Buzzer, my experience has been very similar to yours, with the exception that I use KO and my betting ranges are a bit higher than yours, but usually well below the recommended ranges for counters. I too have been winning and trying to understand why, and whether it is just luck and will eventually reverse on me.
In BJ with perfect BS the house edge is only about a half percent. In addition, with counting one can take advantage of knowing when to alter basic strategy, for example, when to take insurance, and when to hit 16 against a ten. Also, even if one does not play the recommended bet in a high positive count, say 10X, for 6-deck, it still does help to bet a more conservative increased bet, say, 3X. In addition, one can always leave the table when it goes really negative, as both you and I do. All these small factors eat into the house's half percent edge, if not slightly overcome it. Now comes the kicker. What if the game thus devised is so close that it tends to go up and down, sometimes in the black and sometimes in the red during any given session? It one could achieve this see-saw effect, what would stop him from simply quitting on one of the swings in his favor?
I got this idea from a gambler I play pool with. I know I have the best of a particular game, but he found a way to beat me at it. Even though I have the best of the game, it is still close enough to create this see-saw effect until I finally pull ahead in the "long run." What this fellow started doing to me was this. We would play "races" in which the pay off would be $200. As the games went on, I would be up $200, then he would be up $200. It would go back and forth like that, then he would just quit when the swing was in his favor. In other words, he would never let it go to the long run, realizing that I had him "locked up." After a few sessions, each with him quitting when the swing was $200 in his favor, I realized what he was doing to me. Even though I had him locked up in the long run, he was the consistent winner because he knew when to quit. I had to stop playing him, even though I had the best of the game.
I am thinking this same strategy can be applied to any gambling game where you can achieve a see-saw effect. Of course, one needs to know how wide the average swings are to be able to know when it is appropriate to quit. I am wondering if this is why I, and maybe you, are winning when the numbers say we shouldn't be winning. Or is it just that we have been lucky? If it is the latter, now may be the time to quit while we are ahead. lol
Also, don't be too sure that this whole idea isn't just another form of voodoo gambling. I have yet to successfully simulate my play, but it is not that easy because the simulation programs are difficult to set up to accommodate all the quirks in my overall strategy. It is still a work in progress.
In BJ with perfect BS the house edge is only about a half percent. In addition, with counting one can take advantage of knowing when to alter basic strategy, for example, when to take insurance, and when to hit 16 against a ten. Also, even if one does not play the recommended bet in a high positive count, say 10X, for 6-deck, it still does help to bet a more conservative increased bet, say, 3X. In addition, one can always leave the table when it goes really negative, as both you and I do. All these small factors eat into the house's half percent edge, if not slightly overcome it. Now comes the kicker. What if the game thus devised is so close that it tends to go up and down, sometimes in the black and sometimes in the red during any given session? It one could achieve this see-saw effect, what would stop him from simply quitting on one of the swings in his favor?
I got this idea from a gambler I play pool with. I know I have the best of a particular game, but he found a way to beat me at it. Even though I have the best of the game, it is still close enough to create this see-saw effect until I finally pull ahead in the "long run." What this fellow started doing to me was this. We would play "races" in which the pay off would be $200. As the games went on, I would be up $200, then he would be up $200. It would go back and forth like that, then he would just quit when the swing was in his favor. In other words, he would never let it go to the long run, realizing that I had him "locked up." After a few sessions, each with him quitting when the swing was $200 in his favor, I realized what he was doing to me. Even though I had him locked up in the long run, he was the consistent winner because he knew when to quit. I had to stop playing him, even though I had the best of the game.
I am thinking this same strategy can be applied to any gambling game where you can achieve a see-saw effect. Of course, one needs to know how wide the average swings are to be able to know when it is appropriate to quit. I am wondering if this is why I, and maybe you, are winning when the numbers say we shouldn't be winning. Or is it just that we have been lucky? If it is the latter, now may be the time to quit while we are ahead. lol
Also, don't be too sure that this whole idea isn't just another form of voodoo gambling. I have yet to successfully simulate my play, but it is not that easy because the simulation programs are difficult to set up to accommodate all the quirks in my overall strategy. It is still a work in progress.
