Don't Be a Victim of the Online Game

#1
I am a new member and thought I would throw out some ideas on how to attain success at online blackjack. From the threads I’ve read on this forum, I estimate the common held view is that the online game cannot be beat over a protracted period. Anybody can win, but the risk of ruin rears its ugly head, and the ill-prepared, misinformed player cannot believe what has occurred and subsequently joins all the other lost souls who have tried and failed. I think the major mistake many players make is being inadequately prepared for the endeavor because they greatly underestimate how difficult it is to beat the game of blackjack due to the small house advantage that the game has. But what appears to be a small advantage for the casino turns out to be an insurmountable obstacle for most players to overcome when they engage in this past-time for any considerable length of time, this goes for both counters and non-counters.

The purpose of this post is not to teach you how to beat the game of online blackjack. Were I to know the answer to that equation, I would not tell you because the time and effort I would have spent discovering how to do this is not something to be given away. I would sell it, but not at a price you would be willing to pay. I might write about it, but why would I want to be responsible for the demise of the game? More importantly, if there was a successful method, it would be foolish to tell everyone how to do it since the casinos would not offer the game if they’re going to lose money on that proposition. Either that or they would make rule changes to make it impossible to win.

Rather, the purpose of this post is to postulate some ideas that have served me well thus far on how you can prepare yourself for this adventure before you commit some serious money, lose it, and become another blackjack victim. If you are a casual player, then it really doesn’t matter. You just want to have a good time, so learn basic strategy and pick up a copy of Donald Dahl’s book.

Rules of Success for the Serious Player

Learn Basic Strategy for the game you are going to play since there are variations to the strategy whether you play single deck or the eight deck shoe.

Create your system.
It is an established fact that all betting systems will fail over the long run. I placed the word “established” in italics because this pertains to all “known” betting systems. When subjected to computer simulations or actual use over a prolonged period of play, they break down along the way. But, these systems provide a starting point from which to learn and understand why they fail.

Test your system.
This is the most important aspect of winning because 99.99% of systems will break over an extended time frame. What constitutes an adequate testing period? My standard is a minimum of 15 days with an average win of 50 units per day. Be prepared to win for 5 or 6 days to see your system fall apart. But each time this occurs, analyze why it happened. Is your strategy completely flawed, does it require some adjustments, or should it be thrown out? After evaluation, test again, evaluate and test again, again, and again. Thought this was going to be easy? Sorry to disappoint you, but it is going to be very difficult and may take months, possibly years, and brace yourself because you may never succeed. But, if you do attain success, you will have somewhat tested the limits of your system, determined your bankroll requirement, and readied yourself for live game play.

When You Are Ready for Online Play

Save money until you have established an adequate bankroll for the system you are playing.

Play at a reputable site. This means do thorough research on the site’s integrity because when you win, you want to get paid. The online world is littered with players that were not paid by rogue operators simply because they did not take the time to find out about the reputation of the casino before depositing their hard earned money. A good place to start is the casino watchdog site Casinomeister.

During your research, find the sites that offer the lowest minimum bet. Why? Because you are at the second stage in your testing. This phase of testing is to engage in live play for 30 days and at the end of that period to be a winner providing you haven’t lost everything long before that. While you may be feeling confident that you’ve figured how to beat the game, it is too early to know and therefore, you do not want to risk a large amount of money until you’ve made it through this 30 day period. If you succeed, then you will be ready for stage 3. If you fail, which is the likely scenario, you need to stop online play and go back to the creation and testing phase.

At stage 3, you are ready to move to higher limits. However, it would be wise to maintain a cautious stance at this stage and not bet the farm. Never get over-confident because that is when you will be humbled. I would recommend a gradual rise in stakes for a two week period and another gradual rise from that point, and so on.

Casino Bonuses

I am not a proponent of using casino bonuses. On the plus side, I have read that many players claim they win at blackjack if they get a bonus. I’ll probably be criticized for this, but here are the reasons I would not take a bonus:

I have seen too many complaints from players that say they were not paid because the casino’s interpretation of the terms and conditions (T&C) are different than the player’s understanding of them. Also, the casinos will change the T&C without player knowledge and players learn after the fact they did not comply with the T&C.

If you are a winner and use a bonus, a casino could identify the player as
a bonus abuser and withhold their winnings and ban them from the site.

Many bonuses exclude the game of blackjack and if they do allow it, the wagering requirements (WR) are difficult to meet.

Some casinos look for ways not to pay you when you do satisfy the WR. For example, I have heard of winnings denied because the casino had problems with the size of the player’s bets, then identify them as an advantage player, and confiscate their winnings.

But one thing is for certain. When you are losing, not one single casino will ever, ever, ever say a word. When you are winning, some will look for a reason not to pay. Don’t give them one.
 
#2
You encourage people to bet as they learn a system. How about instead they play the "free" version of the game - that is usually available at these online casinos - until they find their system working? That is the wise way to go about it! Besides, if they don't know if the system works or not, how can they know how big their bankroll needs to be?

You throw a ball up in the air, straight up! While it's headed upwards, do you prepare to catch the ball? Of course not! Instead you watch it as it goes up, seemingly into the clouds. When it's all the way up as far as the force drives it, then you prepare to catch the ball! There is no guess work required! Best of all, the ball only comes down as far as it went up.

Licentia
 

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#3
Interpreting the analogy...

Licentia said:
Best of all, the ball only comes down as far as it went up.
Does this mean we can take comfort in knowing we can't lose more than all the money we have? What if we borrow? Or steal?
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#4
Licentia said:
You encourage people to bet as they learn a system. How about instead they play the "free" version of the game - that is usually available at these online casinos - until they find their system working? That is the wise way to go about it! Besides, if they don't know if the system works or not, how can they know how big their bankroll needs to be?

Licentia
Simple. It doesn't work.
 
#5
Sorry, I assumed the readers would assume that the concept of developing and creating a system for blackjack should done in practice mode. My advice is not to get involved in online play until you can play successfully for a minimum of 15 days making an average of 50 units a day. This would show a solid system, but not necessarily mean it is ironclad. During this period of time, you would have also determined your bankroll needed for online play. For example, you may have learned that 1000 units is required.

The next stage after developing a solid system is to engage in online play, but find the lowest limits possible because even though you may be confident you are ready, it is too soon to know. It is too early to commit any serious money, but you have a strategy and are ready for live play. I would recommend blackjack at absolute poker or ultimate bet at this because they offer .10 minimum bets. So, if your bankroll requirement is 1000 units, you need $100 to play. If you can engage in online play sucessfully for a period of 30 days, then you are ready to move up in limits. At this point, I would suggest a gradual move up in limits. If you are unsuccessful, do not continue to play for money. I:whip:nstead, go back to square one and re-evaluate.

I offer this advice because I've seen many players lose sums of money that place them in serious financial jeopardy because they did not follow a methodical, well tested approach to gambling because they vastly underestimate how difficult it is to beat the game and were not thoroughly prepared for the task.

If a player cannot beat the game in practice mode, they should not play for real money. Yet, many will learn basic strategy, play a few hours or days of practice online and think they have done something in a short time that few others have been able to do. Then they proceed to deposit money in an online account, lose it, deposit and lose, repeating the insanity over and over again. And sometimes, you see the deparate post from a player who has lost everything because they continued to repeat the same mistake over and over.

What I hope is that players who read this post will undergo a period of preparedness before making the same mistake than 1000's of players have made. If you want to be successful, it takes hard work.

Now, I won't take offense that my advice is posted in the Voodoo section, but I think it is good advice and we should see such data from players on what has been successful for them and what has not.

And, I see Q-FIT :whip: could not contain himself and had to say that a non-counting system cannot win. I'm sure that I am not alone when I say that is an incorrect statement.
 

RJT

Well-Known Member
#6
Mister_No_Count said:
And, I see Q-FIT :whip: could not contain himself and had to say that a non-counting system cannot win. I'm sure that I am not alone when I say that is an incorrect statement.
Lol - no you're not alone and every single poster that contiues to follow your poorly constructed advice will lose in the long run. But someone has to pay for all those glitzy site designs and as the saying goes there's a sucker born every minute.
The only part of your post that made even vague referrence to a winning system was the part you shot down lmao.

RJT.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#7
Mister_No_Count said:
And, I see Q-FIT :whip: could not contain himself and had to say that a non-counting system cannot win. I'm sure that I am not alone when I say that is an incorrect statement.
Qfit never said that non-counting systems cannot win. He said that progression systems cannot beat the house edge. There is a huge difference between those two statements.

Mister_No_Count said:
Now, I won't take offense that my advice is posted in the Voodoo section, but I think it is good advice...
I can assure you that it's nothing personal. Your post was moved to this forum because it deals with progression systems. It also has some very bad advice which could be dangerous to players who don't know any better. This is where it belongs.

-Sonny-
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#8
Licentia,

You have an intriguing "signature" as follows:

"Saliu - "The only mathematics to be followed at blackjack is the DOUBLE DOWN situations. The negative count is the most favorable to double down. That's absolutely the best situation for the blackjack player. Double down situations represent the best possible situations for the 21 player. You got 6+4 or 6+5 in two consecutive rounds? It is rare…but mathematics indicates strongly that two low-card rounds are followed by a third high-card round."

I assume that it's some kind of sick joke.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#9
maybe not...

:laugh: That's probably the most illogical statement I've ever heard... unless your taking into account the mathematical standard distribution of 10 value cards as defined by the theoretical flow of cards in relation to the rate of descention of the running count... in that case it would be 92.3% true.

(Please don't ban me... this is the Voodoo section):whip:
 

ycming

Well-Known Member
#10
I think he works for the 2 casino he recommended! The daftest thing i ever see.

Back then i only made money from online casino through getting the bonuses!

Pure daft daft advice

Ming
 
#11
FLASH1296 said:
Licentia,

You have an intriguing "signature" as follows:

"Saliu - "The only mathematics to be followed at blackjack is the DOUBLE DOWN situations. The negative count is the most favorable to double down. That's absolutely the best situation for the blackjack player. Double down situations represent the best possible situations for the 21 player. You got 6+4 or 6+5 in two consecutive rounds? It is rare…but mathematics indicates strongly that two low-card rounds are followed by a third high-card round."

I assume that it's some kind of sick joke.
I just read that the other day on his website. I'm not saying Ion Saliu is correct, but has anyone run a sim to see the results?

Licentia
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#12
Licentia said:
I just read that the other day on his website. I'm not saying Ion Saliu is correct, but has anyone run a sim to see the results?

Licentia
Is this a joke? Tens of thousands of sims over 50 years state the exact opposite.
 
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