Online Blackjack cheater

mickpk

Active Member
#81
okay, just to clarify:
the example we've been going with, 100 match 100...

bet 100, until my bankroll reaches 100 or i hit my target (600)

so basically i bet a maximum of half my bankroll or 100 dollars at any given point (whichever is less). however if my bankroll gets down to something like 25 bucks i can just bet it all.

That's how I play them. When I get down to my last $25 or so (unless the bonus and target were smaller to start with in which case I'll go lower), I put it all on the line. How you minimise the leakage of house edge is to play a variation of BJ (where possible, not always, unfortunately) that has a low house edge but demands less doubling eg D9 and/or no DAS rules. But, that won't always be available. Some guys move to Baccarat at that stage (if the game is allowed to be played) as the house edge is 1.06% for that wager. I always stick to BJ but I am aware that when I don't double/split on that last hand that I am, overall, sacrificing a tiny amount of house edge. Remember, the house edge increases by about 2% if you never double or split. If you only not do it on the final $25 bet but have done it for the other $5000 (or whatever amount) then the impact on your overall edge is much less.

If you are only just starting out then you may wish to become comfortable with the strategy and style of play, and achieve a few more profits, by going for x2 target (that's where I started), or even x2.5. Any target is ok, it doesn't have to be a precise number like x3. And, if you've completed a majority of the WR but are only half a winning hand away from your target then a lot of people (myself included) settle for that slightly lower target and grind from there. The variations in choices and personal styles of play are quite large and some people take whatever higher profit they feel like, others keep going and take the risk of busting from being as close as a few dollars away from their target, in the knowledge that the time will come when by continuing the higher bets, that they will achieve/overshoot their target on a future play. You overshoot your target when you hit a blackjack on the final hand and the extra payout takes you past the target. Doubles/splits also achieve this. That $2400 I mentioned earlier, my target was only $1800 but I had $1200 in the bank, split 8's, doubled on both (all $1200 on the table) and won to go all the way to $2400. Such things will happen.

This topic title doesn't suit what most of the subject matter has been about. Perhaps we either start a different thread or if it's just a discussion between myself and you then if you want advice to suit your personal choices and style of play and don't want to publish your financial situation then we can continue via PM. I don't mind, either way.
 
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bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#82
scottH, i'm sure you remember the little discussion we had about the 100/100 cashable bonus about a month ago. you took the stand that the expected profit a player can see from such a bonus is fixed (bonus - house edge multiplied by WR). however, mick and i were on the side that said doubling up your bonus would give you a greater expected profit (while also increasing your variance obviously).

just to get some closure to this issue.... i had asked the Wizard of odds this question about a month ago, and he finally replied....

"A question I had asked in http://www.blackjackinfo.com has caused a huge debate among card counting gurus there and I was hoping you can resolve it....

I am wondering what has the greater expected return(not including amount of time player spends on bonus) in the world of bonus hunting:



Example:

100 match 100 cashable BJ (0.005 HE) bonus, WR 5000

1. grind it out at 2 dollar bets (exp. profit $75)

2. Try to double it up on blackjack, and then grind it out(exp. profit approx $87).



thanks.

PS. if you want to read the actual thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=719&page=3"

his response....

"I stronlgy perfer #2. Personally I would try double it about four times over
before going into grind mode."
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#83
bluewhale said:
scottH, i'm sure you remember the little discussion we had about the 100/100 cashable bonus about a month ago. you took the stand that the expected profit a player can see from such a bonus is fixed (bonus - house edge multiplied by WR). however, mick and i were on the side that said doubling up your bonus would give you a greater expected profit (while also increasing your variance obviously).

just to get some closure to this issue.... i had asked the Wizard of odds this question about a month ago, and he finally replied....

"A question I had asked in http://www.blackjackinfo.com has caused a huge debate among card counting gurus there and I was hoping you can resolve it....

I am wondering what has the greater expected return(not including amount of time player spends on bonus) in the world of bonus hunting:



Example:

100 match 100 cashable BJ (0.005 HE) bonus, WR 5000

1. grind it out at 2 dollar bets (exp. profit $75)

2. Try to double it up on blackjack, and then grind it out(exp. profit approx $87).



thanks.

PS. if you want to read the actual thread:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=719&page=3"

his response....

"I stronlgy perfer #2. Personally I would try double it about four times over
before going into grind mode."
That's just personal preference of how much you want to make. The 75 EV was too low for him, so he suggested to double up about 4 times before grinding it out because he didnt think it was worth it for only 75 dollars.

A better question to ask is, does betting it all and then grinding it out actually CHANGE the EV of the bonus. That's the question I thought you were trying to prove to me, as I made my stance clear that you can't change the EV of a cashable bonus by betting any differently.

Thanks for coming back to the thread. But it would be nice if you asked the question more like the one I posted. Maybe you should ask him that question I just posted, and refer him to this thread.

So maybe ask something like this "Is it possible to change the EV of a cashable bonus by betting differently? For example, betting it all on the first hand and then grinding down the bonus if it wins"
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#84
Also you didnt really ask him a fair question, you put in your conclusions in the question by putting (expected profit 75) after number 1 and (expected profit 87) after #2. Of course #2 is better if you ASSUME that #2 will make more. But the question was not which is better, 75 or 87. The question was does the EV actually increase to 87 if you bet it all on the first hand. And I still cant see why it would.

I hope you ask him the rephrased question, and repost his answer. It doesn't matter to me really since I no longer do bonuses, but I would like conformation that I am right! :D
 

bluewhale

Well-Known Member
#85
ScottH said:
That's just personal preference of how much you want to make. The 75 EV was too low for him, so he suggested to double up about 4 times before grinding it out because he didnt think it was worth it for only 75 dollars.

A better question to ask is, does betting it all and then grinding it out actually CHANGE the EV of the bonus. That's the question I thought you were trying to prove to me, as I made my stance clear that you can't change the EV of a cashable bonus by betting any differently.

Thanks for coming back to the thread. But it would be nice if you asked the question more like the one I posted. Maybe you should ask him that question I just posted, and refer him to this thread.

So maybe ask something like this "Is it possible to change the EV of a cashable bonus by betting differently? For example, betting it all on the first hand and then grinding down the bonus if it wins"
i asked him again, although i don't expect to hear back from him... at least not for a month anway.....

"sorry, i really hate to be replying, but you didn't answer my question. simply put,
Does betting it all and then grinding it out actually CHANGE the EV of the bonus?
i.e. should you expect to see a long term profit increase by playing cashable bonuses as "stickies" or would your profit remain constant?

hope to see an answer as a quite a few ppl now have taken stances on this issue at blackjackinfo.com... the thread is here if you are interested... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=23575#post23575"
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#86
bluewhale said:
i asked him again, although i don't expect to hear back from him... at least not for a month anway.....

"sorry, i really hate to be replying, but you didn't answer my question. simply put,
Does betting it all and then grinding it out actually CHANGE the EV of the bonus?
i.e. should you expect to see a long term profit increase by playing cashable bonuses as "stickies" or would your profit remain constant?

hope to see an answer as a quite a few ppl now have taken stances on this issue at blackjackinfo.com... the thread is here if you are interested... http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=23575#post23575"
Great! I am looking forward to a response, I really hope he gives one.
 
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