Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com

  #11  
Old December 5th, 2011, 02:59 PM
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aslan aslan is offline
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Originally Posted by Sucker View Post
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US goes through this, over and over. You have two choices - Get used to it, or quit playing BJ forever.

I've been playing BJ for a living for 30 years, and I STILL haven't completely gotten used to it.

BTW; it gets much worse than THIS - the only thing worse than losing is losing and out of action, due to getting barred or other reasons.
Yup! I'm having the gambler's fallacy in reverse. I have won so many sessions in a row that I am beginning to feel like I am due for a big loss or series of losses. They usually strike when I am not looking. This will be the first time they don't catch me just a little by surprise... unless I let my guard down and fall asleep again. But you can't stop it anyway. All you can do is stretch it out over a longer period of time, but when negative variance comes, it does not honor stop losses and other strategies-- it just comes and does its dirty deed.

Last edited by aslan; December 5th, 2011 at 08:04 PM.
  #12  
Old December 5th, 2011, 03:15 PM
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Quote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sucker View Post
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US goes through this, over and over. You have two choices - Get used to it, or quit playing BJ forever.

I've been playing BJ for a living for 30 years, and I STILL haven't completely gotten used to it.

BTW; it gets much worse than THIS - the only thing worse than losing is losing and out of action, due to getting barred or other reasons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aslan View Post
Yup! I'm having the gambler's fallacy in reverse. I have won so many sessions in a row that I am beginning to feel like I am due for a big loss or series of losses. They usually strike when I am not looking. This will be the first time they don't catch me just a little by surprise... unless I let my guard down and fall asleep again. But you can't stop in anyway. All you can do is stretch it out over a longer period of time, but when negative variance comes, it does not honor stop losses and other strategies-- it just comes and does its dirty deed.
yup it's a real pain in the A$$ for sure, variance and the ever threat of it.
i'll change the wording just a bit, but what i've been told when i've wimpered about variance was "Now pull the trigger ya chicken ****.....!!!! It's called a fluctuation.....get used to it!!!!!!! Geeze "

........ so i do that, even though i oft times, over & over again, don't wanna do that, i take a deep breath and pull the friggin trigger, lol.
hate that, lol, but what yah gonna do, do it & over time and plays, despite yer fear, low and behold there is money to be made.
and one thing i've found to be consoling, is maybe after a sound thrashing, is to pause and reflect on just how much loot has been accrued over the years, doing just that, pulling the friggin trigger when the time is right.
  #13  
Old December 5th, 2011, 08:41 PM
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Variance is a bitch! But also our best friend. With out variance, half the BJ players in the casino would be counters. If you think the casino's don't offer a decent game now, imagine what would happen if that were the case. Did I mention variance is a bitch!
  #14  
Old December 5th, 2011, 09:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
Variance is a bitch! But also our best friend. With out variance, half the BJ players in the casino would be counters. If you think the casino's don't offer a decent game now, imagine what would happen if that were the case. Did I mention variance is a bitch!
I have offered one of my gambling buddies some free and easy lessons in card counting, but although he sees the logic of it, he is convinced that he can do just as well or better trusting in his native instincts. He does seem to do exceedingly well employing the gambler's fallacy and his other "gambling instincts." Of course, I will never know if he has been hiding or understating his losses. As a rule, he seems to win, perhaps owing to a long enough bankroll to weather variance. But still, as an almost perfect bs player, he should be showing a long term net loss. My purpose of telling this story is to question whether it is variance that is keeping players from counting, or, as in his case, an unfounded confidence in their own native abilities. It's the same story I find in poker players: every one of them will tell you how good they are and attribute any losses to some unlucky event that Stu Unger or Doyle Brunson could not have played their way out of.

Last edited by aslan; December 5th, 2011 at 09:16 PM.
  #15  
Old December 6th, 2011, 08:38 PM
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I always feel better after reading this forum and in a couple of days I'm planning my next trip to the casinos. At least last time I did pay for the gas and got 3 days and 8 meals free.
  #16  
Old December 6th, 2011, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kewljason View Post
Variance is a bitch! But also our best friend. With out variance, half the BJ players in the casino would be counters.
Were it not for variance, non-counting and non-basic strategy players would lose every time, and blackjack would not exist at all.

The huge variance makes it possible for casual or addicted gamblers to convince themselves that they can beat, or are beating, this game, for weeks or months.

Have you visited the same casino on three different shifts, and witnessed the same person sitting there, playing a weak game, and winning!
  #17  
Old December 6th, 2011, 09:22 PM
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Speaking of variance as a friend, I finally saw the good side of him! I'm running some sims using the basic strategy trainer while using Hi-Lo lite indices and a 1-16 spread on a H17 6 deck game. I'm starting off the top of a shoe and wonging out at TC -1.

I'm starting my 14th shoe and down 55.5 units (277.5 dollars for me). When the count had gone up in earlier shoes, I just couldn't win a hand. More of the same really, the hand held sim (just dealing 4 spots of a 6 deck h17 game and wonging in at a TC of +1) lost a lot of units when I stopped (not nearly long enough for long run, but just practicing while keeping track).

The count finally starts going up and I continue my losing streak while betting more. After it goes up the 2nd time, something new happens. I start getting dealt good hands against dealer stiffs....and the dealer is actually busting! The count isn't even going down and I'm winning, I couldn't believe it! For about the last 5 hands of the shoe, I had my max bet out and didn't lose once.

After the shuffle, I added up the units. I'm now up 80 units. That was a positive swing of 135.5 units in one shoe. If I had been breaking even up until then, I would've made 677.5 dollars.

I just had to post this, as this is the first run of positive variance I've had (even just non negative variance) since I've started practicing while keeping track of the theoretical units won or lost.
  #18  
Old December 7th, 2011, 01:27 AM
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Just remember this generality. The larger your expected win, the larger the variance you will usually experience.
  #19  
Old December 7th, 2011, 08:59 AM
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Ah feels like a gypsy curse when going through negative variance, hand after hand of seemingly absurd losses with big bets out.

Good thing is it feels like the universe is aligned and in perfect order when going through + variance, dealer busting hand after hand, shooting up 100+ units in a shoe or two.

Both feel unnatural and surreal, but for some reason +variance streaks feels more surreal than -variance streak. I guess I'm kind of used to -variance, but the +variance still seems strange and unreal.

Actually the weirdest streaks I had was going almost 10 sessions without losing or winning much, now that's weird
  #20  
Old December 7th, 2011, 10:56 AM
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If one is ahead, variance should not bother one to much
 

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