calculating frequencies of deck composition

flyingwind

Well-Known Member
#1
What are some good ways for calculating the % frequency of a certain deck composition?

Say, I want to know how often in a 6D shoe that there will be a true count 5 by hi-lo? I know there are charts that list this in books, but I want to calculate this myself.

Alternatively, in an 8D shoe, how often will I have 6 excess Jacks per deck remaining?

Just example questions/scenarios.
 

k_c

Well-Known Member
#2
flyingwind said:
What are some good ways for calculating the % frequency of a certain deck composition?

Say, I want to know how often in a 6D shoe that there will be a true count 5 by hi-lo? I know there are charts that list this in books, but I want to calculate this myself.

Alternatively, in an 8D shoe, how often will I have 6 excess Jacks per deck remaining?

Just example questions/scenarios.
I have a program that I have quit working on for now that takes as input tags for a count, number of initial decks, number of cards in a random slug of cards that remain to be dealt, cards of each rank specifically removed from the shoe, and the running count for the cards remaining to be dealt.

Output is the probability of the input running and the probability of each rank for the slug of remaining cards.

The more complicated the count, the more computer memory is needed. I can compute Wong Halves for 2 decks, but no more with 2 GB RAM. I suppose it could help answer your question about excess number of jacks dealt from 8 decks by inputting a count that counts jacks and non-jacks but I'm too lazy to do that right now.

Below is sample output but I've sometimes altered what it outputs such as in [thread=20559]this thread[/thread].

Count tags {1,-1,-1,-1,-1,-1,0,0,0,1}
Decks: 6
Cards remaining: 156
Initial running count (full shoe): 0
Running count: 5
Specific removals
A: 0
2: 0
3: 0
4: 0
5: 0
6: 0
7: 0
8: 0
9: 0
T: 0

Number of subsets for 156 cards: 7501
Prob of running count 5 from 6 decks: 0.0417682

p[1] 0.0801282 p[2] 0.0737179 p[3] 0.0737179 p[4] 0.0737179 p[5] 0.0737179
p[6] 0.0737179 p[7] 0.0769231 p[8] 0.0769231 p[9] 0.0769231 p[10] 0.320513

Press x or X to exit program (it may take some time to close,)
any other key to enter more data for same count tags/decks:

Edit:
Actually the program treats all ten value cards (10,J,Q,K) as one group so it wouldn't be possible to just enumerate jacks to answer your question.
 
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