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Old December 5th, 2011, 01:34 PM
ascension ascension is offline
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Default running count errors

because true count conversion requires estimation what is the cost of being off on our running count by 1, i know its important to strive for accuracy, but i was wondering how costly it is for a player to be consistently off by 1 on his running count since true count conversion is an estimation. basically is it of any significance? thanks!

Last edited by ascension; December 5th, 2011 at 01:38 PM.
  #2  
Old December 5th, 2011, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ascension View Post
what is the cost of being off on our running count by
Depends on the particular count: ranges from not much to 2*(not much).

It will be worse for a level-1 count than a level-2 count, because a single point is worth more in level-1 count.

I have seen this mentioned occasionally, and have run sims with count errors built in.

I believe such errors have little or no effect on EV. Variance is where they hurt, but not much if it's only +/-1.

Being, say 1 point too low is identical to missing a 6 that went by. This is the same thing as not having had that 6 dealt at all, which means only that you have given up 1 card worth of penetration: not good, but barely noticeable.

Lots of off-by-one true count errors would be really bad, however.
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Old December 5th, 2011, 04:02 PM
ascension ascension is offline
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thankyou friendo, so since i truncate my true count, being off by plus/minus one in my running shouldn't have a noticeable effect on my ev in shoe games particularly? it would seem to me that as you have less decks to be played being off by plus/minus 1 in your running count will have a bigger effect on your true count conversion.

Last edited by ascension; December 5th, 2011 at 04:12 PM.
  #4  
Old December 5th, 2011, 11:45 PM
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Off by one in running count is similar to an extra burn card. How much does the first burn card mess up your game?
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Old December 6th, 2011, 12:07 AM
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In a single deck game the cost of the error will be higher than for the six deck shoe games that we tend to be stuck with here in the UK. For a six deck shoe game, I would think that an error of +/-3 on the running count will have little overall impact?
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Old December 6th, 2011, 12:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ascension View Post
because true count conversion requires estimation what is the cost of being off on our running count by 1, i know its important to strive for accuracy, but i was wondering how costly it is for a player to be consistently off by 1 on his running count since true count conversion is an estimation. basically is it of any significance?
No, none ... with the proviso that its not a 'chronic' error but just random. zg
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Old December 6th, 2011, 12:42 PM
ascension ascension is offline
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thanks guys! appreciate the responses and insight :P
 

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