Tracking the cutoff

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
I played around with tracking the cutoff before and I did get the Malmuth book that was recommended but the way I used to try and place a favorable cutoff was to put it about 1.5 decks in front of the cut card so I would get the good cards right before the end of the shoe.

The reason for this was that I did not have enough confidence in my tracking the cutoff to put it in front and bet heavy off the top. I wanted to be able to justify with my count vs. decks played that I was in fact making the right move.

I dont know if this does more harm that good or is beneficial in anyway or not. I am playing the game just as according to count so there is no loss there and I do have the added info of knowing I will probably get a favorable slug at the place were a high running count carries more weight, toward the end.
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#2
Pro: You decrease your chances of making costly betting errors if those good cards didn't end up where you thought they would.

Con: You'll be playing just like a counter, and risk getting caught.

With a juicy shuffle where you can track cutoffs, you need to have the skill level to bet with confidence off the top. This will get you good comps and allow you to be viewed by the pit as a "good player."

You don't want to get barred from an opportunity like this betting like a counter.
 
#3
Dopple said:
I played around with tracking the cutoff before and I did get the Malmuth book that was recommended but the way I used to try and place a favorable cutoff was to put it about 1.5 decks in front of the cut card so I would get the good cards right before the end of the shoe.

The reason for this was that I did not have enough confidence in my tracking the cutoff to put it in front and bet heavy off the top. I wanted to be able to justify with my count vs. decks played that I was in fact making the right move.

I dont know if this does more harm that good or is beneficial in anyway or not.
If you can find the right shuffle do not pussyfoot around. There is no middle ground between your
straight count and your inside cutoff knowledge. There is no 'hedge' gained, just do it! zg
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#4
Dopple said:
The reason for this was that I did not have enough confidence in my tracking the cutoff to put it in front and bet heavy off the top. I wanted to be able to justify with my count vs. decks played that I was in fact making the right move.
This really is NOT an exact science, nor does it HAVE to be. If you're only right MOST of the time; you'll have a bigger edge than straight counting. Once you realize that a close estimation is all that's necessary in order to make the big bets off the top, the confidence WILL be there. Like ZG says - don't pussyfoot around; just DO it!
 
#6
Dopple said:
I played around with tracking the cutoff before and I did get the Malmuth book that was recommended but the way I used to try and place a favorable cutoff was to put it about 1.5 decks in front of the cut card so I would get the good cards right before the end of the shoe.

The reason for this was that I did not have enough confidence in my tracking the cutoff to put it in front and bet heavy off the top. I wanted to be able to justify with my count vs. decks played that I was in fact making the right move.

I dont know if this does more harm that good or is beneficial in anyway or not. I am playing the game just as according to count so there is no loss there and I do have the added info of knowing I will probably get a favorable slug at the place were a high running count carries more weight, toward the end.
You get more EV from doing what you are doing. It is not a matter of confidence in your abilities, as much as getting rid of some of the unavoidable randomness of shuffles, by using the cutoff tracking to force a count to go positive rather than assuming a normal distribution. Faith has a place but never accept something on faith when you have a chance to look and see. That is a perversion of faith. Or as our greatest modern President Reagan said- "Trust, but verify."

Just as important is forcing the high cards to be someplace other than behind the cut card. Any place but that will do. Leaving low cards up front that give you a nice count but leaving the high cards behind that cut card can be devastating. Cutoff tracking is one of the weaker methods of tracking that is used primarily in conjunction with counting, and is rarely if ever strong enough to use as a substitute for it.
 
#7
A Common or Different Take?

If you cut them toward the cut card you have to sit through those negative hands. If you cut them to the front you can finish with the shoe and leave it for better opportunities.

If you are trapped at the one table then the ability to put them in different places would be good camo.

:joker::whip:
cut em up!
 

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#8
Lets stir the pot

Given your choice of two 6D shoes with all rules and conditions the same except on e being an ASM with S17 vs. a hand dealt with H17 would you take the hand dealt for heads up play and sacrifice the .2% difference between the H17 and S17 to get the benefit of the cut off ST?

:whip:
 

Blue Efficacy

Well-Known Member
#9
Dopple said:
Given your choice of two 6D shoes with all rules and conditions the same except on e being an ASM with S17 vs. a hand dealt with H17 would you take the hand dealt for heads up play and sacrifice the .2% difference between the H17 and S17 to get the benefit of the cut off ST?

:whip:
Abso-****ing-lutely.

FLASH1296 might disagree with me though :laugh:
 
#10
Dopple said:
Given your choice of two 6D shoes with all rules and conditions the same except on e being an ASM with S17 vs. a hand dealt with H17 would you take the hand dealt for heads up play and sacrifice the .2% difference between the H17 and S17 to get the benefit of the cut off ST?

:whip:
Probably not. But maybe. We're talking cutoff tracking here, you can only expect a few RC to be preserved for the next shuffle. Unless the shuffle is exceptionally vulnerable.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#11
Dopple said:
Given your choice of two 6D shoes with all rules and conditions the same except on e being an ASM with S17 vs. a hand dealt with H17 would you take the hand dealt for heads up play and sacrifice the .2% difference between the H17 and S17 to get the benefit of the cut off ST?

:whip:
I'd take the S17 game. Besides the .2%, you will play more hands per hour with an ASM.
 

itrack

Well-Known Member
#12
Like AM said, it would depend on how vulnerable the shuffle actually is. If you can only track the cutoffs or a small section of the cutoffs, it probably isn't worth your time just because most of the time, these cutoffs aren't going to be anything special.
However if you could follow 1 randomly placed slug through the shuffle, then it would be a different story. Since there is almost always 1 good slug in a shoe, I would deffinately play this game over the S17 game.

Feel free to PM me with the type of shuffle and I'll give you a deffinate answer.
 
#14
My technique

This is how I cut cards in and out of play. First I determine one or more sections of the shoe that are most likely to survive the shuffle unmolested. These get tracked no matter what they are. This way you may not get the strongest concentrations of high/low cards to mess with but at least what you will get is reliable.

Represent the tracked sections with upper case and the cut card insertion points with lower case.

For one section, A

If A is high insert cut card at point a.

If A is low insert cut card at point b.

For two sections, A & B

If A and B are high insert cut card at point a
If A is high and B is low insert cut card at point b
If A is low and B is high insert cut card at point c.
If A and B are low insert cut card at point d.

Exactly where those points a,b,c,d are depends on what you decided you want to do with the high and low cards. As stated before, the shuffles I have to play don't give you enough tracking power to put a big bet out based on tracking data alone, but they can be used to augment the power of counting by producing more big counts and keeping high cards out of the cutoff.
 
#15
Automatic Monkey said:
Cutoff tracking is one of the weaker methods of tracking that is used primarily in conjunction with counting, and is rarely if ever strong enough to use as a substitute for it.
COT is weak ONLY because its hard to find the shuffle. But when you find one its very strong - to be able to play a deeply dealt game with a starting advantage 2 out of 3 shoes (provided you can wield the cut card. zg
 
#16
itrack said:
If you can only track the cutoffs ... it probably isn't worth your time just because most of the time, these cutoffs aren't going to be anything special.
Most of the time they will yield a starting advantage, and
all of the time the technique will yield deep penetration. zg
 
#17
Dopple said:
Given your choice of two 6D shoes with all rules and conditions the same except on e being an ASM with S17 vs. a hand dealt with H17 would you take the hand dealt for heads up play and sacrifice the .2% difference between the H17 and S17 to get the benefit of the cut off ST?
All other things being equal, including decent pene,
I would take either UNLESS I could track the cutoffs. zg
 
#18
Dopple said:
You have inspired me with the courage of King David.

No more Mr. Nice Guy and more pussyfooting around. Thanks
Just make sure you really CAN do it. Practice the target shuffle at home -
- use a magic marker on the side-edge of the cards (you probably already do) zg
 
#19
zengrifter said:
Just make sure you really CAN do it. Practice the target shuffle at home -
- use a magic marker on the side-edge of the cards (you probably already do) zg
You're really showing your age there!

Magic Marker? Isn't that what they used to call Sharpies?

Seriously, I find it easier to just learn the data for a perfect shuffle, and find a dealer with a perfect shuffle. Then you don't have to watch.
 

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#20
You could test yourself on a table without even changing your routine. As rich a slug of low cards as you can find out of play and see if you are getting high counts when the shoe is over and you hit the cut card.

I kind of like the monkeys angle on this regarding improving the general EV and I would think if you felt like you cut out say 10 points you could start the shoe with RC ten AND use is smaller # for the deck division i.e. RC 10 would be 10/8 vs. 10/12, just about the point I would maybe start shading up my bets.

I hope I can refer to you as the monkey, I mean its in your name, right?:laugh:
 
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