Initial running count

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#1
This is so simple of a question & board manager if the vote is to delete & please do so. Question> I play at a casino dealing out of a 6 deck shoe. Using Knockout now. The IRC is minus 20 key count is minus 4 . Would I be stronger if I just started advancing at 0?. Plus 20 - 20 = 0. Any + after that would I not give myself a stronger edge & just have a larger bet spread. Pogo
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#3
pogostick said:
This is so simple of a question & board manager if the vote is to delete & please do so. Question> I play at a casino dealing out of a 6 deck shoe. Using Knockout now. The INC is minus 20 key count is minus 4 . Would I be stronger if I just started advancing at 0?. Plus 20 - 20 = 0. Any + after that would I not give myself a stronger edge & just have a larger bet spread. Pogo
You mean "IRC" not INC. It won't make a difference. Start at 0 and use +16 as your key count.

The only difference is if you divide by the number of decks left (and turn it into a TC) you have to start at a specific IRC.
 

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#4
assume_R said:
You mean "IRC" not INC. It won't make a difference. Start at 0 and use +16 as your key count.

The only difference is if you divide by the number of decks left (and turn it into a TC) you have to start at a specific IRC.
Thank's assume> + 16 just seems a little weak > I thought maybe if I start at O & use + 20 as key count I may be able to have a larger spread. May have to wong it out for a while to get the count . I don't pay any mind to the true count using KO .
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#5
pogostick said:
Thank's assume> + 16 just seems a little weak > I thought maybe if I start at O & use + 20 as key count I may be able to have a larger spread. May have to wong it out for a while to get the count . I don't pay any mind to the true count using KO .
I'm not sure you're following. You need 16 extra good cards for it to be profitable. Starting at -20 and waiting till -4 is the sameas starting at 0 and waiting till +16...
 

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#6
assume_R said:
I'm not sure you're following. You need 16 extra good cards for it to be profitable. Starting at -20 and waiting till -4 is the sameas starting at 0 and waiting till +16...
I know that,just thought would be a little stronger if I moved it up to + 20 starting at 0. Oh well, no big deal >may just start at + 18 LOL
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#7
pogostick said:
I know that,just thought would be a little stronger if I moved it up to + 20 starting at 0. Oh well, no big deal >may just start at + 18 LOL
Do you have the ability to run a sim or cvcx? That will help generate betting ramps for you (essentially what to bet at each count). For each bet ramp, you can find out what your EV per hour is, and your Risk of Ruin.
 

Wookets

Well-Known Member
#8
pogostick said:
This is so simple of a question & board manager if the vote is to delete & please do so. Question> I play at a casino dealing out of a 6 deck shoe. Using Knockout now. The IRC is minus 20 key count is minus 4 . Would I be stronger if I just started advancing at 0?. Plus 20 - 20 = 0. Any + after that would I not give myself a stronger edge & just have a larger bet spread. Pogo
What do mean by advancing? Ramping your bet?

The key count is where the player first realizes an advantage in the shoe, so optimally that is the best time to start the ramp. Delaying the ramping from -4 to 0 will cause you to lose out on some EV. The pivot point (RC = 4) is where you have reliable knowledge about the composition of the remaining deck, and thus is why your max bet will be out at this point. If you're concerned about your spread looking too large by ramping earlier at -4, consider wonging at RC = 0 and spreading 1-4 up until RC = 4 with a max bet. If the count drops below 0 just flat bet until -4 and then get out of there. Note: this isn't an optimal approach as it detracts from your BC but it's effective for a couple reasons: (1) Your minimum bet will appear large which can help with comps and (2) Your spread will appear to be smaller which helps with camo.
 
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