Craps Direct Bet and Match Play

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#1
So I've started to get direct bets (free bets offered by the casino) and match plays (where I have to put up half of the wager, to win the full amount) a lot more, and I have a question about them. Let's say I put them on the pass line, which has a 1.4% house edge.

So let's say I have a $30 direct bet. That is essentially (1 - .014) * $30 = $29.58 as positive EV, right? A $30 match play (+$60 if I win, -$30 if I lose) would be (1 - .014) * $60 - $30 = $29.16 as positive EV, right?

My real question is if I should also put up my own money on the odds bet. In the positive, if they offer 10x odds, I can reduce the house edge from 1.4% to .18%. But now I have 10x the free money of my own at risk. So my EV changes to (1 - .0018) * $30 = $29.95 but I also have higher variance because I have $300 swings of my own money. Without the odds bet, the coupons can't possibly increase my RoR, but with my own money on the line it can in fact increase my RoR. So if that $300, for example, is a significant part of my bankroll, kelly theory would probably say not to take the odds bet. But if that $300 isn't a significant part of my bankroll, and I can weather that variance, I probably should play the odds bet. At what point does it become worth it to reduce the house edge?

And as an aside, yes I know the craps pass line isn't necessarily the best bet to play a match play or comp coupon, but let's just entertain this for the sake of the thread :)
 
#2
The odds bet doesnt change the EV at all. It has a 0 EV. Take it at what level you are comfortable playing. You dont have to take full odds. It doesnt change the HE on your base bet either it does on the overall money in play(odds plus line).
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#3
tthree said:
The odds bet doesnt change the EV at all. It has a 0 EV. Take it at what level you are comfortable playing. You dont have to take full odds. It doesnt change the HE on your base bet either it does on the overall money in play(odds plus line).
Okay, so there is actually 0 benefit to putting any of my own money at risk for these comp coupons? It has 0 EV, but some variance, for my own money and hence it would be stupid to play it? What do you mean "Take it at what level you are comfortable playing"?
 
#6
It is a fair bet if you are there to gamble dont over bet your odds. If you are there to extract as much +EV from match plays and coupons dont take odds.
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#7
tthree said:
It is a fair bet if you are there to gamble
Ha not me.

tthree said:
If you are there to extract as much +EV from match plays and coupons dont take odds.
Okay. Thanks for your help tthree. These are only for table games so it's either craps pass line or baccarat bank or maybe blackjack (but without paying full amounts on some things, so it's not actually worth it).
 
#8
With blackjack you can use your money for offensive doubling and splitting. They have a positive EV. Some are defensive though like splitting 88 v T. You dont want to use your money for a defensive split. Match plays usually get the blackjack bonus not sure about your coupons. Take the match plays to the blackjack table. If you get even money for blackjack consider doubling it, they are calling it 11 or 21 not blackjack. This is the best way to stretch the value of what you have. Only double the blackjack when it is a positive EV for total bet. Not sure what to tell you but dealer stiffs are likely.
 

Brock Windsor

Well-Known Member
#9
tthree said:
With blackjack you can use your money for offensive doubling and splitting. They have a positive EV. Some are defensive though like splitting 88 v T. You dont want to use your money for a defensive split. Match plays usually get the blackjack bonus not sure about your coupons. Take the match plays to the blackjack table. If you get even money for blackjack double it, they are calling it 11 or 21 not blackjack. This is the best way to stretch the value of what you have.
I would say never double your blackjack even if it pays even money. It will win so long as the dealer does not have blackjack, you don't have to worry about pushing a dealer 21.
-BW
 

pogostick

Well-Known Member
#10
assume_R said:
So I've started to get direct bets (free bets offered by the casino) and match plays (where I have to put up half of the wager, to win the full amount) a lot more, and I have a question about them. Let's say I put them on the pass line, which has a 1.4% house edge.

So let's say I have a $30 direct bet. That is essentially (1 - .014) * $30 = $29.58 as positive EV, right? A $30 match play (+$60 if I win, -$30 if I lose) would be (1 - .014) * $60 - $30 = $29.16 as positive EV, right?

My real question is if I should also put up my own money on the odds bet. In the positive, if they offer 10x odds, I can reduce the house edge from 1.4% to .18%. But now I have 10x the free money of my own at risk. So my EV changes to (1 - .0018) * $30 = $29.95 but I also have higher variance because I have $300 swings of my own money. Without the odds bet, the coupons can't possibly increase my RoR, but with my own money on the line it can in fact increase my RoR. So if that $300, for example, is a significant part of my bankroll, kelly theory would probably say not to take the odds bet. But if that $300 isn't a significant part of my bankroll, and I can weather that variance, I probably should play the odds bet. At what point does it become worth it to reduce the house edge?

And as an aside, yes I know the craps pass line isn't necessarily the best bet to play a match play or comp coupon, but let's just entertain this for the sake of the thread :)
I be darn! Something else I hadn't thought about. If I have a $25 match play ,will they count that as $50 play & let me take $500 odds Or will they only let me take $250 odds on my $25. HMMMM. 10xodds
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#11
tthree said:
With blackjack you can use your money for offensive doubling and splitting. They have a positive EV. Some are defensive though like splitting 88 v T. You dont want to use your money for a defensive split. Match plays usually get the blackjack bonus not sure about your coupons. Take the match plays to the blackjack table. If you get even money for blackjack consider doubling it, they are calling it 11 or 21 not blackjack. This is the best way to stretch the value of what you have. Only double the blackjack when it is a positive EV for total bet. Not sure what to tell you but dealer stiffs are likely.
Even money on blackjacks are not the same as a 21, as they can't push with dealer 21's (other than another BJ). Also, depending on the casino, getting 8,8 v X with a MP could be even better than if you were playing with cash. Some casinos allow you to split for only the cash portion of the original wager while some require the full amount. If you have a defensive split like 8,8 v X and you can split for half the amount, that is a great discount. On the other hand, doubles may not be worth it if you cant double for the full amount i.e. A,2 v 5.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#12
I'm not sure I agree with the math above, specifically the (1-.014) figure. So with a house edge of 1.4% you have a (1 - .014) = 98.6% chance of winning the hand? That's a red flag to me. It should be closer to a 50/50 shot for the Pass/Don't bets.

The probability of winning a Pass bet is 49.29%, so the EV of the direct bet should be closer to $14.79 depending on how the casino handles ties. The matchplay should be closer to $15.28, again depending on ties.

-Sonny-
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#13
Sonny said:
I'm not sure I agree with the math above, specifically the (1-.014) figure. So with a house edge of 1.4% you have a (1 - .014) = 98.6% chance of winning the hand? That's a red flag to me. It should be closer to a 50/50 shot for the Pass/Don't bets.

The probability of winning a Pass bet is 49.29%, so the EV of the direct bet should be closer to $14.79 depending on how the casino handles ties. The matchplay should be closer to $15.28, again depending on ties.

-Sonny-
So how do you come up with that? You did (0.50 - HouseEdge/2) to get .4929?

And what do you mean ties? It's either you win if you get a 7,11 ; you lose if you get 2,3 ; another number (a point) is rolled, you win if that point gets rolled again before a 7.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#14
assume_R said:
So how do you come up with that? You did (0.50 - HouseEdge/2) to get .4929?
I did it the easy way - I copied it from Shackleford's page (where he does it the hard way).:grin:

http://wizardofodds.com/craps/appendix1.html

assume_R said:
And what do you mean ties?
My mistake. The ties only apply to the Don't bets, not the Pass. Since the direct bet is only based on a win the EV is still correct. The matchplay bet drops to about $14.36.

-Sonny-
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#15
Okay, thanks. Got it. Silly me, the correct equation for a direct bet (without any ties in this game) is:

Win - (1 - Win) = -1.41%
2 * Win - 1 = -1.41%
Win = 50% - 1.41% / 2 = 49.29%

Thanks Sonny.
 
#17
Thanks for correcting me everyone . It was late and I was tired causing a few copy his technique errors. I want him to have the best info. I also learned a few things that I hadnt considered. Please point out any errors I make. I am here to learn!!! I am very smart but have volumes to learn and lots of experts of far greater ability to help me in the accumulation of knowledge. Dont be discouraged if I stick to my guns. It is only after I go away and ponder things that my perception usually changes.
 
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