21st Century Blackjack

#1
Has anyone read Twenty-first Centruy Blackjack by Walter Thomason. Basically the guys used to not believe progression but now he is promoting it and as we all know progression betting doesnt really work when you hit that long loosing streak.

Has anyone read the book and is it worth the read/money?
 

traynor

Active Member
#4
It is an interesting site, with one caveat.
<quote>It is oft asked what does running one billion hands matter when I won't play that many in my entire life. The point is to increase the accuracy of the estimate of what will happen in the short-term.<end quote>

That statement is in direct violation of most modern decision-theory. In particular, what Tversky and Kahneman call the "Law of Small Numbers." It is also fairly well explored in Russo and Schoemaker's "Decision Traps." Or in almost any standard textbook on inferential statistics. In essence, the belief that short-run results will replicate long-term results is a myth. Wildly popular and almost universal, but a myth nonetheless.

Not my idea. I had it hammered into my head by some very short-tempered professors in graduate management classes. Useful stuff.
Good Luck
 

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#5
traynor said:
It is an interesting site, with one caveat.
<quote>It is oft asked what does running one billion hands matter when I won't play that many in my entire life. The point is to increase the accuracy of the estimate of what will happen in the short-term.<end quote>

That statement is in direct violation of most modern decision-theory. In particular, what Tversky and Kahneman call the "Law of Small Numbers." It is also fairly well explored in Russo and Schoemaker's "Decision Traps." Or in almost any standard textbook on inferential statistics. In essence, the belief that short-run results will replicate long-term results is a myth. Wildly popular and almost universal, but a myth nonetheless.

Not my idea. I had it hammered into my head by some very short-tempered professors in graduate management classes. Useful stuff.
Good Luck
Short-run results may not replicate long-run results, but by simming more hands you get a more accurate idea of what your short-term results SHOULD BE. The point of simming 1 billion hands is not to show what will happen to anyone in the shortrun, it's just to get accurate information about what you should expect in the short run.
 
#6
andrew999 said:
Has anyone read Twenty-first Centruy Blackjack by Walter Thomason. Basically the guys used to not believe progression but now he is promoting it and as we all know progression betting doesnt really work when you hit that long loosing streak.
Thomason used to claim that he COULD PROVE his progression worked WITH PC SIMS, but he never produced the sims and stopped making the claim, to my knowledge. zg
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#7
traynor said:
the belief that short-run results will replicate long-term results is a myth.
Heavens, who said short-run will replicate long-term? The point is the more events you sim, the closer you will be to average short-term results. And, the better the calculation of standard deviation. But, there will always be a non-zero standard deviation.

traynor said:
That statement is in direct violation of most modern decision-theory.
Incidentally, I believe the most commonly used decision-making software in use (based on Analytical Hierarchical Process) was developed by me.
 
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