Automatic Monkey said:
Maybe there is some way to dilute the initial RC due to the cutoff tracking as you approach the cut card and it starts to become apparent that you didn't get an even distribution in the cutoff?
That’s a good idea, similar to how the NRS formula uses a Bernoulli-type estimation based on the information that you have seen so far. Most people will adjust their estimate of the RC at the beginning but not make any other adjustments as the cards are dealt. I suppose you could adjust your TC divisor as you go, but that might cause more trouble than it’s worth.
Automatic Monkey said:
What would you consider the best way to adjust for the variance in the cutoff RC as you approach the cut card? Example: you have a RC of +14 and there is a quarter deck left to the cut card!
There’s an easy way to adjust for that: Max bet that last hand and keep an eye on the final quarter-deck. If those big cards don’t come out, get up and walk away. If you’re off by that much then you really f*&$ed something up and need to go back and practice more. If you’re experiencing such large variances in the estimated RC then something pretty serious is wrong. Either the dealer did something differently, you didn’t estimate the grab sizes properly or the shuffle is too complicated. I would rather work on improving my accuracy instead of adjusting my bets to account for my inaccuracy. There’s always going to be some degree of inaccuracy because we are doing so much estimation, but if my actual results were that volatile I would stop and figure out what was going wrong.
That’s just me though. I only track very simple shuffles or areas that don’t move around very much. I’m sure a better tracker would probably tackle the more complex shuffles, and maybe someday I will, but for now I keep it simple and reasonably accurate. I’d rather try to shoot a squirrel with a sniper rifle than an elephant with a bazooka.
-Sonny-