Heat

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#1
I have a couple questions about what to expect for heat. If you start off the shoe and bet the table max for 5 hands then go back to the table min for the rest of the shoe does that generate any heat due to the wild bet spread? Or what about 5 for the first couple hands up to 50 for the next couple, down to 20 for the next couple then back to 50 for the rest of the shoe? Or do casinos just love this because they know you aren't card counting if you are betting the max bet within the first 5 hands of the shoe?
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#2
Let it suffice to say that if you are willing to bet the "Table Max" "off-the-top" frequently, surveillance will be obliged to do a "skills check" on you simply because of the size of your bet.

You proffered the odd notion of 'table max' betting for five consecutive hands. Even if you are well-heeled why would you be willing to PAY a stiff tariff to begin your session. It is a very unpleasant prospect to launch your session and (perhaps) losing an amount that may be all but unrecoverable due to its relative size. If you want to be a reckless gambler you are unlikely to find sympathy from this forum.

The floor person will presume that you may be wealthy enough to accept the "cost" of betting big when you cannot have an edge against the house.
They are not completely oblivious to the fact that IF you are planning on (soon) counting cards you will, in all likelihood, be seriously undercapitalized, rendering your Risk-of-Ruin absurdly high.

They will conclude that you're a fool or a degenerate gambler. There is a lot of overlap there. Why would you pay the prohibitive cost of such rash actions? There is simply no manifest benefit to you.

My suggestion is that you learn to bet modest but random sums like 2 or 3 units to begin and spread up & down from there. That is the best way to partially disguise your bet spread. Being an "Advantage Player" requires emotional control, discipline, and patience.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#3
FLASH1296 said:
Let it suffice to say that if you are willing to bet the "Table Max" "off-the-top" frequently, surveillance will be obliged to do a "skills check" on you simply because of the size of your bet.

You proffered the odd notion of 'table max' betting for five consecutive hands. Even if you are well-heeled why would you be willing to PAY a stiff tariff to begin your session. It is a very unpleasant prospect to launch your session and (perhaps) losing an amount that may be all but unrecoverable due to its relative size. If you want to be a reckless gambler you are unlikely to find sympathy from this forum.

The floor person will presume that you may be wealthy enough to accept the "cost" of betting big when you cannot have an edge against the house.
They are not completely oblivious to the fact that IF you are planning on (soon) counting cards you will, in all likelihood, be seriously undercapitalized, rendering your Risk-of-Ruin absurdly high.

They will conclude that you're a fool or a degenerate gambler. There is a lot of overlap there. Why would you pay the prohibitive cost of such rash actions? There is simply no manifest benefit to you.

My suggestion is that you learn to bet modest but random sums like 2 or 3 units to begin and spread up & down from there. That is the best way to partially disguise your bet spread. Being an "Advantage Player" requires emotional control, discipline, and patience.
I probably should have stated that I am doing other things aside from card counting. However I am just looking for what kind of reaction to expect from the pit.

Don't worry, I would never ever place a bet of that size unless i thought i had an advantage. Those bets would not be for camoflauge be instead they would be bets because the advantage is in my favor for those first five hands. Before you say that what I'm doing is simply voodoo I suggest you go read other portions of this forum, as most poeple know there are more ways that just straight card counting to gain an advantage.
 
#4
Flash

FLASH1296 said:
Let it suffice to say that if you are willing to bet the "Table Max" "off-the-top" frequently, surveillance will be obliged to do a "skills check" on you simply because of the size of your bet.

You proffered the odd notion of 'table max' betting for five consecutive hands. Even if you are well-heeled why would you be willing to PAY a stiff tariff to begin your session. It is a very unpleasant prospect to launch your session and (perhaps) losing an amount that may be all but unrecoverable due to its relative size. If you want to be a reckless gambler you are unlikely to find sympathy from this forum.

The floor person will presume that you may be wealthy enough to accept the "cost" of betting big when you cannot have an edge against the house.
They are not completely oblivious to the fact that IF you are planning on (soon) counting cards you will, in all likelihood, be seriously undercapitalized, rendering your Risk-of-Ruin absurdly high.

They will conclude that you're a fool or a degenerate gambler. There is a lot of overlap there. Why would you pay the prohibitive cost of such rash actions? There is simply no manifest benefit to you.

My suggestion is that you learn to bet modest but random sums like 2 or 3 units to begin and spread up & down from there. That is the best way to partially disguise your bet spread. Being an "Advantage Player" requires emotional control, discipline, and patience.
Very well said, concise and to the point....spot on :)

CP
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#5
1357111317 said:
I probably should have stated that I am doing other things aside from card counting. However I am just looking for what kind of reaction to expect from the pit.

Don't worry, I would never ever place a bet of that size unless i thought i had an advantage. Those bets would not be for camoflauge be instead they would be bets because the advantage is in my favor for those first five hands. Before you say that what I'm doing is simply voodoo I suggest you go read other portions of this forum, as most poeple know there are more ways that just straight card counting to gain an advantage.
ST, i guess, huh. might maybe experience some pretty wild variance i guess.
i'm not sure how the pit would view it, if maybe they saw you hawking the table, or maybe you have a compatriot at the table calling you in?
way beyond me, just thought i'd chime in.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#6
1357111317 said:
I have a couple questions about what to expect for heat. If you start off the shoe and bet the table max for 5 hands then go back to the table min for the rest of the shoe does that generate any heat due to the wild bet spread?
Just find a table that has a min of what the max was at the table your talking about. Like if it was a $10-$1000 table find a $1000 min table.

Then just bet the min for 5 hands off the top and stop playing until the next shoe.

No heat at all for 5 min bets off the top. No wild spread. Problem eliminated.

Worst case, if, somehow, they eventually catch on by some wild chance and just can't take the merciless beating you've been giving them anymore, just sacrifice 10% of EV, more if you must, and pay a friend, heck, even a stranger, to make the 5 bets for you. By then, you'll probably be looking for a $5K min table anyway and paying people won't be that big of a deal.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#8
Kasi said:
Just find a table that has a min of what the max was at the table your talking about. Like if it was a $10-$1000 table find a $1000 min table.

Then just bet the min for 5 hands off the top and stop playing until the next shoe.

No heat at all for 5 min bets off the top. No wild spread. Problem eliminated.

Worst case, if, somehow, they eventually catch on by some wild chance and just can't take the merciless beating you've been giving them anymore, just sacrifice 10% of EV, more if you must, and pay a friend, heck, even a stranger, to make the 5 bets for you. By then, you'll probably be looking for a $5K min table anyway and paying people won't be that big of a deal.
I realize that you are making some kind of attempt to mock me. It was a serious question though. I just want to make sure nothing like that will generate any heat. The method I use I have a pretty good idea of where the good cards are and I will always try to cut them to the front of the deck. The method does work too; Last night I figured a series of 52 cards to be about -10 so i put the table max bet out (50).Turned out those cards were -7 so I was happy with that even though I think I hit 12-15 4 out of the 5 hands i played in that deck while the rest of the table hit the naturals and the twentys. That deck was also the second deck to be played. The hand before that the deck was positive so I bet 5. Will that wild spread generate any heat?
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#9
I understand what you're saying; it's a legitimate question, but tough to answer, as it really depends on the "personality" of the store in question. If you're not making huge money, though, I would think that this kind of play wouldn't catch as much attention as a typical spread (high at end of shoe, for example). So I wouldn't sweat it too much at red-green anyway.
 
#10
1357111317 said:
I have a couple questions about what to expect for heat. If you start off the shoe and bet the table max for 5 hands then go back to the table min for the rest of the shoe does that generate any heat due to the wild bet spread? Or what about 5 for the first couple hands up to 50 for the next couple, down to 20 for the next couple then back to 50 for the rest of the shoe? Or do casinos just love this because they know you aren't card counting if you are betting the max bet within the first 5 hands of the shoe?

Well, if you are card counting its a bad idea, because big bets will always bring heat. So they will check out your game. Heat is not a problem if you don't count cards, or participate in some other well known form of advantage play..
If you are not using some readily Identifiable and known form of advantage play, you will have to win lots of money over many many sessions, and spend lots of time at one casino on one shift before they ever start to think of banning you, even then they will probably think you are lucky, will want to get you to join the players club and offer you comps because they will want to get their money back.
In short if you aren't counting cards or shuffle tracking, tracking aces etc, you don't have to worry about heat. But if you do have some real form of advantage play, even if it is unknown, don't ever join a players club because then they will track all of your bets, so they know how much of a comp to give you.
if you are on a $5 dollar table and you drop a $1,000 bet, the whole pit is gonna be staring at you solid until you leave the table, and if your bets follow the count at all, you will be banned.
in order to avoid heat your bets should be in chips the size of the minimum bet. ie, $5 min red chips, 25 min green chips, 100min black chips, if you are at $5 table and you want to bet $50 you would be better off using 10 red chips then 2 green chips, most pits require the dealer to alert the boss if there is an upward change in the color of the players chips. At most pits if you are betting red chips and you throw in a green chips, the dealer will call it out and the pit boss may or may not saunter over to the table and check out your play.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#11
1357111317 said:
I realize that you are making some kind of attempt to mock me. It was a serious question though. I just want to make sure nothing like that will generate any heat. The method I use I have a pretty good idea of where the good cards are and I will always try to cut them to the front of the deck. The method does work too; Last night I figured a series of 52 cards to be about -10 so i put the table max bet out (50).

Well, just having a little fun.

I, and maybe others, assumed you meant by a "table max" bet betting the maximum allowed at that table - like if it were a $5-$500 table you'd be betting $500.

But now I see, maybe it looks like you just maybe mean making your own max bet ($50) with a $5-$50 spread.

So I have no problem with that if you think the advantage (and SD) justifies it.

Still, a word of caution just because maybe ST is not an exact science - you thought -10, turned out to be -7 or whatever you said. In other words it may have more variance. I don't really have much of a handle on ST.

Anyway, to your question, I can't imagine you'd incur any heat doing this (betting $5-$50). In fact, I'd guess, if anything, it would prolong any potential heat.
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#12
Well I am betting the table max, the limits are 5-50 on that table. Your right when you say its not an exact science but if you can be within 2-3 all the time I think thats still pretty good when you will have a deck in every single shoe thats more negative than -6.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#13
1357111317 said:
Well I am betting the table max, the limits are 5-50 on that table.
That's pretty funny lol - what a low min max spread.

In that case, you probably have even less to worry about, especially if playing all hands - there's only so much money that spread would yield anyway and it ain't much.

Have fun and good luck :)
 

1357111317

Well-Known Member
#14
Well it has a low min max ratio but that can easily worked with since you can back bet. If I really wanted to I could spread 5-150 on three hands or 5-100 on two hands as long as I have one or two teammates at the same table.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#15
1357111317 said:
Well it has a low min max ratio but that can easily worked with since you can back bet. If I really wanted to I could spread 5-150 on three hands or 5-100 on two hands as long as I have one or two teammates at the same table.
For a second I got all excited and thought you said you could back-count - like mid-shoe entry is allowed.

Even if not, there could be a bunch of possibilites.

Guess it's your money and or team's money, so of course you can do anything you want.

No big deal, but say you got 3 guys with $1700 each, it's not alot of money, it's not alot of roll and not knowing what to expect from doing whatever is likely just gambling and maybe even increase your chances of losing it all alot sooner than otherwise.

What are you expecting from your money betting it how? It's OK to have many different plans. You'll need them. Just the simple case of a 4/6, 4.5/6 or 5/6 game is 3 different plans. Hopefully, you'll be betting differently when that may happen.

Maybe a good time to get your teammates to pony up $33 bucks or so and learn how to use a sim so at least you know the best time to bet how and still keep your risk the same. You just can't make much money with a $5-$50 spread anyway, not with $5K or $5000K roll. Learn how to fish now.

Here endeth the sermon lmao.

Good luck. Have fun.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#16
1357111317 said:
Before you say that what I'm doing is simply voodoo I suggest you go read other portions of this forum, as most poeple know there are more ways that just straight card counting to gain an advantage.
Before you go telling people to go read other portions of this forum, why don't you do the same? In every single shuffle tracking thread, one of the PRIMARY ADVANTAGES is that you end up betting big at the front of the shoe. This isn't some sort of secret that you've stumbled upon.

Stop treating every little tidbit of information you glean from this forum like some national-security level secret.

1357111317 said:
If you start off the shoe and bet the table max for 5 hands then go back to the table min for the rest of the shoe does that generate any heat due to the wild bet spread?
No, that doesn't generate any heat due to the wild bet spread.

It generates heat because you're betting the table max. :rolleyes:

1357111317 said:
Or do casinos just love this because they know you aren't card counting if you are betting the max bet within the first 5 hands of the shoe?
Classic newbie mistake.

Myth: Casinos look for reasons to eliminate people as card counters.
Fact: Casinos look for reasons to incriminate people as undesirables.

You're simply not going to get away with acting like a card counter 90% of the time, and then putting on some sort of act (no matter how good or how wild it is) for the remaining 10% of the time. The casino isn't going to watch you stand behind a table backcounting, then jump in and vary your bets according to Hi-Lo, then drop your bet to table min on the new shoe, and then conclude you aren't a card counter because you didn't sit at third base.

They're looking for reasons to toss you, not to keep you.

So what if you bet table max for one hand off the top of the shoe? If they watch you play with an advantage for the rest of the shoe, you're going to be labeled as a card counter. And if nothing else, they'll suspect you of being a peek freak and detain you for cheating.

The very fundamental problem you deal with is that you're frequently visiting one casino and unwilling to go anyplace else. There's no way around that problem. If you play with an advantage - any advantage - they'll eventually find it and take countermeasures.
 
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