Casino Promo Evaluation

wwcd

Well-Known Member
#21
OK, I finally tried this promo for the first time, got stuck on the seat for 3 hours as it’s too much fun waiting for the suited blackjack for the suit of the week! Most interesting part was, people never cheered for the non-suited blackjacks. When someone got a regular blackjack, they were like “mehh, I guess I’ll take it” :) In the evening, the table was packed pretty much the whole time, with everyone seemed to be knowing about and enjoying the promo, good players and ploppies alike.

I think the rules are more lax than it seemed to us. So, all the suited blackjacks in the “suit of the week” get 3X payout (not only the royal blackjack). All other suited blackjacks get 2X payout. So, 4 out of 64 possible blackjacks get 3X, as opposed to our initial thinking of 1 out of 64.

Also, it looks like this place silently added surrender to its rules. I found about it very recently when a seemingly good player surrendered. I didn’t even know about it, and since the dealer confirmed, I came back on the promo night with all surrender BS moves memorized (this is my first time playing with surrender). I made a lot of use for this one, with curious looks from other players. Apparently 99% of their players don’t know that they have this rule. And 99.9% doesn’t surrender at all (most don’t know, some know but act macho saying “I never surrender”).

Since they offer surrender, the normal house edge is now 0.58%. And based on my full understanding of the rules, my calculation of the player edge is 0.31% at the promo times, which sounds great!

I’m a BS player and am kind of scared from the variance on blackjack, so my bets varied from $3 to 2 hands of $6, but I probably averaged $4. Now, if an AP with a big bankroll plays this game, I’m sure he’ll be betting table max, but it’ll stand out like crazy because this is a small shop and the pit watches closely.

By the way, I was able to get one 3X payout within three hours and it feels great! There were lots of 3X and 2X payouts on the table, I was the one with the least luck on those. But despite that, I ended up with $50+ profit.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#22
errrr … You said:

"if an AP with a big bankroll plays this game, I’m sure he’ll be betting table max, but it’ll stand out like crazy because this is a small shop and the pit watches closely. "

An AP does not get himself barred by betting the Table Max. Not anywhere.
betting Table Max is suicidal anywhere, whether it is $50 in some tiny truck stop sawdust joint with one table, or $50,000 (at the Caesars $5,000 minimum table at) Caesars Palace.

I always set a discrete fraction of the Table Max as my Personal Max, set to the paranoia level of the store in question.
 

wwcd

Well-Known Member
#23
FLASH1296 said:
errrr … You said:

"if an AP with a big bankroll plays this game, I’m sure he’ll be betting table max, but it’ll stand out like crazy because this is a small shop and the pit watches closely. "

An AP does not get himself barred by betting the Table Max. Not anywhere.
betting Table Max is suicidal anywhere, whether it is $50 in some tiny truck stop sawdust joint with one table, or $50,000 (at the Caesars $5,000 minimum table at) Caesars Palace.

I always set a discrete fraction of the Table Max as my Personal Max, set to the paranoia level of the store in question.
I mentioned that because I thought the sweat is mainly for altering the bets. If you start with $300 right off the bat and keep it throughout the game, and play BS, do you think they'll still sweat the player? I'm talking about not applying index plays, since the BS has +ve advantage right at the beginning.

And as long as you don't alter your bets, even if you were applying some of the index plays, I think it might fly.

But of course, the whole casino floor will be watching you at this shop if you bet $300/hand. However, will that lead to barring? Probably not, unless you alter between $25-$300.

So, if I was a professional player with tens of thousands of dollars dedicated to BJ, hence if I wasn't afraid of the variance and played all the positive player edge games, I would've flat bet a significant amount at this shop during this promo, since the player edge is pretty significant right at the start.
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#24
wwcd said:
I mentioned that because I thought the sweat is mainly for altering the bets. If you start with $300 right off the bat and keep it throughout the game, and play BS, do you think they'll still sweat the player? I'm talking about not applying index plays, since the BS has +ve advantage right at the beginning.

And as long as you don't alter your bets, even if you were applying some of the index plays, I think it might fly.

But of course, the whole casino floor will be watching you at this shop if you bet $300/hand. However, will that lead to barring? Probably not, unless you alter between $25-$300.

So, if I was a professional player with tens of thousands of dollars dedicated to BJ, hence if I wasn't afraid of the variance and played all the positive player edge games, I would've flat bet a significant amount at this shop during this promo, since the player edge is pretty significant right at the start.
.31% is not significant. Its lower than what you get when you CC at an average game, and most people are not betting up to table max even for their max bets. Anyway, although I am not experienced in this aspect, I would agree that I wouldn't expect hugeheat for betting table max, once they realize you are not changing your bets. However, the eye in the sky is probably watching everything.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#25
SleightOfHand said:
.31% is not significant. Its lower than what you get when you CC at an average game, and most people are not betting up to table max even for their max bets. Anyway, although I am not experienced in this aspect, I would agree that I wouldn't expect hugeheat for betting table max, once they realize you are not changing your bets. However, the eye in the sky is probably watching everything.
.31 is not significant? This is more than H17 adds to the house edge, and the way some people seem to talk here making a game H17 turns a house from a candy store to a burn joint! :laugh:
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#26
Blue Efficacy said:
.31 is not significant? This is more than H17 adds to the house edge, and the way some people seem to talk here making a game H17 turns a house from a candy store to a burn joint! :laugh:
lol a .31% advantage is not significant enough to flat bet table max, which is what the OP was saying
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#27
Small casinos are frightened of being at risk of losing money.

The Casino Manager tells his Shift Managers, who tells his Table Games Managers,
who tells his Pit Boss(es) to set the table max so low because he does not want the
“EXPOSURE” to a significant loss. The Casino Manager truly believes that his job is to
PROTECT the casino’s bankroll from the predations of rabid Card Counters and Lucky Patrons alike.

He would rather his casino profits by $10,000 daily than to net $80,000 weekly;
but with the chance that there will be days when his store will show little or no profits.

This short-sighted small-mindedness is rampant in small town casinos.

If you played by Flat Betting a game at the table max, they would 86 you if:
a) you played too long or b) you won “too much“.

“Too much“ = their “choke point” — Usually that is several times the table max. In this case, probably $1,000.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#28
FLASH1296 said:
Small casinos are frightened of being at risk of losing money.

The Casino Manager tells his Shift Managers, who tells his Table Games Managers,
who tells his Pit Boss(es) to set the table max so low because he does not want the
“EXPOSURE” to a significant loss. The Casino Manager truly believes that his job is to
PROTECT the casino’s bankroll from the predations of rabid Card Counters and Lucky Patrons alike.

He would rather his casino profits by $10,000 daily than to net $80,000 weekly;
but with the chance that there will be days when his store will show little or no profits.

This short-sighted small-mindedness is rampant in small town casinos.

If you played by Flat Betting a game at the table max, they would 86 you if:
a) you played too long or b) you won “too much“.

“Too much“ = their “choke point” — Usually that is several times the table max. In this case, probably $1,000.
You can't fault a casino that size for wanting to reduce variance, especially if it is frequented by APs in a no heat atmosphere.
 
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