Effect of Removal

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#1
How is EOR calculated for each card?
Do different rules like H17 or S17 change the percentage?
Do the percentages change with the amount of decks?
How is the ace effected with different payouts for blackjack, 3-2, 6-5 or 1-1?
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#2
SystemsTrader said:
How is EOR calculated for each card?
Do different rules like H17 or S17 change the percentage?
Do the percentages change with the amount of decks?
How is the ace effected with different payouts for blackjack, 3-2, 6-5 or 1-1?
I am not sure if this is how it is done, but running a simulation with a full deck then removing a single card and running the sim again will show you the EOR of that card.

As for H/S 17, With H17 games, I would assume aces are slightly less valueble since dealer aces are a little more dangerous, although obviously not enough to offset their huge player advantage. I also think small cards are more dangerous as well, since they give the dealer more opportunity to improve that soft 17.

Adding decks would decrease the EOR of the cards. Consider if it was an infinite deck. If you take out a 5, did the deck become more advantageous?

With higher payouts on BJ's, the EOR of aces definately increase due to the much higher value of the blackjack.

I don't really have any numbers on these nor did I do any EOR studies, so what I said could be wrong. However, I believe I am right about these questions. Anyone else have any input?
 

iCountNTrack

Well-Known Member
#3
SystemsTrader said:
How is EOR calculated for each card? ?
The effect of removal for a given card rank is calculated by calculating the EV before the removal of the card rank and then after the removal of that rank, and then taking the difference so EOR=EV_after-EV_before
Can be done using combinatorial analysis or sims.
SystemsTrader said:
Do different rules like H17 or S17 change the percentage??
The value of each card is heavily dependant on the game rules, so the EOR of a certain rank will change depending ont the rules
SystemsTrader said:
Do the percentages change with the amount of decks??
yes they do because the effect of removing one card from a single deck would be much more pronounced than removing it from an 8 deck shoe. That is why card counters love SD games, opportunities rise much faster!!!
SystemsTrader said:
How is the ace effected with different payouts for blackjack, 3-2, 6-5 or 1-1
The bigger the BJ payout the larger is the effect of removal, who cares about aces anymroe if BJ only payed 1:1 :)

Edit: Sleight beat me :)
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#4
Another method

EORs are sometimes calculated as average EORs as well. For example, in a SD game you might remove all four 8s and divide that EOR by 4 to get the average EOR for that card. There can be a dramatic difference between the two methods of calculation in some games or side bets. For example, imagine removing one 7 from a SD game that has a 7-7-7 side bet. Now remove three 7s. Big difference, right? The EV just dropped to zero even though there is still one 7 left. That huge swing will have a big impact on the EORs so you need to take that into consideration in some cases.

-Sonny-
 
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