Effect of Error Rate

#1
I have recently been learning (memorizing) BJ basic strategy. Obviously, to become proficient, involves many hours of practice. My thinking is that the foundation for advantage play is being able to play basic strategy near perfectly. To actually do that in a Casino environment while counting cards (also near perfectly if the player is to get a real advantage) the strategic play must be essentially automatic.

The key phrase in the above discussion is "NEAR PERFECT". Human beings are not machines and mistakes will be made. It has been estimated that for every five operations a human performs, there is an average of one error. Now a 20% error rate would be a disaster in executing a playing strategy but, even with many hours of practice, I believe that actual perfect play (i.e. - never making an error) is not possible for the vast majority of players.

At this point, my error rate is somewhere around 2%. I believe that with diligent practice I can get this rate to the 0.5% to 0.2% rate. I have become convinced however, that I probably will never get the rate to zero.

In playing situations, I observe that when making an error it does not always turn out badly. That is, all strategies are based on probabilities. So even if you chose the wrong play based on the strategy for one round, you may still win that particular round.

With that background, my question is this: has anyone done any calculations as to what effect human error rate in strategic play has on the expected outcome? Is there any nice rule of thumb measure that says for instance, for every 1% error rate in execution of the strategy, there is a -0.5 change in player expectations (or something like that)?
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#2
Cost of Error

I've seen this documented in "Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling, Winning Ways" by Andrew Brissman. The table is expressed in cost in winnings to the player for each $100,000 wagered.

There are 15 "mistakes" listed with losses per $100,000 wagered ranging from $279 for always taking insurance, to $5 for doubling 11 vs ACE in a mult-deck game.

If this will help you, PM me and I'll key the table for you.
 
#3
counting - error

Unfortunetly I can't remember the source for this as it was one of the FIRST things I read about card counting but I'm pretty sure it's true. I read that 1 counting mistake an hour will negate a card-counters advantage. 2 or more mistakes an hour swings the advantage back in favor of the house. For this reason, so said the article, casino's won't automatically bar a counter these days. They try to determin a counter's skill level first and only bar the one's who are successful to the point of being a threat. While some amature counters aren't worth makeing a scene over, the particularly bad one's may actually receive an invitation to a comped room in the hotel untill their bankroll runs dry...

It seems the casinos will mercilessly exploit any advantage they can find... <sigh>

If any one knows the source for this let me know as I want to RE-read it. In the mean time I'm giving up a chance to go to AC this friday for this reason alone.....

Hope this helps,
Raven
 
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