Monster rebound

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#1
I experienced what was for me, a monster shoe very recently. (Don't want to give the exact day) Unlike anything that I had experienced before. Went from down 268 units for the year to +188 units, a 456 unit swing, wiping out a whole January of losing, in only half a shoe, or about 12 minutes. :) During better than 2 dozen hands of max bets, I lost one, pushed one and won the rest including a couple doubledowns. Surprisingly, I didn't receive any BJ's despite the very high count. There were some other unusual occurrences that took place during that shoe I can't share at time, for obvious reasons, but would like to at a later time. :eek:

This was unlike anything I had experienced before. I did win close to 400 units in a 24 hour period during a snow storm in AC last winter, but this recent event, happened in only a few minutes. Was definitely a new experience for me and one I hope to repeat soon. :laugh:

Hard to find anything negative about an experience like this, but there were a couple things that concerned me. One was that I felt exposed much more than I like to be. I left at the end of the shoe as I always do after a high count, but the extended high count along with a pretty slow time at the casino, and a pretty sizable win (for me), left me feeling exposed. I think I will avoid that location for a bit, similarly to if I had been backed off. The second negative was that I was unable to regain my composure afterwards, experiencing unusual emotions, much like a child on Christmas morning. I thought it best to take a break for the remainder of the day, even though I had planned to play much longer. Hopefully I can learn and improve on that. :eek: But all in all I will accept those negatives for a similar experience any day. :)

add on--- for clarification purposes, the "unit" that I speak of is my small or minimum wager of my bet spread, not the ZG definition of unit, which is the amount wagers at TC of +2. :laugh: (I only wish I had won 456 of those units!)
 
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paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#4
Congrats Jason

That sounds like a very enjoyable shoe :grin: Obviously you didn't hit the cage with your entire winnings to avoid that dreaded CTR.

I can surely understand your delight in winning that much at once and the need to take the day off to recover from the glee.

I've had two similar shoes in terms 400+ unit wins but my unit is much smaller than yours (no inuendo intended, wiseasses).

Congrats again and I wish you many more
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#5
Way to go Jason! I'm 2 or 3 times your age and I would have experienced the same emotions as you did.
I'll watch for future details from you about this. Sure made for a happy day for you, didn't it.

BillyC1
 

forwhat77

Well-Known Member
#6
Kewl,
Congrats man!!! I can only imagine what if feels like! Must have been some kinda of euphoric high!
May the cards continue to be with you the remainder of the year...
 

peaegg

Well-Known Member
#7
fantastic!

That's just great when cards behave. Let me imagine how it went. You were playing heads up or started with one or two players. Counts went up in the first deck while you lost not many hands. Table mates all quit because of the losses. Once the counts call for a max bet, you push the chips out without hesitation. From then on, you win almost every hand. The running count dropped gradually but the TC still high enough to maintain the max bet. At the end of the shoe, the count become close to zero or even negative.

If your spread is 1-10, you would need at least 40 rounds to win that many units. That's why I assume you were playing heads up for 4 decks. Of course you could have used higher spread.

Congratulations to your big swing back!
 
#9
kewljason said:
I experienced what was for me, a monster shoe very recently. (Don't want to give the exact day) Unlike anything that I had experienced before. Went from down 268 units for the year to +188 units, a 456 unit swing, wiping out a whole January of losing, in only half a shoe, or about 12 minutes. :)
Thorp BTD: "A distinct characteristic of the system showed to be moderately
heavy losing streaks followed by winning streaks of dazzling brilliance."
 
#10
kewljason said:
add on--- for clarification purposes, the "unit" that I speak of is my small or minimum wager of my bet spread, not the ZG definition of unit, which is the amount wagers at TC of +2. :laugh: (I only wish I had won 456 of those units!)
That was BP's definition. I use min-bet unit definition also, but a more scientific definition
might be either average bet or max bet. How many max bets was your swing? zg

Uston: "Ahh, the swings!"
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#11
peaegg said:
That's just great when cards behave. Let me imagine how it went. You were playing heads up or started with one or two players. Counts went up in the first deck while you lost not many hands. Table mates all quit because of the losses. Once the counts call for a max bet, you push the chips out without hesitation. From then on, you win almost every hand. The running count dropped gradually but the TC still high enough to maintain the max bet. At the end of the shoe, the count become close to zero or even negative.

If your spread is 1-10, you would need at least 40 rounds to win that many units. That's why I assume you were playing heads up for 4 decks. Of course you could have used higher spread.

Congratulations to your big swing back!
Thanx everyone. :) My spread is a little larger than 1-10, peaegg. It was like 28 top wagers. :) Started the shoe with one other player and he remained for the whole shoe. I don't really know how he fared for the shoe, but seemed to be enjoying it. Dealer broke quite a few times, so he may have done well also. There were a couple other interesting things that I will share at a later date.

About my concerns. I was playing unrated, so that is helpful, but it is a store that I visit often, hence my desire to take a little break from there. Probably overly cautious on my part, but that's ok. :eek:
 

forwhat77

Well-Known Member
#12
Kewl,
Kind of off the path here, but may I ask how you handle paying yourself? In other words, do you dedicate a certain portion of your EV to pay yourself for living expenses/lifestyle?
 

pit15

Well-Known Member
#13
Why don't you play rated kewl?

For your level of play (red chip right?) the comps would probably help you out a lot with expenses. A free meal is like an hour worth of EV for you.

And the danger of getting backed off is people working there recognizing you. Who cares if you burn the name or player card, those 2 things are easily changed. People recognizing your face is the real problem.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#14
zengrifter said:
That was BP's definition. I use min-bet unit definition also, but a more scientific definition
might be either average bet or max bet. How many max bets was your swing? zg

Uston: "Ahh, the swings!"
You are right, ZG. It was bigplayer who said that. My apologies to you sir. :eek: He never did explain it, although someone suguested it was due to wonging in, which made sense.

What's in a unit anyway? I use x unit spreading 1-16 in shoe games, but use the same unit spreading 3-16 in DD games. (basically 1-5) So is my DD unit a 3-16 spread or a 1-5 spread with a 3x unit? :confused:It all works out in the end. :eek: (hopefully)
 

paddywhack

Well-Known Member
#15
kewljason said:
About my concerns. I was playing unrated, so that is helpful, but it is a store that I visit often, hence my desire to take a little break from there. Probably overly cautious on my part, but that's ok. :eek:
I think erring on the cautious side is fine. Whether or not your win was that memorable to them is beside the point. It may have been more or less memorable, but I think it's best to let the memory fade. Good plan.
 

forwhat77

Well-Known Member
#16
pit15 said:
Why don't you play rated kewl?

For your level of play (red chip right?) the comps would probably help you out a lot with expenses. A free meal is like an hour worth of EV for you.

And the danger of getting backed off is people working there recognizing you. Who cares if you burn the name or player card, those 2 things are easily changed. People recognizing your face is the real problem.
lol....
 

BJLFS

Well-Known Member
#17
pit15 said:
Why don't you play rated kewl?

For your level of play (red chip right?) the comps would probably help you out a lot with expenses. A free meal is like an hour worth of EV for you.

And the danger of getting backed off is people working there recognizing you. Who cares if you burn the name or player card, those 2 things are easily changed. People recognizing your face is the real problem.
Good points!
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#18
forwhat77 said:
Kewl,
Kind of off the path here, but may I ask how you handle paying yourself? In other words, do you dedicate a certain portion of your EV to pay yourself for living expenses/lifestyle?
I have seperate living expense money and BR funds. I move a portion of my EV several times a year from my BR to personal funds, but only when I am winning. I don't want to compound BR shrinkage by withdrawing from bankroll during losing periods. I am prepared to go through a whole year without taking funds from bankroll, but hopefully that won't happen anytime soon. I did have an extended period last year my BR didn't grow, basically flatlining with a dip and rebound for 8+ months. I didn't withdrawl any funds, but I did tighten up my belt a little on my personal spending, like cutting down club nights to once a week. :laugh:

pit15 said:
Why don't you play rated kewl?

For your level of play (red chip right?) the comps would probably help you out a lot with expenses. A free meal is like an hour worth of EV for you.

And the danger of getting backed off is people working there recognizing you. Who cares if you burn the name or player card, those 2 things are easily changed. People recognizing your face is the real problem.
I play green to black, pit. The first 5 years of my career, I played mostly AC and had a very small rotation of stores that I played. and didn't want to compound the frequency of my visits by playing rated, choosing to give up some comp/free play/matchplay EV for longevity. I only played rated at one property for room comps. When I relocated to vegas I initially stuck with that same mentality, playing rated just enough to get some meals. I have just recently started playing rated a little more to earn some EV from mailers, but have have a core group of places that I don't want to burn out and still play unrated at. This was one of them.
 
#19
kewljason said:
You are right, ZG. It was bigplayer who said that. My apologies to you sir. :eek: He never did explain it, although someone suguested it was due to wonging in, which made sense.

What's in a unit anyway? I use x unit spreading 1-16 in shoe games, but use the same unit spreading 3-16 in DD games. (basically 1-5) So is my DD unit a 3-16 spread or a 1-5 spread with a 3x unit? :confused:It all works out in the end. :eek: (hopefully)
1-16 6D/1-5 2D is too much for wonging, too little for play all, maybe
perfect as a hybrid blend estimate. 20+ max bets swing, sounds like? zg
 

pit15

Well-Known Member
#20
Well again, getting a new player's card is easy, the employees remembering you after a back off is the PITA part.

For green / black action the EV from offers is substantial. The mailers you get in a month can be worth days worth of EV for you now, not to mention not paying a cent for anything ever in a casino.

This coming weekend in AC I got about a grand in match plays, and I'm willing to bet you put in far more action then I do (since I spend a lot of time scouting, you spend most of your time actually playing).
 
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