% of time your account is at a new high

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#1
I believe it was Peter Griffin (not of Quohog) who said that your account will only be at a new all time high 2% of the time. I was curious about this and checked with my own solo account and it turns out my account has been at a new high 28% of the time. For those of you who keep detailed records of your playing what percent do you come in at?
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#2
SystemsTrader said:
I believe it was Peter Griffin (not of Quohog) who said that your account will only be at a new all time high 2% of the time. I was curious about this and checked with my own solo account and it turns out my account has been at a new high 28% of the time. For those of you who keep detailed records of your playing what percent do you come in at?
This seems like a difficult problem to define. What percentage of your actual life, measured in months and years? Or at what percentage of the breaks you take between playing?
 

SystemsTrader

Well-Known Member
#3
moo321 said:
This seems like a difficult problem to define. What percentage of your actual life, measured in months and years? Or at what percentage of the breaks you take between playing?
For me, most of my playing is done by hitting one store at a time. So I drive to the casino, play then go home and record that as one session. If I hit Vegas for a few days, I keep individual stats on each casino I hit but at the end of the trip I will consider that one big playing session. So I looked at all those playing sessions and 28% of the time my account hit new highs tracking all the money won and lost in those sessions.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
#4
SystemsTrader said:
For me, most of my playing is done by hitting one store at a time. So I drive to the casino, play then go home and record that as one session. If I hit Vegas for a few days, I keep individual stats on each casino I hit but at the end of the trip I will consider that one big playing session. So I looked at all those playing sessions and 28% of the time my account hit new highs tracking all the money won and lost in those sessions.
That sounds reasonable. The question then is, once I am done with a trip, what percentage of the time am I at a new all-time high?
 

ohbehave

Well-Known Member
#5
Great topic! I'm interested in seeing other responses.

39%... but my stat doesn't mean much because I only have 28 recorded sessions. My bankroll has reached a new high 11 times.
 

Mimosine

Well-Known Member
#7
SystemsTrader said:
I believe it was Peter Griffin (not of Quohog) who said that your account will only be at a new all time high 2% of the time. I was curious about this and checked with my own solo account and it turns out my account has been at a new high 28% of the time. For those of you who keep detailed records of your playing what percent do you come in at?
The actual quote is more along the lines that you will be below your max BR 98% or so of the time.

It is kind of a stupid idea. what does time mean in this case? time between session? What if you have a record score then don't play for 6 months. then you were at a high for at least 50% of the year!

When I look at my BR growth there are several peaks, followed by troughs, followed by new peaks, followed by troughs. while the overall trend of my BR is UP, most of the time I am not at a highpoint.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#8
Mimosine said:
The actual quote is more along the lines that you will be below your max BR 98% or so of the time...what does time mean in this case?
I think he meant that one's present hand has put one at a new high 2% of the time.

And that the other 98% of one's playing time is spent with a current roll lower than it was at sometime in the past.

I guess to make the point it could get pretty depressing always comparing one's present roll to one's all-time high roll because I guess it would seem you are losing 98% of the time if you did that lol.

I thought maybe it was closer to 1.5% than 2% but so what lol.

Although, if that is actually what he meant I don't know what would be so darn depressing playing 3 or 4 hands at a new all-time high every 200 hands or so on average. :confused: :grin:
 

gibsonlp33stl

Well-Known Member
#10
i think for statistic purposes he means all time high at the end of each hand. And he treats it as one long session. So as if you are continually playing, you'll be at all time high after 2% of hands. I would guess it goes in streaks, you hit an all time high, then the next 20-30 hands you go up and down and hit lots of highs....then you have a bad streak, and don't hit an all time high for 1000 or more hands.
 

Kasi

Well-Known Member
#11
blackjack avenger said:
Does one consider an all time high mid session or end of session? The issue would also be different for a resizer vs a fixed bettor.
Hey BA - how you've been?

All I was trying to say was what I thought Griffin meant when he said it.

That it only has to do with with the percentage of playing one's present hand at an all-time bankroll high compared to the percentage of all hands played that were at a point less than all-time roll high since the most recent point when an all-time had been achieved.

That, the way I understood it, which don't make it right lol, was that it had absolutely nothing to do with "sessions" per se.

If so, maybe it was to just make the general point one spends alot of time playing with a current roll that is less than one's previous all-time high roll.

I doubt if anyone actually would go to the trouble of measuring that which does make me wonder if I understood his point correctly in the first place lol.

I think, but don't know, whatever assumptions he may have been assuming when he said that, were probably based on betting the same way with no re-sizing. In other words I'm guessing at a point of re-sizing one would compare one's roll from that point forward with that re-sized bet and from that point forward his 1.5-2% statement would apply from that point forward since circumstances have changed.

It's easy enough to figure out the chances of having a "winning" session compared to roll at beginning of "session", such chances obviously increasing as "session" length (I'd much prefer number of rounds played) increases. Comparing that to an "all-time" high roll is way, way beyond me lol.

I really wouldn't give a crap about how many individual hands I had played at an "all-time-high" anyway. Like somebody said, it's stupid to worry about it in the first place , to me. I'd be completely happy reasonably knowing the liklelyhood of where my current results stand and could care less, as has maybe happened, that I may have achieved playing 100 hands at an "all-time high" at the beginning but 5000 hands later am down 3 SD's overall apparently proving how I understand his statement since I have actually played 2% of my total hands at an "all-time" high at that point lmao.

I won't care how many hands were played at an all-time high after I've quadrupled my orig roll and have a very high chance of having reached The Promised Land wherein life is sunshine and lollipops and roses (Leslie Gore song - that's how pathetic I am lmao) and I will win money forever.
 
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