Isn't BJ crazy, but predictable

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
#1
Isn't Blackjack crazy, when you play much ?
I predict aces at handshuffled games and CSM's.
The casino with handshuffling is far away from my home, so I go there
once in 14 days.
The last day I was there I hit many aces, but lost 12 units.
I was disappointed and doubted at my abilities.
Nearly the same at my home casino with a CSM, I hit more than
every 13 upcard an ace., but many days in the last 14 days I lost money.
But I think it's only standard deviation.
My problem, I bet 2 spots, when I expect an ace and so far the standard deviation is
high.
I think it's better to bet only one spot.
And what happened today ?
I saw the key cards and bet the first spot, got an ace, the dealer got an ace too
I got a ten card, the dealer not.
The second time I bet and got an ace and the second card was a ten card.
The third time I saw the key cards, bet, got the ace, the dealer too, I got
the ten card, the dealer not.
I never was so lucky, OK it doesn't depend on luck but of prediction.
What I want to say, BJ is crazy, but you get your profit, if you are purposive
and in the short run, if you have a high advantage.
regards rainer
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#3
Not possible.
I'm not saying that CSM's aren't beatable - i'm sure there are a few teams out there nailing them, but you can't key against a shuffle you can't watch.
For a start there's no way to tell if your sequence (keys) have been broken up by the shuffle. You are just blindly assuming that it hasn't been - and this is assuming only an automatic shuffler not a CSM. With a CSM most of them these days use carousels style systems so your sequence is almost assured to be broken. If your sequence wasn't broken - assume a 15 card packet went in to one carriage in order and had your sequence within it - you would have exactly 4 cards, no cards in between, to land your ace. Simply not enough time to steer it. You’d have to start steering every time you saw your first key and even then you'd have a dismal success rate.

RJT.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#4
keying on csms'

I have looked and did a little research on the csms' and found them to have a slight chink in the armor. The ablity to predict the cards and key cards is dependent on your ablilty to memorize segements and put together segments that follow each other. You can do a patent search on the machine and theorize on segmented shuffles I don't think it is within my capabilities as of yet. I think in theory you really need a machine and track all results from it in order to have a true oppinion. I did the patent search on both bj shuffler and three card poker machines. blackchipjim
 

Elhombre

Well-Known Member
#5
Beat the CSM

RJT, you mustn't know how the machine shuffles, you have to control the
results of the shuffle and if someone is able to do this, he has a good
advantage
The advantage is not as high as at handshuffled games.
But sometimes I am very very surprised how I hit the aces and sometimes there is nothing.
The 3 blackjacks in a row before 2 days was a result of my abilities
not of chance.

OK ,I make a big mistake that I post it in a board.

But I feel a bit like a lonely wolf and I am happy to know this forum here
and to know people like Sonny, Zengrifter, AutomaticMonkey and more
here and get answers.
:joker: If I would post this at Snyder or Schlesinger there would be no answers
because they want to built a wall of silence about the topic of ace prediction
generally.
(Its the same as Bush or Bernake never would admit now that the $$$$
is dead, sorry gang, but buy gold for your money now).

Till before 3 month my home casino had the ShuffleStar, but I made a
mental mistake.
To track this machine you must remember the key cards before the ace, because the cards are inserted from the end of the shoe to the front.

In future I should shut my mouth about this topic, its better for my survival.
The best to all
rainer
:cool2: :joker: :devil:
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#7
I'm afraid that you'd have to do a lot more than some vague comment about success to convince me that this would work.
These machines - as far as i'm aware - do not use a riffle shuffle, so your cards remain in order in small packets. That being the case, even with 3 key cards to predict the ace, it just doesn't give you enough forewarning that your aces is coming to really influence where it lands (well possibly if you were playing heads up....). Even if your team controlled the table the ace is likely to end up coming out when you can't steer it to be one of your first cards.
If you've got something revolutionary to say on the topic, honestly i'm all ears and what i've said is not meant in any way as a personal attack, but from my experience and understanding of steering, this just doesn't seem feesable.

RJT
 
#8
RJT said:
I'm afraid that you'd have to do a lot more than some vague comment about success to convince me that this would work.
These machines - as far as i'm aware - do not use a riffle shuffle, so your cards remain in order in small packets. That being the case, even with 3 key cards to predict the ace, it just doesn't give you enough forewarning that your aces is coming to really influence where it lands (well possibly if you were playing heads up....). Even if your team controlled the table the ace is likely to end up coming out when you can't steer it to be one of your first cards.
If you've got something revolutionary to say on the topic, honestly i'm all ears and what i've said is not meant in any way as a personal attack, but from my experience and understanding of steering, this just doesn't seem feesable.

RJT
CSM play is among the blackest of the black arts and I would strongly advise against giving more than the vaguest details.


Who steers aces? I predict aces.

Well, OK, occasionally I do steer aces in the course of play, but when I do, it's usually to the dealer. Steering aces to the dealer is a powerful tactic.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#9
Automatic Monkey said:
CSM play is among the blackest of the black arts and I would strongly advise against giving more than the vaguest details.


Who steers aces? I predict aces.

Well, OK, occasionally I do steer aces in the course of play, but when I do, it's usually to the dealer. Steering aces to the dealer is a powerful tactic.
Ok AM - i put as much faith in what you say as i ever do *sigh*
You have corrected me on one point i'll concead though - i'm thinking steering rather than just predicting when they'll come out.

RJT.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#10
Automatic Monkey said:
.......
Who steers aces? I predict aces.
.......
so i guess there would be some advantage according to number of players at the table? like 7 players advantage = ?/7, 6 players advantage = ?/6, ......
and what is the advantage if you know your going to get an ace? circa 50%.
just blabbering here. :confused:
 
#11
sagefr0g said:
so i guess there would be some advantage according to number of players at the table? like 7 players advantage = ?/7, 6 players advantage = ?/6, ......
and what is the advantage if you know your going to get an ace? circa 50%.
just blabbering here. :confused:
Yes it's around 50% a little more or less depending on the rules. 1 in 13 first cards being aces is more than enough, as long as you know when you're going to get them, sometimes.

Steering is fine but it requires extra hands in the game that are not getting the ace, and all those people need to be paid too so it's unlikely you'll steer enough extra aces to your hands to justify splitting up the loot 3-4 ways.
 

MAZ

Well-Known Member
#12
Automatic Monkey said:
Yes it's around 50% a little more or less depending on the rules. 1 in 13 first cards being aces is more than enough, as long as you know when you're going to get them, sometimes.

Steering is fine but it requires extra hands in the game that are not getting the ace, and all those people need to be paid too so it's unlikely you'll steer enough extra aces to your hands to justify splitting up the loot 3-4 ways.
Your statement leads me to believe you don't know jack about predicting or steering aces. You leave a lot to be desired with your indecision. Either way you go with playing the aces, being wishy washy and dealing in terms of sometimes will get you in trouble. Steering beats predicting, regardless if you play multiple hands. You just need to know what hands are worth to your advantage. Most can't do either methods so I don't think its an issue anyway. By the way AM, what the hell is with the black art talk, you sound like a freaking overdramatic schoolgirl playing dungeons and dragons with lines like that. Especially when not a post on this thread approaches the reality of beating CSM's.
 
#13
MAZ said:
Your statement leads me to believe you don't know jack about predicting or steering aces. You leave a lot to be desired with your indecision. Either way you go with playing the aces, being wishy washy and dealing in terms of sometimes will get you in trouble.
When you steer aces, sometimes you only get to predict an ace, not determine where it falls. When you predict aces, sometimes you get to steer one. I usually steer mine to the dealer when I get an opportunity.

MAZ said:
Steering beats predicting, regardless if you play multiple hands. You just need to know what hands are worth to your advantage.
It all depends. Sometimes the extra expense of steering makes it not worth taking that approach and you're better off using a classic ace prediction method.

I'm curious, what's your first language? You type with a German accent.

MAZ said:
Most can't do either methods so I don't think its an issue anyway. By the way AM, what the hell is with the black art talk, you sound like a freaking overdramatic schoolgirl playing dungeons and dragons with lines like that. Especially when not a post on this thread approaches the reality of beating CSM's.
Exactly. People who beat CSM's don't talk about it. So I fully expect you to begin talking about it. I just wanted to make sure RJT knew no one was going to give him secrets of beating CSM's here.
 

MAZ

Well-Known Member
#14
Automatic Monkey said:
When you steer aces, sometimes you only get to predict an ace, not determine where it falls. When you predict aces, sometimes you get to steer one. I usually steer mine to the dealer when I get an opportunity.



It all depends. Sometimes the extra expense of steering makes it not worth taking that approach and you're better off using a classic ace prediction method.

I'm curious, what's your first language? You type with a German accent.



Exactly. People who beat CSM's don't talk about it. So I fully expect you to begin talking about it. I just wanted to make sure RJT knew no one was going to give him secrets of beating CSM's here.
Wrong on all counts slim, big surprise. Maybe if you sat less behind your keyboard handing out generic advice you might catch on to the real game. Although with almost 2000 posts you must make a great jammy player. You make me laugh, at least you got that going for you.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#15
Automatic Monkey said:
I just wanted to make sure RJT knew no one was going to give him secrets of beating CSM's here.
That funny because the one thing i was expecting when i posted on this thread was you to come along and post some absolute garbage on the subject - and boy was i right about that.
If i want to find out some secret about play, one thing i can assure you - it's not the regular posters on this forum, or any other for that matter that i speak to.

RJT.
 
#16
RJT said:
That funny because the one thing i was expecting when i posted on this thread was you to come along and post some absolute garbage on the subject - and boy was i right about that.
If i want to find out some secret about play, one thing i can assure you - it's not the regular posters on this forum, or any other for that matter that i speak to.

RJT.
So do you guys sell a program for beating CSM's?
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#17
Automatic Monkey said:
So do you guys sell a program for beating CSM's?
Hey, i don't need to know jack about beating CSMs to work out that you don't know any more than me. But keep up the pretense that you know what you're doing - now that i rarely post, it really gives me a kick reading your post's.

RJT.
 

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
#18
When you say steering aces to the dealer, does this mean stearing the dealer and ace when you know hes gogin to draw an additional card? because that to me seems the only way it would be advantageous to you, can somebody explain that?
 
#19
Ferretnparrot said:
When you say steering aces to the dealer, does this mean stearing the dealer and ace when you know hes gogin to draw an additional card? because that to me seems the only way it would be advantageous to you, can somebody explain that?
Yes, you got it. If the dealer is showing 9-10 and you have an opportunity to give him an ace, you do it. Because if he has to draw the best he can get is a 17, and if he has a stiff he's just going to have a worse stiff. This is only valuable in certain very special situations.
 

MAZ

Well-Known Member
#20
Automatic Monkey said:
Yes, you got it. If the dealer is showing 9-10 and you have an opportunity to give him an ace, you do it. Because if he has to draw the best he can get is a 17, and if he has a stiff he's just going to have a worse stiff. This is only valuable in certain very special situations.
Are you freaking kidding? What the hell makes you think the best a dealer gets showing a 9 or 10 is a 17? Giving a dealer an ace is just not the right move. Unless you know the holecard, an ace will give the dealer a chance to draw possibly more than once, which you don't want. Steering a 10 to the dealer is the right play in this situation. If the dealer needs to hit then its a gaurantee to bust with a dealer 10 showing, and the only card that can beat you with his 9 would be a 2. If there is no need for a dealer draw, then give yourself the 10 next round.
 
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