Dear 16 VS 10 index...

A

apex

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Thank you for the $800 swing I experienced shortly after learning you.

Last shoe of the night count hit 15+ with 3 decks left and stayed right around there until the green card showed up, so I was betting my max. 4 of the hands I was dealt were 16 VS dealer 10. Stayed on all of them. Was fortunate enough to have the dealer turn over a 2-6 followed by a 10 to bust each time:grin: In each case I would have busted had I hit.

My favorite one was when I was playing 2 hands, $100 each. Both hands were 16 and the player at 3rd base was also dealt 16, with a dealer 10. I quickly wave stay, stay. 3rd base takes a card and busts. Dealer flips a 4, then busts with a Q!
 
B

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
When those index plays are working it is a lot of fun. Be careful though, if it works too well the other players will start going on about it, and it might draw unwanted attention! One time nearly every one of my index plays worked and often saved the table...
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
With that high of a count, if you hit 16 vs T; you'll lose about 57% of the time. If you stand you'll only lose 55%.
So as far as EV is concerned; for each hand that you had, you only gained 2% of your bet; or $2 for each $100 bet.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not trying to rain on your parade, because 2% is very significant when it comes to counting cards. And that's the WHOLE purpose of counting - 2% here, 2% there; etc.

I'm just putting it in perspective for you, for future reference. MOST of the time when this situation comes up, the dealer
will either HAVE a hand, or will make one; and you'll wish over and over that you HAD hit. Don't fall for that trap.
Trust the math. No matter how you look at it and no matter WHAT the count, 16 vs T is a HORRIBLE hand, and you can definitely
expect to lose. Your goal at this point is not to win the hand, but to try to lose LESS, if at all possible.
 
A

apex

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
Sucker said:
With that high of a count, if you hit 16 vs T; you'll lose about 57% of the time. If you stand you'll only lose 55%.
So as far as EV is concerned; for each hand that you had, you only gained 2% of your bet; or $2 for each $100 bet.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not trying to rain on your parade, because 2% is very significant when it comes to counting cards. And that's the WHOLE purpose of counting - 2% here, 2% there; etc.

I'm just putting it in perspective for you, for future reference. MOST of the time when this situation comes up, the dealer
will either HAVE a hand, or will make one; and you'll wish over and over that you HAD hit. Don't fall for that trap.
Trust the math. No matter how you look at it and no matter WHAT the count, 16 vs T is a HORRIBLE hand, and you can definitely
expect to lose. Your goal at this point is not to win the hand, but to try to lose LESS, if at all possible.
Click to expand...

I agree with the idea, but are these numbers right? I would think you lose closer to 75% of the time whether you hit or stand, and the EV numbers are in the -.55 range like you posted.

Surrender was not available.
 
Southpaw

Southpaw

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
I don't think these numbers can be correct because surrendering is a favorable move only in instances where your chance of winning with the best alternative is lower than 25%. 16 v. 10 is the hand that is most likely to be surrendered of any hand (in a LS game, not ES) because its surrender index is the smallest (large and negative) in all systems that I'm familiar with. Therefore, unless the count is very large and negative, your chance of winning 16 v. 10 is always going to be less than 25%.

SP

apex said:
I agree with the idea, but are these numbers right? I would think you lose closer to 75% of the time whether you hit or stand, and the EV numbers are in the -.55 range like you posted.

Surrender was not available.
Click to expand...
 
S

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
apex said:
I agree with the idea, but are these numbers right? I would think you lose closer to 75% of the time whether you hit or stand, and the EV numbers are in the -.55 range like you posted.

Surrender was not available.
Click to expand...
Yes, you're right. I misstated, and I SHOULD have said that the EV's were -.55 and -.57 respectively (which figures out to be a $2 gain on a $100 bet).
Thanks for the correction! :eek:
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#8
#8
As far as play deviations from Basic Strategy, 16 vs. 10 is by far the most important one.

But as a decision a (shoe) card counter has to make, it's relatively unimportant. You could just stand on 16 vs. 10 all the time and it would make very little difference in your results, because whenever you have more than a minimum bet out there it's the right play anyway. As far as decisions go, 15 vs. 10 and 12 vs. 3 are more important. The difference between a play being important and a decision being important is subtle.
 
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