Poker Variance

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#1
Hey guys, just starting to get a little more serious with online poker. Got myself a HUD, and have tracked about 7.5k hands. My stats are 17.5/13.7/4.42 for a 25NL FR table, which I believe is a standard TAG. Im just curious, Im not a really good player yet, currently down about 4 buyins, what is the SD like in online poker? Is there any kind of N0 value that is estimated for players?
 

Nynefingers

Well-Known Member
#2
I did a brief search at 2+2 and it looks like standard deviations per hundred hands are somewhere in the 35-50 PTBB range, or roughly 1 stack per hundred hands. N0 isn't something generally discussed in the poker world (at least I haven't heard of it there), but I don't see why you can't calculated it just like you would for BJ. For example, if your EV is 3PTBB/100 hands = 0.03 PTBB/hand, and your SD is 50 PTBB/100 or 5 PTBB/hand, then you know what you need to calculated N0. N0=(SD/EV)^2=(5/.03)^2=27778 hands. That might be a slightly high estimate for SD, and I don't know how that winrate compares in the current games. That should give you a starting point though.
 

DeTalores

Well-Known Member
#3
What kind of hands are you losing big pots with?
I usually just go see which hands have lost me the most money in my HH, and then see how I played it and how the opponent played it so it won't happen again. Once you get more hands, and a feel for your limit its good to be sitting around the 20/18. As you move up in stakes the players get trickier and make different plays, so moving up through the micro stakes is a good way to become a solid TAG player.

Also are you getting rakeback at the site you're playing at?
 

mjbballar23

Well-Known Member
#4
SleightOfHand said:
Hey guys, just starting to get a little more serious with online poker. Got myself a HUD, and have tracked about 7.5k hands. My stats are 17.5/13.7/4.42 for a 25NL FR table, which I believe is a standard TAG. Im just curious, Im not a really good player yet, currently down about 4 buyins, what is the SD like in online poker? Is there any kind of N0 value that is estimated for players?
Sleight

Swings of +/- 5 buy ins are normal but once your downswing approaches 10 buy ins you need to really start looking at your hands cause you likely have leaks you need to work out. During a 75k hand stetch at 100nl FR i never had a downswing of more than 6 buy ins. Hope this helps. Also, are you playing on Pokerstars or Full Tilt?
 

Lonesome Gambler

Well-Known Member
#5
Sleight, keep in mind that 7.5K is pretty miniscule, and it's easy to be down a few buy-ins in just a single session. Your variance will depend on your style. A standard TAG style is generally not too high in the variance department, and you don't seem to be in too much trouble yet. My suggestions:

- If you're multi-tabling (I'm assuming that you must be at 25NL!), try to reduce the amount of tables that you play. I'm comfortable with 8 tables, but I try to play 4 when possible, as my thought process isn't as rushed. You can then add more tables as your results improve.

- Make use of the "mark hands for review" function in your tracking program. Review these hands and hands where you lost or won more than 20 or so BB. Make sure you got it in as a favorite. Play around with Pokerstove when you do this, since you're mathematically inclined.

- Check your stats after playing at a table for a while. I have my HUD configured to also display table stats at the top (VP$IP, PFR, rake). Take a look at which players are around you. If you find yourself playing at a 15%VP$IP table with 3 regs to your right, you might be better off moving to a better table.

- If you're playing at Stars or FTP, spend some time figuring out how the regs are thinking and start worrying about how to take their money. This is more important at 50NL and up, but there are plenty of competent regs at 25NL playing a standard 2+2 style. Use that to your advantage because you'll not always be playing with terrible players. I just took a very large pot from a well-known player/DC coach yesterday because I knew the line he was taking and the line that it looked like I was taking. This won't be the foundation of your play, but it will keep your profit steady in between pots with bad players.

Good luck!
 

fubster

Well-Known Member
#6
SleightOfHand said:
Hey guys, just starting to get a little more serious with online poker. Got myself a HUD, and have tracked about 7.5k hands. My stats are 17.5/13.7/4.42 for a 25NL FR table, which I believe is a standard TAG. Im just curious, Im not a really good player yet, currently down about 4 buyins, what is the SD like in online poker? Is there any kind of N0 value that is estimated for players?
that's pretty loose for full ring. FR sucks anyway, games are so reggy and nitty. FR variance is fairly low, but with those stats your swongs will be hudge.

you can find you SD in HEM/PT (whichever you use)
 

fubster

Well-Known Member
#7
DeTalores said:
What kind of hands are you losing big pots with?
I usually just go see which hands have lost me the most money in my HH, and then see how I played it and how the opponent played it so it won't happen again. Once you get more hands, and a feel for your limit its good to be sitting around the 20/18. As you move up in stakes the players get trickier and make different plays, so moving up through the micro stakes is a good way to become a solid TAG player.

Also are you getting rakeback at the site you're playing at?
you must be thinking 6max... 20/18 at FR is absurd
 

fubster

Well-Known Member
#8
mjbballar23 said:
Sleight

Swings of +/- 5 buy ins are normal but once your downswing approaches 10 buy ins you need to really start looking at your hands cause you likely have leaks you need to work out. During a 75k hand stetch at 100nl FR i never had a downswing of more than 6 buy ins. Hope this helps. Also, are you playing on Pokerstars or Full Tilt?
haha, you run okay i guess.

swings of 10 buyins are absolutely normal. again, these are all questions that i'd need more information to answer more accurately. at fullring, 10bi downswings are not at all uncommon. if you don't have a few 10bi downers, you're probably not winning as much as you could be.

maybe a bad example, but say you've played 100 hours of +EV BJ and never lost more than 100 units... would you think "wow this guy sure is good" or would you think "wow this guy is pussing out on a ton of +EV spots"

no offense or anything, you're probably a winning player but just think about it. PM me if you want some more specific advice.

oh btw- just a bit of an introduction since these are my first posts here. i'm a professional poker player, i play heads-up nl anywhere from 100nl to 600nl. met lonesome gambler IRL and he introduced me to counting (and other AP stuff) and i'm very interested in expanding my horizons.
 

fubster

Well-Known Member
#9
Lonesome Gambler said:
- Make use of the "mark hands for review" function in your tracking program. Review these hands and hands where you lost or won more than 20 or so BB. Make sure you got it in as a favorite. Play around with Pokerstove when you do this, since you're mathematically inclined.
if i can add something: make sure you got it in as a favorite vs his range. if you find that you're getting it in as a favorite vs what you perceive as his range and realize that you're WAYYY off as to what his range is, then you need to work on handreading a bit. again, PM me, i'm genuinely happy to help as much as i can.

if his range is crazy weak and you get it in and happen to run into the top of his range, whatever. it happens, so be it. don't second guess that kinda stuff.

- If you're playing at Stars or FTP, spend some time figuring out how the regs are thinking and start worrying about how to take their money. This is more important at 50NL and up, but there are plenty of competent regs at 25NL playing a standard 2+2 style. Use that to your advantage because you'll not always be playing with terrible players. I just took a very large pot from a well-known player/DC coach yesterday because I knew the line he was taking and the line that it looked like I was taking. This won't be the foundation of your play, but it will keep your profit steady in between pots with bad players.

Good luck!
if by DC coach you mean "the guy who founded deuces cracked" haha...

this is generally good advice, but it's very easy to wrap yourself up in this and do some monstrously horrible things. trust me, i've been there.

don't out-level yourself. that's the biggest flaw in most up-and-coming players. they out-think themselves and then get into these super weird spots and try to justify it with some sort of hyper-specific "super read."

the best thing you can do is get a subscription to a training site, post on 2+2, and play 4 tables max (or 6 at fullring, or 1 at HU) and work entirely on improving your game without regard to bankroll growth

and, as always, feel free to PM me with anything. i may not (yet) be able to give back to the AP community, but i'm confident i can help people out with their poker game.
 
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