Spanish 21 expected return charts?

#1
I found a store which would allow me to get 54.5% back on a Spanish 21 (S17) surrender (as opposed to the standard 50%- I would be getting $3 back from a $5.50 bet). While I know I would be more likely to surrender a hand or two, without a chart like "http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html", I don't know what my return is for hitting 16 vs 10, 16 vs A, 16 vs 9, 15 vs 10, and standing on 17 vs 10, to know whether surrender in either is the new basic strategy.

I don't assume anyone here has a chart with the Spanish 21 S17 expected values from hitting and standing, but if there is such a link, feel free to post it here. Alternatively, if anyone has the computing power to let me know the EV of hitting 16 vs 10, 16 vs A, 16 vs 9, 15 vs 10, and standing on 17 vs 10 (so I can see if it is below .545, and should therefore surrender instead), it would be appreciated. I have Katrina's book, but don't think this information is in there.
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#2
So your surrender EV is -0.455. Anytime the Hit or Stand EV is worse than -0.455 you should surrender.

Here are combinatorial outputs for 8 decks using HiLo at each count from my own Sp21 software I made. Remember the IRC = -32, so a neutral count is -4. A TC of -3 in these charts is like a TC of +1 in regular blackjack.

Also, these are for 2-card hands! e.g. 10,6 vs 10. If they are 4 card hands or higher, the EV's are completely different and your index would always be higher!

The row labels are the TC for HiLo, IRC = -32, 8D, S17, Sp21, where -4 is off the top, and you would raise your bet at -3, and have a max bet out around 0.

16v9:


16v10:


16vA:


15v10:


17v10:


17vA:
 

assume_R

Well-Known Member
#3
All Clear said:
I found a store which would allow me to get 54.5% back on a Spanish 21 (S17) surrender (as opposed to the standard 50%- I would be getting $3 back from a $5.50 bet).
...

(so I can see if it is below .545, and should therefore surrender instead), it would be appreciated. I have Katrina's book, but don't think this information is in there.
Just to reiterate - if you are getting 54.5% of your bet back, you are losing only 45.5%. So your surrender EV is -0.455 not -0.545.

If hitting or standing is -0.46 or lower (such as -0.48), it is better to surrender. Think about it and the way you stated what you said.

Also, to be Risk Averse, I might even surrender at -0.45 or -0.44 even though it might technically be better to either hit or stand. So for example, if hitting gives you -0.45, standing gives you -0.51, and surrender gives you -0.46, technically you should hit. But if you have a large bet out, and it's such a close call, I would surrender at that index.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#6

Betting an oddball amount just so that you can gain a few pennies of
theoretical .e.v is just idiotic and will only serve to alienate the pit.

Besides, surrender is not all that common in Span21.

There is only one hand that is a Basic Strategy Late Surrender.

That is
17 vs. Ace
 
#7
Thanks to assume R for the info. I know which surrenders to do at this point- the 16 vs 9,T,A hands. Much appreciated. :)

Flash- the HE at a typical SP21 S17 game is around .004. By betting $5.50 and getting $3 back on surrender, I decrease my variance (surrendering more often), decrease the house edge (by exactly what, I don't know, but anything is helpful), and do a "different" (as opposed to the standard hitting/standing/doubling/splitting) play every now and then, which makes the game more fun. A win/win/win.
 

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member
#8
All Clear,

I am sorry to burst your bubble but in dollars and cents, on any basis, [per hand, per 100 hands, per year, etc.] your gain is essentially nothing.

The notion that "every penny counts", or the equivalent thereof, is shortsighted.

You need to focus on the basics — improving your game selection, counting accuracy, bet sizing accuracy, playing accuracy, etc.

Think for a moment of what your average wager is and how many hands per hour you are playing,
and for how many hours you are playing. That figure is your "handle" — that is your aggregate bets.

IF you are earning an estimated 0.50%, or 1.0%, or whatever, you may realize that saving
a few nickels and dimes represents an increment of approximately zero.
 
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