EV and SD for flat-betting 17,000 hands

hi Matt,

i'm not for sure since i haven't heard of this done in terms of shoes, but what your saying seems reasonable.

like i know that's how you'd approach the problem if you was talking about some given number of hands.
like if you know the standard deviation per round in units was say 3.719 units.
then if you wanted to know what one standard deviation for 17 hands was, you'd go...

3.719unit * SQRT(17) = 15.334 units.

if you wanted to know what two standard deviations was for 17 hands all you'd have to do is multiply the one standard deviation value by two, or if you wanted to know three standard deviations for 17 hands you'd just multiply the one standard deviation value by three.

Yes.

Assuming all shoes are the same number of rounds. And SD per round is the same.

Never thought of doing it by shoe but why not if u want?

On the other hand, why not just estimate rounds played shoe by shoe as, maybe, number of players per shoe may vary?

If back-counting, etc the number of rounds played per shoe "seen" might not be as much of a constant as you assume.

If it is the same constant number of rounds as the first shoe had, shoe after shoe after shoe, in same game etc, then fine.