Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #21  
Old November 28th, 2011, 12:37 AM
chichow chichow is offline
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On second hand, say whatever you want (whether you're accurate or not is another story)

I erred and didn't review the tape (past posts)
  #22  
Old November 28th, 2011, 12:55 AM
cgy606 cgy606 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chichow View Post
*Sigh*

How can you be so absolute in what you say without knowing bet ramps or wonging or even what is considered a unit (ref. previous poll and discussion about what is a unit)?

Regardless whether or not we say is 20k or 50k, if you take a quick 3 minute look at the OP's posts (there aren't that many), you'll see that its highly unlikely that the OP has either a 20k or 50k bankroll for $25 min, much less the $50 - $100 min games that he/she thinks he/she can play.
The required bankroll for any game depends on what type of game this is (Not just the rules, but the spread and most importantly the cut cut cut cut cut!!!!!!). Cut card position vastly effects EV and also Variance (The deeper the the cut the higher the variance however, for bankroll considerations, as the cut card gets deeper the EV grows much faster per additional card cut in play then the variance does, hence for better cut games, you can actually have a higher session bankroll but a lower total bankroll because the SCORE is higher)

Also you must take into account the speed of the game. In pitch games dealt face down you can probably get 100 rounds an hour at most heads up. However in shoe games, because the cards are dealt face up and players cannot touch cards, action is much faster and you might be able to get 200+ rounds per hour head up.

To give you an idea of what type of bankroll is required to for this game (Which I believe should be 2D S17+DAS), using Hi-Lo and I18, spreading 1-6, and playing only 1 hand at all times (If you play two hands, then you must also take into account that the result of the two hands are correlated and thus there is a covariance), if they deal 1.5/2 (a fantastic game that is available in the US, but maybe not in LV) BJ Attack gives:

=2.66 per 100 & σ=29.16

For an RoR of 1% that means your BR = 734 units
For an RoR of 5% that means your BR = 478 units.

For any higher of an RoR, I would suggest that your bankroll be replenishable, otherwise the chance that you will lose say 50% of your bankroll and have to reduce your unit size will be quite large. This can effect the psyche of a player in a profound way making these numbers worthless if the player is not disciplined.

So for $25 unit size, a bankroll of at least 12k is require for this type of game. However, the conditions at these table will not be optimal (You probably wont be able to get heads up action). When playing with other players, the rounds per hour go down and furthermore, the EV will go down because in advantageous situations, the other players will be eating 10's and aces whereas in heads up situations you will get a higher proportion of advantage hands per 100.

My recommendation is that at non-peak hours, you should be able to find empty $50 min tables. A BR of about 40k would make this game vary profitable, with about $133 / hour. Your return on investment for 1 month play (Say 100 hours) is about 33%. The chance that you will be even or up at one months play is about 82%. When considering the profitability of owning certain stocks or business, nothing comes even close to that (except maybe selling drugs LOL). Not bad!!
  #23  
Old November 28th, 2011, 09:04 AM
BJgenius007 BJgenius007 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chichow View Post
*Sigh*

How can you be so absolute in what you say without knowing bet ramps or wonging or even what is considered a unit (ref. previous poll and discussion about what is a unit)?

Regardless whether or not we say is 20k or 50k, if you take a quick 3 minute look at the OP's posts (there aren't that many), you'll see that its highly unlikely that the OP has either a 20k or 50k bankroll for $25 min, much less the $50 - $100 min games that he/she thinks he/she can play.
Of course you have to assume normal circumstances applied, that include reasonable penetration, rules and spread, most important is that strongest players should have +2.25% advantage and good players should have +1.75% advantage.

This is highlight from RoR table:

For +1.75% ev

Bankroll RoR
75 Max Bets 11.422%
100 Max Bets 5.542%
125 Max Bets 2.689%
150 Max Bets 1.305%
175 Max Bets 0.633%
200 Max Bets 0.307%

For +2.25% ev

Bankroll RoR
50 Max Bets 15.571%
75 Max Bets 6.144%
100 Max Bets 2.425%
125 Max Bets 0.958%
150 Max Bets 0.378%

Long term goal of BJ players is to bet 1/4 Kelly (0.5% RoR) and has +2% ev. So the bankroll should be 150 or 200 max bets. For people playing shoe spreading $25 to $400, the bankroll requirement will be 80K. For people playing shoe spreading $10 to $200, the bankroll requirement will be 40K. For people playing DD spreading $10 to $80, the bankroll requirement will be 16K.
  #24  
Old November 29th, 2011, 07:14 PM
chichow chichow is offline
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"most important is that strongest players should have +2.25% advantage"

Read the OP's past posts:
Rigged games at a large casino http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=22289

limited bankroll
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/show...456#post250456

2 months ago posting of max bets of $90 to stay under the radar...

The math is all fine and dandy, but it simply doesn't apply in the OP's because the OP isn't one of the strongest players.
  #25  
Old November 29th, 2011, 07:22 PM
chichow chichow is offline
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Default again

Look.

I say 20k (and I should have prefaced that with heavy heavy wonging and short session).

Another poster says 12k. Then again a 1.5/2 DD game is hard to find in LV

You say 80k. Then again you mention $10 DD which is also hard to find in LV

My point is that

#1 the answer is going to vary greatly depending on the situation (OPs skill level, OPs style of play, actual playing conditions - not just the general rules at a particular casino)

#2 the OP is likely betting at levels over his bankroll whether it is 16 / 20 / 80k
 

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