New at ace sequencing - question about a very simple scenario....

[deadlywizard234]

I'm just wondering, what is the profitability of memorizing key cards right before an ace, in a 2 deck game, considering...

1) this person can memorize 4 key cards with perfect accuracy
2) your gathering your key card information every other shoe, and doing the big bets in the shoes between (that is you big bet when you've spotted your key card as the last card of a given hand)
3) flat betting $5 on normal hands, 2x$100 when you've spotted your key card as the last card dealt out of the hand
4) playing nothing but perfect basic strategy
5) the rules are 2D H17 DAS DOA 50% pen, a heads up game with about 150 hands per hour, no resplitting aces
6) can only go from one hand to two hands once per shoe (pretty gay). To compensate, if a situation arose where the person had bet 2x$100 and had to go back to $5, he would just bet 1x$100 if another key card came up in the same shoe.
7) The dealer is the world's most average shuffler (not good, not bad, just an average of all the dealers in the world)


If the profitability is anything decent, wondering if a person might know the volatility of this? Lets put it this way, what would be the Risk of Ruin with a $10k bankroll?

I know the Zen man is experienced with this, maybe he can help me out :D (wink wink)