A bad week.

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#1
Talk about being on the wrong side of the curve this week was the worst. I got back from Vegas a few days ago and was glad to get the hell out of town. Normally when I go I may have one or two even three bad sessions and then it turns around for me. This week was the trip from hell or should say to hell with not a winning session all week. Five days and twenty stores with all losses on all sessions amounts to one big loss. It didn't matter where or when I played I lost every shoe and it didn't matter heads up or with others. My wife wondered what was wrong and I couldn't even explain it to her because it has never happpend this bad before. I'm going to the local joints in the area to recoup my losses and put last week behind me. :cry:
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#2
blackchipjim said:
Talk about being on the wrong side of the curve this week was the worst. I got back from Vegas a few days ago and was glad to get the hell out of town. Normally when I go I may have one or two even three bad sessions and then it turns around for me. This week was the trip from hell or should say to hell with not a winning session all week. Five days and twenty stores with all losses on all sessions amounts to one big loss. It didn't matter where or when I played I lost every shoe and it didn't matter heads up or with others. My wife wondered what was wrong and I couldn't even explain it to her because it has never happpend this bad before. I'm going to the local joints in the area to recoup my losses and put last week behind me. :cry:
Hang in there, Jim! I am going through a pretty horrid couple of months myself, worst of my career, so I feel your pain. I always like to say "sometimes you're the windsheild, sometimes the bug". :laugh: Gets a little frustrating when you are the bug too often though. I like to think the biggest thing we have going is the knowledge of the mathematics involved. It will soon turn around for both of us and we will be stronger for it. :)
 

southAP

Well-Known Member
#3
Any AP that gets enough hours in is going to have those bad weeks, between last Feb-Apr i played somewhere between 80-100 hours and didnt make a single cent. after about 20 hours i wonged out at 0 instead of TC-1 and still got a huge beating. hang in there as long as you play a solid game you'll come back.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#4
kewljason said:
Hang in there, Jim! I am going through a pretty horrid couple of months myself, worst of my career, so I feel your pain. I always like to say "sometimes you're the windsheild, sometimes the bug". :laugh: Gets a little frustrating when you are the bug too often though. I like to think the biggest thing we have going is the knowledge of the mathematics involved. It will soon turn around for both of us and we will be stronger for it. :)
I must confess that blackjack has "bugged" me more than I care to say. At first I attributed it to possible inexperience. Now I realize that it is the sentence of every card counter everywhere. As a part-time player, I find it less "bugging" to reduce my EV with smaller than recommended spreads. But what I have found hard to overcome is the power of the card counting logic. It keeps me returning to playing by the book, and invariably running into those monster swings from time to time at max bet. The bottom line is, if you want to make money, you must go through the continual baptism by fire; if you don't mind earning a pittance, just breaking even, or losing moderately, you can reduce the swings to a more easily tolerable level by reducing those betting spreads. So what will it be--the money or entertainment?

My hat's off to anyone who makes a living at this game. They deserve every penny they make. The sad fact is, they generally deserve many times more than what they earn. No matter how well funded they become, their fate is always hanging in the balance, at least, in the short-term. What happens in a billion sims is not required to happen in a few thousand. That is why I always wish, "Good luck!"
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#5
killer variance!

There are times when intestinal fortitiude is all the ap has left. It's hard to have someone close to you know what's going on but yet not understand. Walking into these joints and having your head handed to you on the way out is devastating to say the least. Yes I trust the math but losing your bankroll then have some dealer telling you what you are doing wrong just drives me over the edge sometimes. I normally don't show too much emotion but the one of the dealer chickees got to me and I tossed my last three whites her way and walked out of the casino.I was doing more scouting this trip then really hard core playing so it shouldn't have bothered me but hell it did after awhile. I'm not whining because I've learned to accept it as part of the game.As Gunny Ermin would say" let's just stroll over to mambe bamsie land and get in touch with my inner feelings you big crybaby":laugh:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#6
blackchipjim said:
There are times when intestinal fortitiude is all the ap has left. It's hard to have someone close to you know what's going on but yet not understand. Walking into these joints and having your head handed to you on the way out is devastating to say the least. Yes I trust the math but losing your bankroll then have some dealer telling you what you are doing wrong just drives me over the edge sometimes. I normally don't show too much emotion but the one of the dealer chickees got to me and I tossed my last three whites her way and walked out of the casino.I was doing more scouting this trip then really hard core playing so it shouldn't have bothered me but hell it did after awhile. I'm not whining because I've learned to accept it as part of the game.As Gunny Ermin would say" let's just stroll over to mambe bamsie land and get in touch with my inner feelings you big crybaby":laugh:
The ploppies that surround one (including one's better half) are likely to believe that you are a gambling addict who thinks he can beat the "unbeatable" house. I generally don't share detailed information about my losses with my spouse, but when I win, I plop a large portion of it, up to half, in her little, ploppy hand--bless her ploppy heart. :gaga:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#7
blackchipjim said:
.... I'm not whining because I've learned to accept it as part of the game.As Gunny Ermin would say" let's just stroll over to mambe bamsie land and get in touch with my inner feelings you big crybaby":laugh:
hell man i whine on a nickle loss, no joke man. it just sucks is all, dammit, so but as we always say, it comes with the territory.:cry::whip:
you want a tissue?:joker::whip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtSYZi7zd7A

but really jim, just me maybe but i believe if you can broaden your horizon a bit, have more and varied types of attacks on the casino the variance problem probably would slack off a good deal for you.
thing is just bj counting alone, well by the nature of it there is gonna be that variance.
 

Attachments

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#8
variance

Heck I do more than just count in my game. When opportunities present themselves I use them all I think it was just circumstances of the week that got the better of me. Breaking even gets to me much less a loss just the way it happend last week got me miffed. As far as confiding in my darling about losses she wears a portion of my winnings on her fingers,ears and around her neck when stepping out on the town. She don't like it when I lose because she senses things in a different light. I get unnerved figuiring out if I could have attacked the game different or if I really just missed the signs to bail. I'm over it already since I have to prepare for another assault monday or tuesday or both I don't have time wallow in self pity. Vegas is Vegas and I missed my mark but like Arnold says"I'll be back".
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#9
blackchipjim said:
Heck I do more than just count in my game. When opportunities present themselves I use them all I think it was just circumstances of the week that got the better of me. Breaking even gets to me much less a loss just the way it happend last week got me miffed. As far as confiding in my darling about losses she wears a portion of my winnings on her fingers,ears and around her neck when stepping out on the town. She don't like it when I lose because she senses things in a different light. I get unnerved figuiring out if I could have attacked the game different or if I really just missed the signs to bail. I'm over it already since I have to prepare for another assault monday or tuesday or both I don't have time wallow in self pity. Vegas is Vegas and I missed my mark but like Arnold says"I'll be back".
Just what IS the sign to bail when the count is +12 and you're losing every hand??? Anyone???
 

HockeXpert

Well-Known Member
#10
aslan said:
Just what IS the sign to bail when the count is +12 and you're losing every hand??? Anyone???
A convention of suits and security gathering behind me! That's the only thing that will make me leave.:laugh:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#11
aslan said:
Just what IS the sign to bail when the count is +12 and you're losing every hand??? Anyone???
for that specific instance i dunno. maybe never for that one?
but in the spirit of your question one can still muse upon it:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=193839&postcount=97
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=195773&postcount=29
just the other day i had a chance on a 'tremendous' advantage, previous to that instance the day had been mediocre at best far as my results EV wise. in other words the day up to that point had been fairly normal for my experience of the plays i'm used to, sorta thing. i'd made about a hundred bucks. but this last play likely to present for the day (the one with the 'tremendous' advantage called for a fifty dollar bet to be optimal.
so what did i do? made a ten dollar bet and made about fifty ending my day up a bit over normal with one hundred and fifty, whereas if i'd of made the optimal bet i'd of been up nearly four hundred, lol. oh well.

like ok, me, yeah i understand the principle, the principle is just play it dammitt, it's plus EV so why on earth wouldn't one play it? it's all just one big long game, so keep playing as long as you have the advantage. win stops and lose stops have no relevance with respect to advantage, just slows you down, so just do it man! with advantage in bj and other stuff there is a certain overall frequency for which it presents in the long run and it doesn't tend to be the largest percent of the time, so answer the call, just do it, opportunity doesn't knock twice, sorta thing! hey, you payed gas for this trip, you had expenses, this is what you are here for, go for it!

you look at the world of mankind and can ask, what are the limits if there are any. maybe there aren't, but prosperity is seemingly all the hell out of skew from extreme poverty to poor to middling to well off to the other side of off the scale just hog heaven rolling in the dough. business is that way as well, the scale is just off the hook, beyond most if any mathematicians capability to put a handle on and come up with some magic formula that says this is it folks, the answer to mankind's economic woes.
kelly stuff says just go full steam ahead, you'll make it, you'll go through the roof! and never go broke. but who goes full kelly? who could stand it! a roller coaster ride beyond the amusement parks customers capability to withstand the thrill, maybe? obviously a computer can handle it. just me maybe but i'm to dam weak, scared and insecure to handle it. maybe i could handle it with your money, lol, but i'd still be full of concern about your welfare and what your welfare means to my welfare.
me, well for a good part of forty eight years what i've been used to is work a day for so much pay, sorta thing. that was a thing one could get a handle on, keep one's bearing, sorta thing. sure black swans good and bad swooped down upon me, but the one constant was work a day for so much pay. so hard to teach an old dog new tricks maybe. i just like to see some fairly normal results for the effort i put forth sorta thing, just i can't seem to change that aspect of my nature.

somehow, when it comes to advantage, for whatever reason i dunno, i keep seeing it in relation to what goes on in the natural world, and this concept of negative capability from the poet Keats, that Dr. Evans refered to. http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=195202&postcount=25
i think about the critters in the wilderness, the flowers of the field, mountain ranges and the whole darn universe. that stuff just sorta happens, the critters don't sweat it man, they just do their thing and live on another day, lol. they just pretty much eat their fill and go on about their lives. that just seems such a cool way of going about it, lol.
negative capability, a pretty cool concept.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#13
Sharky said:
seriously?
You had to ask?

The times when you have the advantage are also the times when you are most vulnerable to large losses. blackchipjim was lamenting the fact that he may have missed a sign that he should have bailed out.
I get unnerved figuiring out if I could have attacked the game different or if I really just missed the signs to bail.

That's when I posed the tongue in cheek question, "Just what IS the sign to bail when the count is +12 and you're losing every hand???

...as if it ever makes sense to bail when you have the advantage, provided you are adequately bankrolled! If you aren't, then, all I can say is, "You shouldn't have been playing in the first place."

Okay?
 

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#15
Plus count bailouts?

Really never is the answer to the plus count bailouts. I have lost alot of money in these situations and regretted banging it out to the end. On the other hand I have recouped big losses at the end by being diligent and not backing down. I had another bad day yesterday with high counts and not getting one hand to play out. Every hand was not above 15 with the dealer not busting and killing me. The yo-yos at the table were making a killing with me sitting gettin my arse kicked. I eventually made it back to even and left. This was of course better than last week's performance which was nothing but a slide further into negative territory.
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#16
Approach shouldn't change

If you're properly bankrolled, your AP game shouldn't change one iota because of "streaks" (real or perceived). Always remember it's about numbers!

BillyC1
 

tensplitter

Well-Known Member
#17
One time I was down $600 in a session after losing several max bets in a row. The count was still high so I kept max betting and got even. The worst thing to do is leave a high count or reduce your max bet in a high count. If the count's going up while you're losing, increase your bet! That'll also show that you're chasing your losses. The average gambler might leave after losing many hands in a row, but we're not gamblers.

That's why you carry at least twice your planned session bankroll with you.
 
#18
aslan said:
The ploppies that surround one (including one's better half) are likely to believe that you are a gambling addict who thinks he can beat the "unbeatable" house. I generally don't share detailed information about my losses with my spouse, but when I win, I plop a large portion of it, up to half, in her little, ploppy hand--bless her ploppy heart. :gaga:
Well, you know, girls usually aren't good at math and most of them would be terrified by what we do, especially the things that are a little more sinister than counting. Smart move to only show the wins. Certain things are part of the man's world only. A soldier can come home in his dress uniform with all his medals and show everyone how good he looks dressed up, but what it took to earn those medals, some of those things are best not shared with the family.
 

HockeXpert

Well-Known Member
#19
Automatic Monkey said:
Well, you know, girls usually aren't good at math and most of them would be terrified by what we do, especially the things that are a little more sinister than counting.
Well put AM. My SO (female) has no interest in counting or any other AP activity whatsoever. I've tried to get her to just help me in a myriad of ways, most with very little training, and she always declines. She's scared that the casino might not like AP activites and warns me everytime to "be careful" and gets all nervous if I talk about heat.

I always "forget" to tell her about my backoffs and tell her that "she can't handle the truth".

I think that generally female AP's, especially attractive ones, have an advantage over males when it comes to heat but I can see this changing as more and more pb's are female and can be charmed by male ap's, except the old crusty ones that are worse then the men.

HockeXpert
 

Billy C1

Well-Known Member
#20
HockeXpert said:
Well put AM. My SO (female) has no interest in counting or any other AP activity whatsoever. I've tried to get her to just help me in a myriad of ways, most with very little training, and she always declines. She's scared that the casino might not like AP activites and warns me everytime to "be careful" and gets all nervous if I talk about heat.

I always "forget" to tell her about my backoffs and tell her that "she can't handle the truth".

I think that generally female AP's, especially attractive ones, have an advantage over males when it comes to heat but I can see this changing as more and more pb's are female and can be charmed by male ap's, except the old crusty ones that are worse then the men.

HockeXpert
You may want to polish your act a little. The next time you encounter "an old crusty" one, turn on the charm (tell her you can lick your eyebrows, etc.) Don't assume that they're impossible just because they appear to be. You'll hit the wall with some but you'll also succeed with some-------------just be sure they don't follow you to your room!

BillyC1
 
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