In defense of progression systems.

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#1
All players use some sort of progression system.

Counters use a progression based on the count. If a counter bets only during
a plus count, he could even win flat betting.
If they play all hands, regardless of the count, they can only win by using a bet-spread that recovers all hands lost during negative counts and even positive count losses.

BS non-counting players must also use an appropriate progression system that eventually recovers all previously lost hands in order to win.

The distribution of winns and losses determines the outcome, not the mathematics. Mathematics hasn't proved that progression systems don't work.

A large bankroll coupled with a large bet-spread and knowledge of the game
is more likely to produce a positive outcome, while a small bankroll is likely to
give a negative result, regardless of wether you're a counter or not.
 

Friendo

Well-Known Member
#3
jomoats said:
Mathematics hasn't proved that progression systems don't work.
No. Mathematics has proven that any sequence of bets at a negative-expectation game, with little to no correlation to the player's advantage on each hand, will lose money.

It makes no difference whether you flat bet or vary your bet according to previous wins and losses. Unless your bet varies closely with your actual advantage, you're dead meat.
 
#4
Friendo said:
No. Mathematics has proven that any sequence of bets at a negative-expectation game, with little no correlation to the player's advantage on each hand, will lose money.

It makes no difference whether you flat bet or vary your bet according to previous wins and losses. Unless your bet varies closely with your actual advantage, you're dead meat.
It is easy to prove mathematically that any progression that doesn't correlate to your advantage is a loser. I've posted many forms of this. I am not doing it again. How many times do they have to see it?
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#5
Friendo said:
No. Mathematics has proven that any sequence of bets at a negative-expectation game, with little no correlation to the player's advantage on each hand, will lose money.

It makes no difference whether you flat bet or vary your bet according to previous wins and losses. Unless your bet varies closely with your actual advantage, you're dead meat.
Actually, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, I believe it's been shown here that progressions lose exponentially more money in the long run than flat betting.
 
#6
21gunsalute said:
Actually, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, I believe it's been shown here that progressions lose exponentially more money in the long run than flat betting.
You lose proportional to your average bet. Since you lose more than 50% of the time and most double their bet with each lose each added increased bet adds more to your expected losses than the previous bet did. It would be made at more than half the frequency at double the bet.
 
#8
tallmanvegas said:
I don't care what anyone says, it's all about results, not what should have happened
Tallman
If you are lucky enough to be ahead with a progression system, be smart and get out before the math inevitably catches up with you. Read the threads written by the believers. They all regret not heeding good advice.
 
#9
tallmanvegas said:
I don't care what anyone says, it's all about results, not what should have happened
Tallman
Your only problem is that results are in the short term and as you keep playing, you start entering long term territory wherein you have a very small chance of being up overall. So either learn a true, mathematically proven form of AP or do yourself a favor and follow tthree's advice!

Just because you win the lottery once doesn't mean you should buy more tickets with your winnings.
 

tallmanvegas

Well-Known Member
#11
21gunsalute said:
And therein lies the problem.
Man also said the earth was flat, couldnt go to the moon, and couldnt fly.

Who said i only do a progression, who said i dont count. Maybe im inquisitive in all ideas and concepts of this game.

The number dont lie niether do the results

Tallman
 
#12
I commented on correlating your bets to player advantage but you never said you never said anything. I think everyone took that as an admission that you don't do this. Math doesn't change working because you want it to. The advances you speak of came from a better understanding of not discarding math or science. Your analogy is flawed.
 

Friendo

Well-Known Member
#14
tallmanvegas said:
Man also said the earth was flat, couldnt go to the moon, and couldnt fly.
No, uninformed pre-mathematical dark-ages people said that: those who believed in sorcery, demons, goblins, and eye of newt.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#15
jomoats said:
All players use some sort of progression system.
Wow, what a blast from the past! I thought you had been banned from all the forums years ago. Your performance on Wong's site was some of your best work to date. Let's preserve that legacy and not ruin it with these cheap re-writes. Your years of trolling will live on forever.

Banned.

-Sonny-
 
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