Well here it is. I was bored today and decided to make a spreadsheet to prove that the casinos are losing a significant chunk of change due to bad pen. This is a 6D game and I gave the ploppies at the casino the benefit of the doubt and say they play at a disadvantage of 1%. Oh and I am also assuming full 7 player tables with an average of 2.8 cards a hand ( 22.4 cards a round). Here are the results:
Cards before the Shuffle card (0-300).... X
Casino Advantage %/100..................... a
rounds/shoe...................................... b
Shuffle time (mins) ..................... .. .... c
Average bet/player .......... ............... d
$/Shoe............................................ e
Minutes/round.................................. f
Minutes/shoe................................... g
Shoe plus shuffles / hour...................... h
% of players who are counters/100 ..... i
Average $EV/hour of counter.............. j
Pen 1 Pen 2
234_300 .............. x
0.010 0.010 ....... a
10.446 13.393 ... b
2.000 2.000....... c
20.000 20.000 ....d
14.625 18.750 .. e
1.000 1.000 ..... f
10.446 13.393... g
4.821 3.898...... h
0.001 0.001....... i
40.000 40.000 ... j
Pen 1 Pen 2
$/hour a table K 70.502 73.086
$/hour -counter L 70.466 72.864
% increase in profits by increasing pen from X1 to X2 3.665%
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to X2 (Including the counters) 3.404%
So there you have it people. A 3.5% increase in profits on a table that is dealing at 48 hands/ hour if you increased the pen to 300/312. Now obviously you can't increase the Pen to 300 but lets say you increased it to 288/312 the results would be :
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to Pen X2 3.107%
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to Pen X2 (Including the counters) 2.956%
By the way I calculated the advantage for a counter like this. I said the counter had an advantage of 1% when the Pen was at 234 cards played. Then I set up a function of counter advatnage as:
Counter advantage = 1%/ (312+10 - (Pen+10)/71)
This is not ideal but I figure it is probably a decent estimate. If the pen is 286 (.5 decks cut off) it gives a counter advtange of 2.7% That is probably close enough for this quick and dirty sim.
Also I just guessed at most of the variables in this so if anyone has more information on them please share and I will post the results with those new variables.
Well I am having trouble attaching the spreadsheet so I can email to anyone if they like or people can just give me the variables I they want to test out and I can run the numbers.
Cards before the Shuffle card (0-300).... X
Casino Advantage %/100..................... a
rounds/shoe...................................... b
Shuffle time (mins) ..................... .. .... c
Average bet/player .......... ............... d
$/Shoe............................................ e
Minutes/round.................................. f
Minutes/shoe................................... g
Shoe plus shuffles / hour...................... h
% of players who are counters/100 ..... i
Average $EV/hour of counter.............. j
Pen 1 Pen 2
234_300 .............. x
0.010 0.010 ....... a
10.446 13.393 ... b
2.000 2.000....... c
20.000 20.000 ....d
14.625 18.750 .. e
1.000 1.000 ..... f
10.446 13.393... g
4.821 3.898...... h
0.001 0.001....... i
40.000 40.000 ... j
Pen 1 Pen 2
$/hour a table K 70.502 73.086
$/hour -counter L 70.466 72.864
% increase in profits by increasing pen from X1 to X2 3.665%
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to X2 (Including the counters) 3.404%
So there you have it people. A 3.5% increase in profits on a table that is dealing at 48 hands/ hour if you increased the pen to 300/312. Now obviously you can't increase the Pen to 300 but lets say you increased it to 288/312 the results would be :
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to Pen X2 3.107%
% increase in profits from Pen X1 to Pen X2 (Including the counters) 2.956%
By the way I calculated the advantage for a counter like this. I said the counter had an advantage of 1% when the Pen was at 234 cards played. Then I set up a function of counter advatnage as:
Counter advantage = 1%/ (312+10 - (Pen+10)/71)
This is not ideal but I figure it is probably a decent estimate. If the pen is 286 (.5 decks cut off) it gives a counter advtange of 2.7% That is probably close enough for this quick and dirty sim.
Also I just guessed at most of the variables in this so if anyone has more information on them please share and I will post the results with those new variables.
Well I am having trouble attaching the spreadsheet so I can email to anyone if they like or people can just give me the variables I they want to test out and I can run the numbers.