When to leave with a high count

#1
I just started practicing the red 7 count with a six-deck shoe. My set up was that I had $200 in chips, playing a 1-5 spread and my pivot point was 50 starting at 36. The shoe was cut at 1.5 decks like they do at the Bluechip casino, where I play since I'm 2 miles from it, in Michigan City.
The first shoe, I went slow making sure that I had the count down and came out a $100 ahead even taking insurance when the count was high and winning 2 out the 3 insurance bets (I didn't take insurance when it was low). If I was at the casino I would of just left the table with the extra $100 but since I was just practicing, I had my girlfriend shuffle another shoe and played with the $300 doing the same thing. But something weird happen. The count stayed, for the first 6 hands, around 34-38 and then sky rocketed to the 50-54 range. I adjusted my bets to the count but the low cards just kept coming out with little to no high cards. I would double down on 11 and get a 2 with a count of 55 and the dealer showing a 6 and then pulling the 5 card 21.
After losing half of my chips, I dropped the counting and just went back to flat betting. The low cards kept coming with very little face cards so I started to stray a little from basic and hitting more the doubling or splitting. In the end I broke even with 40 units.
When I checked the cards that were cut out, there where a wide spread of tens and aces left.
Ok, after that long story, my two-part question is: Has this sort of thing happen to anyone else or did I just fudged the count somewhere? If so, at what point in a plus count do you leave the table if you don't see results? Like if your at +5 and you play 4 more hands and still hardly any face cards are coming out, making the count stay the same or higher, you just say "cold deck" give up and leave the table.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#2
Unfortunately, that's not unusual

Welcome to the world of variance, or luck. Just because the shoe is full of good cards doesn't mean they aren't all hiding behind the cut card. It also doesn't mean that the dealer won't draw all the 20s and blackjacks while you seem to pair up your face cards with 5s and 6s every hand.

That's one of the things that makes this game difficult to master. It just seems like you should always do well when the count is good. Instead, you'll take your biggest losses when the count is great, because that's when you're betting the money. Sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose, but you just have to keep the faith. The fabled long-run isn't really that long a time if you keep playing accurately.

When to leave with a high count? When you run out of money! :D

The phrase "cold deck" doesn't mean a thing except when used to describe what has already happened.
 
#3
Thanks

Thanks for straightening my head out. I forgot that those types of swings happen. I guess I got excited that it was working the first time around.
Your right about the "cold shoe" I didn't know it was cold until it was played out to the cut card.
I should of just kept the count and bet the chips the same way instead of assuming that the rest deck was full of low cards. If I would of left the casino table with that assumption I could have passed up allot of big hands at the end of the shoe.
 

Mackhack

Well-Known Member
#4
Hi,

I had the same couple weeks ago. I use K-O, adjusted the IRC, Pivot and Key Count to +5, +21 and +22.

My count rised at a 7 boxes table (full) after 3 games to 47 and I bet 100 Dollars. I back-counted. I got just small cards. I did that 4 times more. I lost all 4 hands. After the shoe was delt out and the started to re-shuffle we asked to see the shoe. Same result. Almost all 10s, pictures and Aces were behind the cut card :flame:

Shit happens. The next shoe: The totally different way. Count rised after 50 % of the deck to 37 and the whole table won all hands and a few bet very high :laugh:

The long run is crucial.
 
#5
I was leafing thru a book in the bookstore today, I think the title was simply "Blackjack", but I could be wrong. It mentioned shuffle tracking as a good method for deciding when to walk away when the count is high or putting more money in when the count is low. This happens when you hit a clump of face cards, driving the count down but the clump raises your expectation untill it runs out. Same goes in reverse for clumps of low cards. Low cards raise the count so you put in more money but you will loose it if the low card clump doesn't run out. It proposes that you can track these clumps by taking advantage of non-random shuffling. I didn't read much more past that. It seems flaky to me.

Good Luck
 

Mackhack

Well-Known Member
#6
bubblesort said:
I was leafing thru a book in the bookstore today, I think the title was simply "Blackjack", but I could be wrong. It mentioned shuffle tracking as a good method for deciding when to walk away when the count is high or putting more money in when the count is low. This happens when you hit a clump of face cards, driving the count down but the clump raises your expectation untill it runs out. Same goes in reverse for clumps of low cards. Low cards raise the count so you put in more money but you will loose it if the low card clump doesn't run out. It proposes that you can track these clumps by taking advantage of non-random shuffling. I didn't read much more past that. It seems flaky to me.

Good Luck
Hi,

that is right, but also very difficult to perform, I heared.

I got these situations recently. The count raised to the sky (start at +5 and my key count is 22) 48, I bet 250 bucks and I lost it. I bet another 250 and i lost it again. After we reached the cut card I asked the dealer to see the cards which were left. I would say 70 % of all face cards, aces and some of 10s where there :-(

Can happen, but usually, you can trust what the count tells you.

Like yesterday. Singel Deck, face up. Count raised in the first round up to 16, friend and I bet each 500 bucks table max. and 5 of 6 players got BJs or 20s. Dealer hat 6 as upcard and busted with 26. That was (more than) clear that this has to happen.

Good luck to you!
 
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