voodoo vs fact

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#1
There have been countless sims for optimal betting within a given game's rules. Betting spread and ramp that is count dependant with index plays make for a game plan to attack the game and supposdly come out ahead in the long run. We all know that we have to trust the math and our ablility to apply said principles to acheive our stated goals(profit). My question is that at what point does a person's style of playing cross the line from true advantage play to voodoo plays and betting. blackchipjim
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#2
blackchipjim said:
There have been countless sims for optimal betting within a given game's rules. Betting spread and ramp that is count dependant with index plays make for a game plan to attack the game and supposdly come out ahead in the long run. We all know that we have to trust the math and our ablility to apply said principles to acheive our stated goals(profit). My question is that at what point does a person's style of playing cross the line from true advantage play to voodoo plays and betting. blackchipjim
for me one aspect of delving into voodoo is when one strays from the known actionable parameters of a game plan with a known expectation into intuitive and qualitative hopefully intelligent guessing to where at some point your what your doing is a pure gamble.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#3
blackchipjim said:
My question is that at what point does a person's style of playing cross the line from true advantage play to voodoo plays and betting.
If I had to define it, it's whenever a departure from optimal strategy is done for any reason other than well-understood cover or rational bankroll management (risk-averse plays, etc.)
 
#4
Anything based on superstition (playing hunches, bad players hurt you, the flow, etc) or flawed logic (clumping, any progressive betting system unless it's somehow tied into the count) rather than sound mathematics is voodoo. Ignorance of BS is not voodoo, but knowingly going against it, such as hitting 11vT because you've lost the last 4 times you've doubled is voodoo. I don't buy into "risk-averse" play either. If you are too scared to split a pair of eights against a 10 you're probably overbetting your bankroll.
 
#5
gordon5432 said:
I don't buy into "risk-averse" play either. If you are too scared to split a pair of eights against a 10 you're probably overbetting your bankroll.
I agree with you 100% on that.

If the math/stats don't justify it and you claim it's a winning strategy, then it's voodoo.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#6
Unless you're betting full-kelly, you're already playing a "risk averse" strategy, so doing so is pretty much universal.

Personally, I don't alter my playing strategy to reduce volatility either, but I don't see what's wrong with doing so - if not splitting 8's against a 10 is a rational, reasoned decision not borne from fear it's completely appropriate. It's not too unlike fractional-kelly betting.
 

UncrownedKing

Well-Known Member
#7
I would say, any bet that was not in your gameplan. If you need to make certain bets/plays for camo, fine its part of your plan. If you start making bets/plays outside the plan, then you are no longer an AP just a gambler. Go in knowing exactly what you are going to do in what situation, even if it includes ridiculous plays; its still part of the plan and you will still make money. Anything you do outside the plan is gambling.
 

mathman

Well-Known Member
#8
While I might be new to this board, I'm not new to the game. I think any good, profitable player has been guilty of a little voo doo here and there. I use progression betting for cover (still based on the count), when I feel I need to, but the ramp does not match the tc so that is gambling like it or not. However I must say allot of profit has been created in those situations. My second "offense" would be carrying a higher bet into slightly negative tc's based on previous shoes, again allot of profit has been made by being observant but that is still gambling. I'm sure more players than will admit it here are guilty of the same sort of "offenses". Even being psychologically prepared for the day can be considered voo doo, it seems when you walk through the door in a depressed or bad mood you always lose. Obviously your mood cannot change the cards but it sure does seem that way.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#9
blackchipjim said:
My question is that at what point does a person's style of playing cross the line from true advantage play to voodoo plays and betting. blackchipjim
Great question lol.

Have no real answer either lol.

I guess to me "voodoo" means knowingly using betting systems in a -EV game exchanging frequency of success of a small amount, say one unit, for an infrequent chance of losing original roll.

Or, maybe, just placing a bet without knowing if it's a +EV bet or a -EV bet.

I have no idea :)
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#10
gordon5432 said:
Anything based on superstition (playing hunches, bad players hurt you, the flow, etc) or flawed logic (clumping, any progressive betting system unless it's somehow tied into the count) rather than sound mathematics is voodoo. Ignorance of BS is not voodoo, but knowingly going against it,..
So where does a self-confessed "voodoo" player like me fit in?

Am I not applying "math" if I know when flat-betting I will win at least a half-unit 90+% of the time in the next x rolls with a 12 unit roll?

If I know a 2000 unit roll using Oscar's Grind will succeed in winning my one unit 99.9+% of the time, know the average number of rolls that result in a success of one unit, know how long I will be playing that trip, know the min-max spread of the table and know how often my "voodoo" system calls for a bet I cannot make, know the average number oif rolls that will result in a "win" of one unit when a win of one unit actually occurs, know the risk to my roll, can one deride me for choosing to accept the known risk of losing my 2000 units versus winning x over so long?

If I know when flat-betting I'm expected to lose one unit every 3 hours and know on a trip I will be playing for 15 hours with a goal of just breaking-even, can one blame me for using some "voodoo" system(s) to have a very high chance of picking up those 5 units?

Sometimes I think, the way I think of "voodoo", I'm betting with more discipline to the voodoo system(s) of my choice, pretty much "know" what to expect from it, compared to AP's, who, it sometimes seems sometimes actually, apparently, for some reason, they have all the excuses, make a bet without having a clue what to expect from it.

Why they do that I will never understand. That, imho, is way beyond voodoo.
Making bets cluelessly - hopefully a voodoo player at least knows what to expect.

Then they maybe call such a departure "voodoo" as in "I think any good, profitable player has been guilty of a little voo doo here and there." as if "voodoo" means "bad". Why didn't any profitable AP player already know what to expect before making a bet?

This "voodoo" player would rather slice his wrist with a dull butterkife than be guilty of betting cluelessly.

I know I play -EV games. My little challenge within that context is to excede EV by breaking even lol.

Voodoo, proper use and understanding of betting systems, is respectable to me.

What's life like for you guys with your "AP" selfimage occasionally betting whatever lol :confused:

You want to "camo" bet or wahtever - what's your excuse for not running your sim ahead of time for that?

Hey, it's voodoo - just having fun lol.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#11
just sit there?

So you are sitting at the table three other players right. The count does not justify upping you bet but the others are betting one,two,three hundred a hand and we are killing the dealer. You are playing your min bet and not budging from your min bet because the count says no. You are winning like everyone else just not as much. The hooting and hollering doesn't bother you because you are winning even if it isn't the thousands the others are pulling right. I know that I can stop this run of luck for these guys by just putting my hundred dollar bet out and it will come to an abupt halt. blackchipjim
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#12
A23456789 an ten

blackchipjim said:
There have been countless sims for optimal betting within a given game's rules. Betting spread and ramp that is count dependant with index plays make for a game plan to attack the game and supposdly come out ahead in the long run. We all know that we have to trust the math and our ablility to apply said principles to acheive our stated goals(profit). My question is that at what point does a person's style of playing cross the line from true advantage play to voodoo plays and betting. blackchipjim
You are one crafty counselor, blackjackjim. You sometimes have one foot in each camp and you ask this infinite question right here on Voodoo, knowing full well that if you asked it out of voodoo, you would receive entirely different answers. Like for example: here are all the cards that we are always concerned with regarding Blackjack. A23456789 and 10. Ten cards. So how many possible ways can this 10 cards present to be dealt? Is it 1 to the power of 9 or 10? If so, it's a figure that I don't think fits in my calculator. Which brings us to Variance, which I just vaguely alluded to.

Variance and Voodoo. They have one big thing in common. They begin with the letter V. Need I say any more? :cat:
 
#13
Katweezel said:
You are one crafty counselor, blackjackjim. You sometimes have one foot in each camp and you ask this infinite question right here on Voodoo, knowing full well that if you asked it out of voodoo, you would receive entirely different answers. Like for example: here are all the cards that we are always concerned with regarding Blackjack. A23456789 and 10. Ten cards. So how many possible ways can this 10 cards present to be dealt? Is it 1 to the power of 9 or 10? If so, it's a figure that I don't think fits in my calculator. Which brings us to Variance, which I just vaguely alluded to.

Variance and Voodoo. They have one big thing in common. They begin with the letter V. Need I say any more? :cat:
What is your preference ? Variance or Voodoo ? I would assume you are a practioner in the arts of Black Magic.
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#14
The dreaded double Vs

InPlay said:
What is your preference ? Variance or Voodoo ? I would assume you are a practioner in the arts of Black Magic.
I believe this forum is at its best when ideas are discussed without personal insult and/or cynical ridicule. So, how was your recent holiday in Siberia?

As for your V or V question, are they the only two choices I get?... Here is Bootlegger's description of how to calculate variance.
Variance. "This can be determined by subtracting the expected value from each possible outcome in a game or hand, squaring the differences and multiplying each square by its probability of occurring and then summing the total of the product". So here are the ten cards we deal with: A23456789 and ten. How does Boot's formula relate to those ten cards? I have no idea. But I do know the sequence possibilities are vast, with those ten. Does that explain variance? Nope.

Variance and voodoo are often seemingly together in force, such as in the shoes from hell, the dealer from hell, even the table from hell. These are part and parcel of the game, aren't they?... But is there any way of restricting the effects of variance? No, not from the play of single-box blackjack. Is there a way of play that puts the full effects of variance back on the dealer hand, where it belongs? Absolutely. Can variance be used for some 'benefit'? Absolutely.

Is there a way of play that can ensure more blackjacks than 1:21. Yep, but not for single-box BJ. Can dealer busts be steered with far more likelihood of success than what an 'average' might suggest? Absolutely. But with far more difficulty from third base when playing single-box on a crowded table.

If you believe any of those things I just mentioned are voodoo, and that I am a 'practitioner' of black magic, then I would have to say that I am just an aficionado of voodoo. The vast numbers of possibilities contained in ten cards, to my mind, means that the possibilities for winning systems/methods with the game of blackjack are not limited to a few connected to math. Why, FredPerson even has a progressions betting method he has collected on for 20 years. But he is the 'exception that proves the rule'.

Now back to voodoo. A certain Marshall has not been seen here for a while. You seem to know something about voodoo practices. If you admit to knowing something of feathers, voodoo dolls and needles, you are one chief suspect in his disappearance. :cat:
 
#15
Katweezel said:
I believe this forum is at its best when ideas are discussed without personal insult and/or cynical ridicule. So, how was your recent holiday in Siberia?

As for your V or V question, are they the only two choices I get?... Here is Bootlegger's description of how to calculate variance.
Variance. "This can be determined by subtracting the expected value from each possible outcome in a game or hand, squaring the differences and multiplying each square by its probability of occurring and then summing the total of the product". So here are the ten cards we deal with: A23456789 and ten. How does Boot's formula relate to those ten cards? I have no idea. But I do know the sequence possibilities are vast, with those ten. Does that explain variance? Nope.

Variance and voodoo are often seemingly together in force, such as in the shoes from hell, the dealer from hell, even the table from hell. These are part and parcel of the game, aren't they?... But is there any way of restricting the effects of variance? No, not from the play of single-box blackjack. Is there a way of play that puts the full effects of variance back on the dealer hand, where it belongs? Absolutely. Can variance be used for some 'benefit'? Absolutely.

Is there a way of play that can ensure more blackjacks than 1:21. Yep, but not for single-box BJ. Can dealer busts be steered with far more likelihood of success than what an 'average' might suggest? Absolutely. But with far more difficulty from third base when playing single-box on a crowded table.

If you believe any of those things I just mentioned are voodoo, and that I am a 'practitioner' of black magic, then I would have to say that I am just an aficionado of voodoo. The vast numbers of possibilities contained in ten cards, to my mind, means that the possibilities for winning systems/methods with the game of blackjack are not limited to a few connected to math. Why, FredPerson even has a progressions betting method he has collected on for 20 years. But he is the 'exception that proves the rule'.

Now back to voodoo. A certain Marshall has not been seen here for a while. You seem to know something about voodoo practices. If you admit to knowing something of feathers, voodoo dolls and needles, you are one chief suspect in his disappearance. :cat:

I am a practioner in the art of winning money. I really don't care what people call it whether they call it Voodoo or Variance. I really don't prefer the cold weather for vacations such as Siberia. I prefer the islands to brush up on my skills.
 

Attachments

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#16
uh huh

InPlay said:
I am a practioner in the art of winning money. I really don't care what people call it whether they call it Voodoo or Variance. I really don't prefer the cold weather for vacations such as Siberia. I prefer the islands to brush up on my skills.
I heard the Imperial Siberian Palace had some games with GREAT Penetration. :whip:
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#17
Undead gringo

InPlay said:
I am a practioner in the art of winning money. I really don't care what people call it whether they call it Voodoo or Variance. I really don't prefer the cold weather for vacations such as Siberia. I prefer the islands to brush up on my skills.
Gee, InPlay, you lost a little hair and weight, but the twinkle in your eyes stays the same. You really do need to do something about those facial stab marks. And there is no need to look so surprised all the time, when you are among friends. You are one unusual gringo... Hasta la vista baby. :cat:
 
#18
Katweezel said:
Gee, InPlay, you lost a little hair and weight, but the twinkle in your eyes stays the same. You really do need to do something about those facial stab marks. And there is no need to look so surprised all the time, when you are among friends. You are one unusual gringo... Hasta la vista baby. :cat:

It's all good.
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#19
voodoo again

So the question of one being fact in the game and the other being fiction is something that is easily defined. I find it safe to assume that we place big bets out in high counts and low ones in the begining of course.
You are playing this shoe and at third base with a 16vs10 high count in the begining of the shoe you know your index is to stand but is your way of thinking at the end of the shoe the same. The players are pulling fives out of their proverbials in the hands before you and you..... blackchipjim
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#20
mathman said:
While I might be new to this board, I'm not new to the game. I think any good, profitable player has been guilty of a little voo doo here and there. I use progression betting for cover (still based on the count), when I feel I need to, but the ramp does not match the tc so that is gambling like it or not. However I must say allot of profit has been created in those situations. My second "offense" would be carrying a higher bet into slightly negative tc's based on previous shoes, again allot of profit has been made by being observant but that is still gambling. I'm sure more players than will admit it here are guilty of the same sort of "offenses". Even being psychologically prepared for the day can be considered voo doo, it seems when you walk through the door in a depressed or bad mood you always lose. Obviously your mood cannot change the cards but it sure does seem that way.
Two comments: When you stated that in certain voodoo situations a lot of profit was made there, you failed to mention that a lot of losses were made there as well. If they weren't, you simply haven't done it enough, because they will surely come.

Second, your mental attitude and emotional state can influence your play and cause you to make errors and inappropriate decisions. I don't think it is possible that they cause losing when you play perfect and make all the right decisions. That would defy logic, at least, based on any known facts.
 
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