edge the casinos have starts at about .5%.

I figured I'd multiply my edge over the house by my bet size. And then multiply that by the number of hands I will be playing an hour. This should equal my expected hourly win rate.

But I don't know how to go about calculating my edge over the house. I know since I am only playing when I have an edge on the house it will always be a positive number. But the count while I am playing will fluctuate and will be anywhere from 0 to positive infinity (not really infinity b/c there are only so many cards and the count can only get so high but you get the picture). Additionally, I know that how many decks are left in the shoe will also change the probability of me winning a hand which complicates the matter even further. So since my advantage over the house will be changing from hand to hand I don't know how to calculate what my average edge over the house will be. Does anybody know what the exact number is, or how to calculate it?
i think you are wanting to calculate w/l%
ie: %Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet. this is how QFIT's simulator help describes expected value, errhh your edge over the house.....
how you could do it without a sim, i haven't a clue.
but if you have a sim, then you'd use the formula in the image where E39 is your average bet.
note: the cells A, B, C, D, E contain information gleaned from a simulation
so you'd take the sum of frequencies of true counts, multiply by the sum of advantage @ those true counts, multiply by the sum of units bet @ those true counts then divide by your average bet in units
your win rate per hour in units is then the product of avg bet in units times #hands played per hour times w/l%
edit: lol, but if you have a simulator then the simulator will calculate all of this for you and you wouldn't even have to do it
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Last edited by sagefr0g; November 7th, 2011 at 06:01 PM.
  #4  
Old November 7th, 2011, 08:13 PM
stevo123 stevo123 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
i think you are wanting to calculate w/l%
ie: %Win/Loss - Also called EV or IBA (Initial Bet Advantage.) This is the amount won or lost divided by the initial bet. this is how QFIT's simulator help describes expected value, errhh your edge over the house.....
how you could do it without a sim, i haven't a clue.
but if you have a sim, then you'd use the formula in the image where E39 is your average bet.
note: the cells A, B, C, D, E contain information gleaned from a simulation
so you'd take the sum of frequencies of true counts, multiply by the sum of advantage @ those true counts, multiply by the sum of units bet @ those true counts then divide by your average bet in units
your win rate per hour in units is then the product of avg bet in units times #hands played per hour times w/l%
edit: lol, but if you have a simulator then the simulator will calculate all of this for you and you wouldn't even have to do it
Thanks for the info, I'm new to the game and don't know all the lingo yet hah. Any idea how I can get access to a simulator?
  #5  
Old November 7th, 2011, 09:21 PM
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sagefr0g sagefr0g is offline
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Originally Posted by stevo123 View Post
Thanks for the info, I'm new to the game and don't know all the lingo yet hah. Any idea how I can get access to a simulator?
well for being new you certainly do seem knowledgeable, check this link for some info on a simulator:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/b.../software.html

edit: free one here, i don't have much experience with it:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...mSimp_Beta.htm
.....

Last edited by sagefr0g; November 7th, 2011 at 09:33 PM.
  #6  
Old November 8th, 2011, 12:04 AM
stevo123 stevo123 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sagefr0g View Post
well for being new you certainly do seem knowledgeable, check this link for some info on a simulator:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/store/b.../software.html

edit: free one here, i don't have much experience with it:
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...mSimp_Beta.htm
.....
Thank you sir. I'll take a look at those. I've heard good things about casino verite. If I can get some money together I think I'll buy that.
  #7  
Old November 8th, 2011, 09:38 AM
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Sonny Sonny is offline
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The book Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger also has an entire chapter full of charts that cover the most common games, bet spreads and penetration levels. It also includes bankroll requirements and game selection advice.

-Sonny-
  #8  
Old November 8th, 2011, 02:51 PM
stevo123 stevo123 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
The book Blackjack Attack by Don Schlesinger also has an entire chapter full of charts that cover the most common games, bet spreads and penetration levels. It also includes bankroll requirements and game selection advice.

-Sonny-
Cool thanks I'll take a look at that. Do you know if the charts provide ev for if you are wonging? The calculators and charts I've seen so far never provide numbers for if you are wonging.
  #9  
Old November 8th, 2011, 02:59 PM
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Sonny Sonny is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stevo123 View Post
Cool thanks I'll take a look at that. Do you know if the charts provide ev for if you are wonging? The calculators and charts I've seen so far never provide numbers for if you are wonging.
The book has EV information for several different types of Wonging. In the meantime you could use the spreadsheet here:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=15578&

-Sonny-
  #10  
Old November 8th, 2011, 11:01 PM
stevo123 stevo123 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sonny View Post
The book has EV information for several different types of Wonging. In the meantime you could use the spreadsheet here:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=15578&

-Sonny-
Cool Spreadsheet
 

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