A little help on a slight counting twist please.

#1
haha im sorry if that title confused you but I really cant think of a decent title.

I hope this is in the right section, it should be?

Let me explain.

Ok basically,

My Father used to be a dealer for many years in London and from his experience he noticed a few things and developed his own simple yet effective strategy.

He noticed how "runs" would happen. Runs where the dealer wiped the table out 4 - 5+ times in a row, and others where the players won 4 - 5+ times in a row.

So his strategy was, play minimum bet, or just wait till the right time if its not busy, and then when the dealer busted increase your bet.

So £1 minimum, when dealer busted say £20 on next hand then go back to £1. Or just wait for a bust and play then.

It was based on the "runs" idea. I know it may sound a bit funny, and that when the dealer busts it indicates a bad "run".

He used to play this method with a group of friends for the last 20 odds years and its done them all well.

Now, this is where you guys come in. I was wondering if maybe theres more to it than meats the eye.

Perhaps it could be some sort of indicator? For example 70% of dealer busts is when the count is +1 for example?...........An indicator to say the player has an advantage. Obviously it wouldn't be EVERY time but possible more times than not.

I was wondering if this could be something that could be simulated or if anyone could have any idea about any maths involved if any?

Please dont knock it as hes been using it for the last so many years and its worked good for him and the friends he played with, im just wondering if there could be something behind it mathematically?

I hope ive explained it well and what im looking for,

Thanks guys

Regards
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#2
supermat007 said:
haha im sorry if that title confused you but I really cant think of a decent title.

I hope this is in the right section, it should be?

Let me explain.

Ok basically,

My Father used to be a dealer for many years in London and from his experience he noticed a few things and developed his own simple yet effective strategy.

He noticed how "runs" would happen. Runs where the dealer wiped the table out 4 - 5+ times in a row, and others where the players won 4 - 5+ times in a row.

So his strategy was, play minimum bet, or just wait till the right time if its not busy, and then when the dealer busted increase your bet.

So £1 minimum, when dealer busted say £20 on next hand then go back to £1. Or just wait for a bust and play then.

It was based on the "runs" idea. I know it may sound a bit funny, and that when the dealer busts it indicates a bad "run".

He used to play this method with a group of friends for the last 20 odds years and its done them all well.

Now, this is where you guys come in. I was wondering if maybe theres more to it than meats the eye.

Perhaps it could be some sort of indicator? For example 70% of dealer busts is when the count is +1 for example?...........An indicator to say the player has an advantage. Obviously it wouldn't be EVERY time but possible more times than not.

I was wondering if this could be something that could be simulated or if anyone could have any idea about any maths involved if any?

Please dont knock it as hes been using it for the last so many years and its worked good for him and the friends he played with, im just wondering if there could be something behind it mathematically?

I hope ive explained it well and what im looking for,

Thanks guys

Regards
A win/loss is not indicative of more to come.

Math (well, sim)-> http://blackjackincolor.com/useless3.htm

SPAMformers! More than meats the eye! mmmm spam...
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#3
supermat007 said:
Please dont knock it as hes been using it for the last so many years and its worked good for him and the friends he played with, im just wondering if there could be something behind it mathematically?
This is nothing more than "voodoo" blackjack. I'll promise not to knock it if you'll promise to stop trying to insult my intelligence.
 
#4
Sorry I didn't mean to insult anyone and I wasn't trying to, I guess I just phrased it wrong.

Also im not any kind of spam, I just wanted some advice.

I understand how a previous result doesnt effect the next result.

What I was asking was, when the dealer busts maybe it happens more times when the count is positive than negative and it could be used as a very basic indicator for when to raise your bet?
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#5
supermat007 said:
What I was asking was, when the dealer busts maybe it happens more times when the count is positive than negative and it could be used as a very basic indicator for when to raise your bet?
Sure, a positive count is a good indicator of when to raise your bets. The main reason is because of the bonuses for blackjacks and double-downs. But, inversely, a busting dealer is not an indicator of a positive count. In fact, it is more likely the indicator of a neutral count. The dealer bust rate really doesn't give you any useful information about the game.

-Sonny-
 

SleightOfHand

Well-Known Member
#6
Sonny said:
Sure, a positive count is a good indicator of when to raise your bets. The main reason is because of the bonuses for blackjacks and double-downs. But, inversely, a busting dealer is not an indicator of a positive count. In fact, it is more likely the indicator of a neutral count. The dealer bust rate really doesn't give you any useful information about the game.

-Sonny-
^^ What he said

supermat007 said:
Sorry I didn't mean to insult anyone and I wasn't trying to, I guess I just phrased it wrong.

Also im not any kind of spam, I just wanted some advice.

I understand how a previous result doesnt effect the next result.

What I was asking was, when the dealer busts maybe it happens more times when the count is positive than negative and it could be used as a very basic indicator for when to raise your bet?
I didn't mean you are spam, i was talking about Spam, the "meat." Was just joking around :p
 

caramel6

Well-Known Member
#7
supermat007 said:
Sorry I didn't mean to insult anyone and I wasn't trying to, I guess I just phrased it wrong.

Also im not any kind of spam, I just wanted some advice.

I understand how a previous result doesnt effect the next result.

What I was asking was, when the dealer busts maybe it happens more times when the count is positive than negative and it could be used as a very basic indicator for when to raise your bet?
looks interesting, could you PM me?Thanks! Which casino your dad was working ? (if you do not mind me asking? )
 
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