Advanced Point Count Strategy

[Midnite]

JCollegeGuy - If you make the $100 bet and lose, what do you do ?

Do you wait for another loss of 10 hands in a row and bet $100 again or $200 ? (BTW I show the odds of losing 10 in a row as 1 in 1666.)

Or do you just start the Martingale with $100-200-400-800-1600-3200 after ten losses in a row ? ($6,300 if you lose 6 more hands)

Are you talking about, only the 11th bet or starting the Martingale after ten losses in a row ?

[matteotm]

the odds of losing 10 hands in a row is 1 in 1666. ?

you should play with me . the odds are about 5/1


if i could take those odds 1666/1 about me losing 10 hands in a row id take it . lol not to say its an incorrect odds, maybe im just in a bad mood because of the beating i took 2nite.

i doubled down on 11 for $200 to get a picture card.
then the dealer from a '4' pulled 21.

and from then i lost a bunch of bad beats, lol what a nightmare.

my last $50 i was dealt "14"

i pulled 3 aces in a row for 17"

stood against dealer ten........and he stilled pulled out an ace to get blackjack. go figure that one.

[BJStanko]

Originally Posted by JCollegeGuy

I've read mixed reviews in that some say that his Advanced Point Count strategy is outdated and others say that it is a very powerful system if implement correctly. Does anyone have any advice on this system compared to others?

Advanced Point Count strategies are not outdated, but they are extremely hard to use in real life situation. They are a little bit harder to master than for example HI-LO, but keeping side count of aces and than recalculating it in the true count is very hard for most of the people. Mistakes you make when using one of APC systems can be very costly. Profit that you would gain from using one of advanced point count systems is not that big at all, especially in shoe games where that difference is negleatable. They make big difference if you play exclusively hand held games (only if you do not make any mistakes using advanced card counting system), but there is a big drawback with hand held games - it is very easy to spot card counters. Almost all of card counters I know today avoid hand held games. This does not mean you should avoid hand held games, but I think that the only safe approach with hand held games would be the team play.

So, yeas go ahead and use advanced point count systems only if you are sure that you are executing it correctly (you will definitely make more money), but let me remind you ne more time, that extra profit is only obtained if you use system making aceptable amount of mistakes.
Otherwise, Hi-Lo is KING!

In my opinion, Uston APC and Hi-Opt II are the best advanced point count systems.

Any counting system you master will work just fine, so stick to one system that works best for you and that's all you will ever need. Most of discussions on counting systems are confusing and have only theoretical/ academical value.

Good Luck!

[aussiecounter]

Ah, my baited hook drew a response. Sorry about my last post though, I suppose that WAS a bit immature. I don't know if it is just me but you're wording or something just frustrated me.

I believe I did hold back on the , as I said it in the context of this being in the wrong section, and in general. Definitely in the first post anyway.

With regards to me trying to explain things you already know, WHY ASK ABOUT IT IF YOU ALREADY KNOW EVERYTHING ABOUT IT?!?!? You state that you understand the Law of Independant Trials, then you go on, IN THE SAME SENTANCE, to question it. If you understand the Law, and understand that it is a true Law, then you shouldn't have to ask those questions.

On your Martingale question. My first words on the topic:

Originally Posted by aussiecounter

The Martingale does not work for one simple reason, there is no guarantee that you will EVER get the win to get you out of your losing streak. This usually kills you when your bet gets bigger than the table limits.

To me, this is exactly WHY it doesnt work (If anyone has a better reason, feel free, but I believe it all comes back to this). Maybe I should have put it in BIG BOLD LETTERS too. I then went on to give an example of HOW. There isnt a Mathematical explanation I would think, it would have excellent odds of working (i.e. very low risk of ruin) if you had unlimited bankroll and no table limit. i.e. the odds of never getting the win are very, very small if you could go on for a hundred hands or more.

I admit to overlooking the variation reference, sorry. However, its my personal opinion that this shouldnt really be referred to as a Martingale "variation" anyway. Yes, it is defintely a negative progression, but what are the "rules" of the variation "system"? Is it a system? How much does he lose before betting to try to recoup? What does he do if he loses the $100 bet? The question you were asking using this example I believe I answered anyway; it all comes back to the Law of I.T., which you claim to understand yet refuse to accept at the same time.

[aussiecounter]

Now, to the points.

1. Below is a quote from your first post, paragraph 3 I believe. I put in these > < to mark first where you say you understand the Law, then you clearly question it. Or am I mistaken? Fair enough, you didn't say "That shouldn't work", but I thought it easier to use that as a generalism than to cut and paste a quote or something.

Originally Posted by JCollegeGuy

Okay, I remember reading a player about a player at a Roulette table where the table had hit red 9/10 times before he arrived. He continued to bet red and won but eventually broke even. He stated another gambler telling him he was dumb for continuing to bet red, to which he replied that >his odds for hitting black were 50/50 no matter what the previous outcomes were. (Law of independent trials) While I understand that,< >wouldn't you expect red and black to even out.....For example, if the game hit red 9 out of the last 10 times, wouldnt the odds be incredibly slim to hit red 16-18 out of 20? (.5 not red * .5 not red * .5 not red etc etc.) Wouldnt the odds be better for the game to even out somewhat?<

2. The only questions of mine I could find. (Below)
The first is kind of answered, but I questioned it as you continued to question things that are established (the Law of I.T. for example).
The second I don't believe was answered.
The third, I admit, may be answered by you saying your example was for a "variation". I admit I may have missed/overlooked this variation reference, but I don't think your example could really be called a variation of the Martingale anyway. Martingale is Martingale; your example takes variation a bit far for my liking. Why not just gamble all day, and then bet $10 more than what you have lost all up, is that a Martingale? (Getting off topic, that is another discussion altogether).

Originally Posted by aussiecounter

You are very confusing, are you sure you have a good understanding of blackjack, stats, math, and counting etc?
Do you know what the Martingale involves?
You say you bet 9 bets at $10 each and lost 9. How is this related to a Martingale?

3. I don't think I did really. I was just trying to help you out remember. My first post is most definitely not in that attitude, and the second I don't think is either, and was not intended to be. Cont. below.

4. Was mostly trying to provoke another response, because you hadn't replied for near 3 days. I guess it worked. :D

OK, thats enough arguing, I think we should both calm down a bit. I apologize if I seemed a bit agressive. I was just trying to help you, whether you believe that or not. I may have taken it a bit far.
There are a few interesting points we have brought up, like whether your example is a Martingale variation or not, Count assisted betting stratgies/progressions etc.
Feel free to continue with discussing those points if you are interested, and/or (try to :D ) rebuff these last two post of mine, but try not to provoke me too much (I know that might be a bit unfair of me to say that, but.... meh.)

I hope I haven't gotten you too far offside, as you seem pretty keen and would probably be a good addition to the forum, which has been pretty slow just lately.