Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #11  
Old November 21st, 2011, 07:54 PM
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iCountNTrack iCountNTrack is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?
It doesnt make a difference it is still diferrent see below:

11 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.574852433669
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.425147566331
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.149704867338 0.988730728103
*****************************
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 0.875441320009

the odds will always be diferrent because they depend on BOTH the players's hand and the dealer's upCard
  #12  
Old November 21st, 2011, 07:59 PM
21gunsalute 21gunsalute is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
You push 0% by not hitting. I hope that helps.
Not always true. Depends on how alert the dealer is.
  #13  
Old November 21st, 2011, 09:08 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
It doesnt make a difference it is still diferrent see below:

11 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.574852433669
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.425147566331
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.149704867338 0.988730728103
*****************************
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 0.875441320009

the odds will always be diferrent because they depend on BOTH the players's hand and the dealer's upCard
You did it again, you used different dealer upcards for the 2 situations. You are comparing apples to oranges.
  #14  
Old November 22nd, 2011, 01:32 PM
Cardcounter Cardcounter is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace High View Post
What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?

What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?

Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
Hitting a 16 vs a 7 is significantly better than staying. Hitting a 16 vs a 10 is only marginally better.

With 16 you are going to lose most of your hands no matter how you play it you are going to bust the hand 62% if you hit it. But the 38% of the time that you draw a hand you will be much better off especially if drawing against a 7.

If you don't hit 16 against a 7-A ace the dealer will make a hand 75% of the time on average with those hands and beat you 80% with an ace. You will win 20%-25% of the time if you don't hit. There will be a zero percent chance of a push because the dealer must draw to 17 or higher.
  #15  
Old November 22nd, 2011, 02:55 PM
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iCountNTrack iCountNTrack is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tthree View Post
You did it again, you used different dealer upcards for the 2 situations. You are comparing apples to oranges.
Ah, I misunderstood the poster's point i thought he meant 11 vs 5 or 6, he meant 11 composed of a 5 and 6. Nevertheless, the odds will still be different because as i have mentioned they depend on BOTH the dealer upCard and the player hand.

11 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.744468761037
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.255531238963
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.488937522075 0.872318806118
************************************************** *******
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 0.875441320009

There is no systematic way to "explain" optimum decisions. Some playing decisions will sometime look weird, that is because most of the time we are overlooking some cases. A combinatorial analysis takes care of that by enumerating all possible outcomes.
  #16  
Old November 22nd, 2011, 04:59 PM
tthree tthree is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iCountNTrack View Post
Ah, I misunderstood the poster's point i thought he meant 11 vs 5 or 6, he meant 11 composed of a 5 and 6. Nevertheless, the odds will still be different because as i have mentioned they depend on BOTH the dealer upCard and the player hand.

11 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.744468761037
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.255531238963
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.488937522075 0.872318806118
************************************************** *******
16 vs 7
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 0.875441320009

There is no systematic way to "explain" optimum decisions. Some playing decisions will sometime look weird, that is because most of the time we are overlooking some cases. A combinatorial analysis takes care of that by enumerating all possible outcomes.
Thanks. I knew there would be some difference but also knew it would be fairly insignificant. Your numbers confirm this.
 

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