am I making mistakes?

Bondy3

Well-Known Member
#1
Hi,

I have been playing a lot of 6D H17 Double on anything, RSA, pen 75-80%

I spread 1-10 (yes, I know its too agressive, ive been backed off once, I had to change my main casino)

I have played 173 hours at the table, decently fast for alot of them and a lot of hours heads up or with just 1 other person so I would say I have played somewhere in the vicinity of 14-15k hands

I am down 389 units after my 173 hours of play.

Counting with hi-lo, I18.

I know its possible that I just keep hitting negetive variance but im starting to worry im playing wrong, I have been reviewing BS and I18 and I know them well enough to make the right move without really thinking about it, I also feel confident that I am not loosing the count or making counting errors while im playing.

for those of you who play for a living, how often do you hit this kind of bad variance? I feel like I Am getting pwned.

I dont want to quit because I enjoy playing, its just that I am worried I may loose my bankroll if this keeps up, I have about 300 units left right now, with another 400 in savings that I could take out if I decided i really needed to, but I would prefer not to
 
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tezzadiver

Well-Known Member
#2
Bondy3 said:
Hi,

I have been playing a lot of 6D H17 Double on anything, RSA, pen 75-80%

I spread 1-10 (yes, I know its too agressive, ive been backed off once, I had to change my main casino)

I have played 173 hours at the table, decently fast for alot of them and a lot of hours heads up or with just 1 other person so I would say I have played somewhere in the vicinity of 14-15k hands

I am down 389 units after my 173 hours of play.

Counting with hi-lo, I18.

I know its possible that I just keep hitting negetive variance but im starting to worry im playing wrong, I have been reviewing BS and I18 and I know them well enough to make the right move without really thinking about it, I also feel confident that I am not loosing the count or making counting errors while im playing.

for those of you who play for a living, how often do you hit this kind of bad variance? I feel like I Am getting pwned.

I dont want to quit because I enjoy playing, its just that I am worried I may loose my bankroll if this keeps up, I have about 300 units left right now, with another 400 in savings that I could take out if I decided i really needed to, but I would prefer not to
A couple of points.
A 1-10 spread is not large for the game you are playing, In fact its not really aggressive enough to make good dollars at all.
Are you playing all? Including all negative counts?
Your standard deviation is about 47 units a hour, so your results fall well within expectation.

What is your unit size? If you can resize downwards it would be advisable.
Playing one on one gets you the hands but because of the speed can increase variance in either direction at a significant rate.

I would suggest double checking for playing errors on your part, resize downwards if possible, if not maybe play a wonging type strategy for a while until your bankroll recuperates- and definetely if you are going to continue to play all- wong out at least on minus 1.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#3
A 1-10 spread isn't nearly aggresive enough for a 6-decker with the stated rules, IMO. And being down less than 400 units for that amount of play is not that uncommon. There's no way any of us can determine if you're making any mistakes or not without seeing you play many times, but it doesn't sound like you're making mistakes, other than possibly being underfunded.
 
#4
Bondy

A 1-10 spread, as you have been told, is not going to make you alot of money but it should still be making you money,,so that, in and of itself, is not the reason for your loss.:rolleyes:

I would like to see that game you are playing have LS if they are going to throw h-17 at you. When I look at the game you are playing it is just not the type for me to get excited about enough to really want to play in a serious, have at it, manner.

BJ is a tough SOB, small advantage and wild swings,,,heat,, and that is why few will ever make it as an AP straight counting.

CP
 
#5
Bondy3 said:
Hi,

I have been playing a lot of 6D H17 Double on anything, RSA, pen 75-80%

I spread 1-10 (yes, I know its too agressive, ive been backed off once, I had to change my main casino)

I have played 173 hours at the table, decently fast for alot of them and a lot of hours heads up or with just 1 other person so I would say I have played somewhere in the vicinity of 14-15k hands

I am down 389 units after my 173 hours of play.

Counting with hi-lo, I18.

I know its possible that I just keep hitting negetive variance but im starting to worry im playing wrong, I have been reviewing BS and I18 and I know them well enough to make the right move without really thinking about it, I also feel confident that I am not loosing the count or making counting errors while im playing.

for those of you who play for a living, how often do you hit this kind of bad variance? I feel like I Am getting pwned.

I dont want to quit because I enjoy playing, its just that I am worried I may loose my bankroll if this keeps up, I have about 300 units left right now, with another 400 in savings that I could take out if I decided i really needed to, but I would prefer not to
If you are getting backed off while losing with a small spread you may be playing to long of sessions. Fatigue can cause lots of mistakes you are unaware of. Different people have different times of day when they are sharpest and at their worst when talking about your mental capacity. Know your own cycles and play when you are at your peak. You may be over betting your BR, with the sketchy definition of unit it is hard to tell but if you ever lost all your session BR you didn't bring enough money to the casino. The fact that you are losing and getting backed off may make it a good idea to quit while you are ahead for a while. You are likely playing too long of sessions. Most of the time you had the chance to leave with a profit in those long sessions. Some players have a greed problem that will not allow them to leave while they are ahead. Most APs leave or take a break after a large count win or lose. For HILO 1 to 10 is not a big spread. Some of the best counts can get a decent return with lower variance at lower bets. HILO needs a bigger spread to get the money. I would sread down if you aren't against the table minimum. Use wonging and table hopping where you can. I don't wong in unless the casino is very crowded. I wong out and table hop until I find the best pen then I wong out and have them hold my spot.
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#6
Yes, as you've been told you have to increase your spread. Before you do, take a look at what if anything you may have done to get backed off. A 1-10 spread in a 6 deck game isn't given a second look in many casinos. Is this a high limit room? Are you splitting 10s or doubling soft 20?

While your results thus far are discouraging you haven't played that long. If you had said 500 hours, I might be a little concerned. Don't over bet and for goodness sake don't under bet. I see otherwise good counters do the latter and it's a costly mistake.
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#7
paymypush said:
Yes, as you've been told you have to increase your spread. Before you do, take a look at what if anything you may have done to get backed off. A 1-10 spread in a 6 deck game isn't given a second look in many casinos. Is this a high limit room? Are you splitting 10s or doubling soft 20?

While your results thus far are discouraging you haven't played that long. If you had said 500 hours, I might be a little concerned. Don't over bet and for goodness sake don't under bet. I see otherwise good counters do the latter and it's a costly mistake.
It sounds here as if under betting is worse than overbetting.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#8
EVERY counter goes through this period of self-doubt the first time or two that he hits one of these normal and frequent down-turns in results.
Everyone makes SOME mistakes; no one is perfect. But everyone ALSO goes through swings like you're experiencing, and these swings happen with REGULARITY.

Are you raising your bets ONLY in negative counts, and LOWERING them when the deck gets rich? Of COURSE you're not! At least I HOPE you're not playing that badly. :eek:. But that's about the only way you could be making enough mistakes for your EXPECTATION to be more than 2 bets per hour!

It WILL turn around! You are playing with an advantage over the house. Have faith in the math! :)
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#9
gamblingghost said:
It sounds here as if under betting is worse than overbetting.
As long as you're spreading your bets properly:

Underbetting: Simply means that you'll make less money per hour.
Overbetting: You can expect your bankroll to actually shrink. Mathematically speaking; you have a 100% chance of going broke at some time in the future.
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#10
Sucker said:
As long as you're spreading your bets properly:

Underbetting: Simply means that you'll make less money per hour.
Overbetting: You can expect your bankroll to actually shrink. Mathematically speaking; you have a 100% chance of going broke at some time in the future.
Yes, underbetting PRESERVES BR. Overbetting causes one to LOSE BR. I choose underbetting any day. It keeps my demons at bay.
 
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#11
Sucker said:
As long as you're spreading your bets properly:

Underbetting: Simply means that you'll make less money per hour.
Overbetting: You can expect your bankroll to actually shrink. Mathematically speaking; you have a 100% chance of going broke at some time in the future.
As long as one is above table minimums, betting less means your chances of success are greater.
 
#12
by the way

Your probably overbetting!

1/2 of original bank?

1/3 of bank; including reserve?, in first 173 hrs of play?

Considering table min.
Kelly betting is overbetting
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#13
blackjack avenger said:
As long as one is above table minimums, betting less means your chances of success are greater.
paymypush seems to think betting less is a big mistake. That it makes an
otherwise good player not good. I think that is a mistake. If paypush had seen the swings I have you would understand my cautious approach.
 
#14
agree

gamblingghost said:
paymypush seems to think betting less is a big mistake. That it makes an
otherwise good player not good. I think that is a mistake. If paypush had seen the swings I have you would understand my cautious approach.
The OP has lost 30 to 50% of his bank. Let's assume he's playing full Kelly. He has a 70% chance of losing a third & 50% chance of losing half! Why is he surprised?

I think he's actually overbetting full Kelly.
 

gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#15
blackjack avenger said:
The OP has lost 30 to 50% of his bank. Let's assume he's playing full Kelly. He has a 70% chance of losing a third & 50% chance of losing half! Why is he surprised?

I think he's actually overbetting full Kelly.
If I lost half my BR the other half would be on very shaky ground due
to the human element. We are not computers. I require a huge BR to invest
in this game. 100 max bets is a joke, not nearly enough.
 
#16
yep

gamblingghost said:
If I lost half my BR the other half would be on very shaky ground due
to the human element. We are not computers. I require a huge BR to invest
in this game. 100 max bets is a joke, not nearly enough.
1/4 Kelly is the beginning of ones bank being safe & of having a good chance of winning. Winning is fun!

Imagine some poor guy losing half his bank, then cutting his bets in half to not go broke. Then he has to win twice the bets just to get even! It's a N0 hell!
 
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gamblingghost

Well-Known Member
#17
blackjack avenger said:
1/4 Kelly is the beginning of ones bank being safe & of having a good chance of winning. Winning is fun!

Imagine some poor guy losing half his bank, then cutting his bets in half to not go broke. Then he has to win twice the bets just to get even! It's a N0 hell!
Yes it is. Being able to ride out the wild swings is required to be of
any success in this investment. To run with a tight BR is asking one to experience play in very tense times. This heightens the chance of poor decisions and bust out.
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#18
I really like that you two guys are harping on the bankroll/money management issues. It seems to be one of Avenger's pet projects as he is constantly bringing it up. I think most players thinking of playing seriously, whether pro or not, are not educated nearly enough in this, probably the most important aspect of the game. I know one player, a few years back who wasn't! :eek: Irks me a little bit when players are concentrating on playing a level 2 system or adding indices, when they don't understand the more important money management/bankroll requirements and then go out and play under-bankrolled or over bet the bankroll that they have. Good job. :)
 

jaygruden

Well-Known Member
#19
I play primarily 6D, DA2, DAS, NRSA, LS, S17, pen 75-90% and spread 1-15 playing all. 1-10 is not enough of a spread on your game unless you are wonging. Not sure what table limit you are playing but if possible drop to low limit table and increase spread. You should not be getting BO'd with only 1-10 spread on that game.
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#20
gamblingghost said:
paymypush seems to think betting less is a big mistake. That it makes an
otherwise good player not good. I think that is a mistake. If paypush had seen the swings I have you would understand my cautious approach.
Perhaps there should be two distinctions : betting less and under betting.
 
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