Predicting the future

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
Kind of wild post but I like the math angle, need to brush up on some stuff but was wondering if this would be fairly easy to do. Make a little program that would generate say a billion sets of 6 deck shoes and have you play a set betting ramp and indices, create the outcome on a line graph.

You could then remove any chunk of playing time out of the graph and that could be you expected result for the next x hours.

Take that billion and expand it to approach infinity and you would have numerous black swan events and we have discussed.

Given a billion players to the billionth power I think it might be possible there would be a person that would play his entire life using good AP methods and still lose.

Some of these ideas may be good some bad, they are just curious ramblings.
 

Katweezel

Well-Known Member
#2
Trillions are in vogue

Dopple said:
Kind of wild post but I like the math angle, need to brush up on some stuff but was wondering if this would be fairly easy to do. Make a little program that would generate say a billion sets of 6 deck shoes and have you play a set betting ramp and indices, create the outcome on a line graph.

You could then remove any chunk of playing time out of the graph and that could be you expected result for the next x hours.

Take that billion and expand it to approach infinity and you would have numerous black swan events and we have discussed.

Given a billion players to the billionth power I think it might be possible there would be a person that would play his entire life using good AP methods and still lose.

Some of these ideas may be good some bad, they are just curious ramblings.
Nice one Dopp, I like your style. Come on over to Voodoo. Free drinks, this week only. :)
 

shadroch

Well-Known Member
#3
Any of you see the "Nostrodamus of the Seattle Mariners" clip on youtube?
Seems like some folks really can predict the future.
 

StandardDeviant

Well-Known Member
#4
Dopple said:
Given a billion players to the billionth power I think it might be possible there would be a person that would play his entire life using good AP methods and still lose.

Some of these ideas may be good some bad, they are just curious ramblings.
The "infinity thing" is such a mind bender. As we approach infinity, we would find some number of players who won every hand, and also some number of players who lost every hand, regardless of what playing moves they make (except surrendering every hand). Of course the probabilities are infinitely small, but they are not zero.

Another equally wierd idea involves EV. We can calculate EV and we can expect to have a result near EV after playing a long time, but it is impossible realize exactly the EV predicted. This is because we are talking about the probability of a range of results. For example the probabiity of realizing somewhere in the range of +/- 1 standard deviation of the EV is ~ 0.6. This number, 0.6, is the area under the normal distribution curve when the range is +/- 1 SD. But as the range gets smaller, i.e., +/- 1/2 SD, +/- 1/4 SD, +/- 1/1000 SD, +/- 1/10000000000 SD, etc., the area under the curve goes to zero. As the area goes to zero, so does the probability of realizing that result.
 
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