Betting the slide down?

blackchipjim

Well-Known Member
#1
I wonder how many of you have bet the slide into negative zone? You know the shoe is tanking and it's time to move but, you are winning and maybe even putting an extra chip up there because the run is unbelievable.
For some of you it's a no brainer you color up and leave for greener shoes. I'm addressing the maybe newer players or the old hats here that may use this negative slide to their advantage.( there is no +ev here).
Your're winning but you don't know when it's going to stop and you keep telling yourself the first hand you lose that's it no more. How many of you found yourself staying for the heck of it.
 

daddybo

Well-Known Member
#2
blackchipjim said:
I wonder how many of you have bet the slide into negative zone? You know the shoe is tanking and it's time to move but, you are winning and maybe even putting an extra chip up there because the run is unbelievable.
For some of you it's a no brainer you color up and leave for greener shoes. I'm addressing the maybe newer players or the old hats here that may use this negative slide to their advantage.( there is no +ev here).
Your're winning but you don't know when it's going to stop and you keep telling yourself the first hand you lose that's it no more. How many of you found yourself staying for the heck of it.
I does it in DD games (carefully) ... depending on what the cards are "looking like' .. if it's sliding into the negative zone real fast... you are usually getting good cards even though you aren't at a "probabilistic" advantage. But it do turn around fast. :laugh:
 

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#3
I confess I do it sometimes if the shoe has been pretty hot and stays hot even when the count is tanking. If it starts getting funky, then I'll be the first one up.
 

Unshake

Well-Known Member
#4
I generally do very little wonging but this seems like a waste (which is why it is in voodoo I suppose). Anyways, following the same false logic you should bet smaller when the shoe has being going bad in positive counts, thats real voodoo.
 
#5
blackchipjim said:
I wonder how many of you have bet the slide into negative zone? You know the shoe is tanking and it's time to move but, you are winning and maybe even putting an extra chip up there because the run is unbelievable.
For some of you it's a no brainer you color up and leave for greener shoes. I'm addressing the maybe newer players or the old hats here that may use this negative slide to their advantage.( there is no +ev here).
Your're winning but you don't know when it's going to stop and you keep telling yourself the first hand you lose that's it no more. How many of you found yourself staying for the heck of it.
I have made the most money I have made in blackjack in exactly this situation. There is more to card counting and winning at blackjack than knowing the count. The trend of the count is also important.

The most money I have lost at blackjack is always in the same situation. A six deck shoe, the Running Count goes into orbit immediately and the True Count is trending up fairly steeply and continues to trend up throughout the shoe. Every big loss I have had happened in this situation. The reason is obvious, because the count zoomed up immediately you are now betting larger amounts into hands that are continuing to receive small cards.

Conversely, I have made the most money I have made at blackjack while playing a shoe that is getting more and more negative, where the trend is fairly steep. The reason is obvious again, high cards are coming out. I use a positive progression during negative counts hoping to catch a downward TC trend like this.

I have been playing for 12 years, I use hi opt II with a side count of Aces, I also shuffle track and use steering and sequencing. So, I'm not a novice.

The question, I suppose, would be "is using a positive progression during negative counts a net winner or a net loser?". The big wins I obviously remember well. But, using a positive progression when the count is negative and choppy, up a little, down a little, has to be a net loser. And that happens more often than a count that is trending ever lower.

When betting the TC-1 in units I want a shoe that is gradually increasing in TC, this seems to be the best case.

I cringe when I am playing a 6 deck shoe and the Running Count goes to 40 or 50 right away. If the Running count continues to trend upward fairly steeply this is usually very bad. I was just in Vegas and all the big losses happened in this situation.

I did find something very nice in Vegas, the best games that I found were in the fetish pits on Fremont Street. The casinos on Fremont Street all have a special blackjack area where the dealers dress like strippers, some of them even have a small stage and a stripper pole. Those games are usually two deck with good to excellent penetration and the dealers don't seem to be hardened pros who hate the players. I was in a couple of places that have 100% shuffle machines in the regular table area and two deck games with good penetration in the stripper area. I don't know how long they have been doing this in Vegas but it is the place to go for good BJ (no, not THAT kind of BJ you perverts).
 
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