Another Modified Martingale

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#1
You start with $4000

Bet Amount | Total amount lost if hand lost | Total amount won if hand won

1.) $50 | -$50 | +$50
2.) $100 | -$150 | +$50
3.) $150 | -$300 | +$0
4.) $200 | -$500 | -$100
5.) $300 | -$800 | -$200
6.) $500 | -$1300 | -$300
7.) $1000 | -$2300 | -$300
8.) $2000 | -$4300 | -$300



Out of all my years of doing this, I feel like this is the safest approach in terms of risk and reward compared to my other systems. (older posts)

With my other systems, the hole was much deeper when WINNING on 4,5,6,7,8,or 9 hands lost. This one is much easier to dig out from.

Everybody knows you'll lose 8 hands in a row from time to time. But the frequency of it occurring (regardless of what the count is) will be much less than the amount of times you reach your goal and leave the table.

If you're up $500 , get outta there & come back another day. How long will that take to accomplish ? Usually 15 to 30 minutes.

yea, you'll lose $4,000 if you lose 8 hands in a row....but like I said, you'll be up more than you'll be down considering it's only a session of 15 minutes to a half hour each and every time. (occasionally 45 minutes at most)

I already know i'm gonna get :whip: here....considering it's generally how the crowd works around here. But this is much safer than the other Martingales.

Counting isn't the only way to win in the long term. If ever there is a type of Martingale the casinos prefer you not to use, this would probably be it.
 
#2
mikeinjersey said:
You start with $4000

Bet Amount | Total amount lost if hand lost | Total amount won if hand won

1.) $50 | -$50 | +$50
2.) $100 | -$150 | +$50
3.) $150 | -$300 | +$0
4.) $200 | -$500 | -$100
5.) $300 | -$800 | -$200
6.) $500 | -$1300 | -$300
7.) $1000 | -$2300 | -$300
8.) $2000 | -$4300 | -$300



Out of all my years of doing this, I feel like this is the safest approach in terms of risk and reward compared to my other systems. (older posts)
Go get 'em tiger!
Back to the drawing board!
If at first you don't succeed, try try again!
With faith all things are possible! z:laugh:g

Ps - Fuhgettaboutit!
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#3
mikeinjersey said:
You start with $4000

Bet Amount | Total amount lost if hand lost | Total amount won if hand won

1.) $50 | -$50 | +$50
2.) $100 | -$150 | +$50
3.) $150 | -$300 | +$0
4.) $200 | -$500 | -$100
5.) $300 | -$800 | -$200
6.) $500 | -$1300 | -$300
7.) $1000 | -$2300 | -$300
8.) $2000 | -$4300 | -$300



Out of all my years of doing this, I feel like this is the safest approach in terms of risk and reward compared to my other systems. (older posts)

With my other systems, the hole was much deeper when WINNING on 4,5,6,7,8,or 9 hands lost. This one is much easier to dig out from.

Everybody knows you'll lose 8 hands in a row from time to time. But the frequency of it occurring (regardless of what the count is) will be much less than the amount of times you reach your goal and leave the table.

If you're up $500 , get outta there & come back another day. How long will that take to accomplish ? Usually 15 to 30 minutes.

yea, you'll lose $4,000 if you lose 8 hands in a row....but like I said, you'll be up more than you'll be down considering it's only a session of 15 minutes to a half hour each and every time. (occasionally 45 minutes at most)

I already know i'm gonna get :whip: here....considering it's generally how the crowd works around here. But this is much safer than the other Martingales.

Counting isn't the only way to win in the long term. If ever there is a type of Martingale the casinos prefer you not to use, this would probably be it.
Absolutely brilliant! If you definitely want to lose money this is the way to go!

BTW, your last (win) column is totally incorrect. It makes it appear that this "digression" is even worse than it actually is.

I'm certain you have at least a couple of functioning brain cells in that head of yours. If only you could use them for good instead of stupidity! :whip::laugh::rolleyes:;)
 
#4
zengrifter said:
Go get 'em tiger!
Back to the drawing board!
If at first you don't succeed, try try again!
With faith all things are possible! z:laugh:g

Ps - Fuhgettaboutit!
I never did go back to the drawing board. Just revised tactics for the noobs out there.

21gunsalute said:
BTW, your last (win) column is totally incorrect. It makes it appear that this "digression" is even worse than it actually is.
And I say you're wrong for saying its incorrect.

Maybe a little deceiving, but still correct.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#5
mikeinjersey said:
I never did go back to the drawing board. Just revised tactics for the noobs out there.



And I say you're wrong for saying its incorrect.

Maybe a little deceiving, but still correct.
According to your math if you win all 8 hands you still lose $300. All progressions are bad, but none are so bad that they defy the laws of mathematics. Good to see that you actually thought this one through clearly. :rolleyes:

mikeinjersey said:
If you're up $500 , get outta there & come back another day. How long will that take to accomplish ? Usually 15 to 30 minutes.

yea, you'll lose $4,000 if you lose 8 hands in a row....but like I said, you'll be up more than you'll be down considering it's only a session of 15 minutes to a half hour each and every time. (occasionally 45 minutes at most)

I already know i'm gonna get :whip: here....considering it's generally how the crowd works around here. But this is much safer than the other Martingales.

Counting isn't the only way to win in the long term. If ever there is a type of Martingale the casinos prefer you not to use, this would probably be it.
Uh, I don't see anyway you're ever going to win $500 with this system, but let's pretend for a minute that you can. Would you invest in a stock that you could possibly gain $500 on the upside when you know that the downside is that you could lose $4300? I know your answer will be yes because you are apparently incapable of understanding basic mathematics and you are too stubborn to listen to reason and logic, instead choosing to defend even your most dimwitted ideas to the point of making yourself look like an out and out fool.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#7
21gunsalute said:
According to your math if you win all 8 hands you still lose $300.
I know exactly what you meant, but that isn't what you posted. You have negative numbers in your win column, which is actually based on losing every hand up to that point and then winning that hand. I'm going to assume then that you are flat betting when you win. Is this correct? If so, then how the hell are you ever going to be able to win $500? The only way you're going to be able to do that is if you win 2 lose 1...until you're 10 units ahead. (At any other point in your digression you are going to have an exponential loss to overcome). Given that a player is only going to win a hand 43% of the time if playing optimally, that is not a very likely scenario. Furthermore, such a win would have absolutely nothing to do with the progression you mentioned because you would be just flat betting during this time so the results would be the same as those of the flat better.

I can't put this any plainer: Your system is stupid! Only an absolute idiot would even attempt to implement this garbage. This is far worse than martingale because you never get ahead using this progression. Even after losing just 2 hands in a row you'd have to win 3 in a row just to break even. You'd always have to follow up a losing streak with a winning streak that is at least 1 win higher than the length of your losing streak. And as you stated in another thread:

mikeinjersey said:
Winning 5 straight hands happens very infrequently.
 
#8
21gunsalute said:
I may not be very smart, but I'm smart enough to be able to learn to count and I'm smart enough to be able to understand playing progressions is a terrible way to go. I'm smart enough to understand that risking $4300 to win at most $500 is just plain downright stupid! And how the hell could you ever win $500 using this endangered feeces system anyway?



I know exactly what you meant, but that isn't what you posted. You have negative numbers in your win column, which is actually based on losing every hand up to that point and then winning that hand. I'm going to assume then that you are flat betting when you win. Is this correct? If so, then how the hell are you ever going to be able to win $500? The only way you're going to be able to do that is if you win 2 lose 1...until you're 10 units ahead. (At any other point in your digression you are going to have an exponential loss to overcome). Given that a player is only going to win a hand 43% of the time if playing optimally, that is not a very likely scenario. Furthermore, such a win would have absolutely nothing to do with the progression you mentioned because you would be just flat betting during this time so the results would be the same as those of the flat better.

I can't put this any plainer: Your system is stupid! Only an absolute idiot would even attempt to implement this garbage. This is far worse than martingale because you never get ahead using this progression. Even after losing just 2 hands in a row you'd have to win 3 in a row just to break even. You'd always have to follow up a losing streak with a winning streak that is at least 1 win higher than the length of your losing streak. And as you stated in another thread:

Play a blackjack simulator with my exact setup before claiming nonsense & hypotheticals if it works or not..

remember to stop at $500 each time...and get a fresh shuffle for next session.
 
#9
I am not exactly sure what 21gunsalute meant to win 8 in a row and be ahead $300. This series hits the mark, LLLWWWWWWWW.

Let us assume you win 49% of the time for each bet you make on average after negating pushes, that is a very generous assumption.

Progression end:
W .49*50 = 24.5
LW .51*.49*50 = 12.45
LLW .51*.51*.49 = 0
LLLW .51*.51*.51*.49*(-100) = -6.5
LLLLW .51*.51*.51*.51*.49*(-200) = -6.63
LLLLLW .51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.49*(-300) = -5.14
LLLLLLW .51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.49*(-300) = -2.59
LLLLLLLW .51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.49*(-300) = -1.32
LLLLLLLL .51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*.51*(-4300) = -19.68

total winning progressions in a cycle = 37
total lossing progressions in a cycle = -41.86
Total cycle expectation = -4.86
 

QFIT

Well-Known Member
#10
mikeinjersey said:
Play a blackjack simulator with my exact setup before claiming nonsense & hypotheticals if it works or not..

remember to stop at $500 each time...and get a fresh shuffle for next session.
It fails. It is nonsense. ALL modifications MUST fail. If you find a magic combination of bets that works, the Earth will cease to exist. It is that simple.
 

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#11
tthree said:
I am not exactly sure what 21gunsalute meant to win 8 in a row and be ahead $300.
Probably because I said nothing of the sort. In the "Total Amount Won" column after 8 hands the progressionist is still down $300. The way the OP has presented this makes it appear that he'd be down $300 after winning all 8 hands.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#15
mikeinjersey said:
Play a blackjack simulator with my exact setup before claiming nonsense & hypotheticals if it works or not..
Read the stickies before claiming nonsense & hypotheticals. Pay particular attention to the posting guidelines for this forum.

Thread closed.

-Sonny-
 
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