Guys I would like to know the best course of action in the following scenario.
Suppose a counter sets up his betting schedule such that he is playing with a 5% RoR and 50 SC0RE employing a 1 to 20 bet spread with his minimum bet = table minimum. Let us also assume his style is play-all. After his first weekend to the casino, his BR incurs a 20% hit. Ideally, the counter would like to preserve his 5% RoR by resizing his unit downward but the problem is that if he does then his minimum bet would be below the table minimum. So what is the counter to do assuming he wants to continue with his play-all style?
I suppose he could decrease his bet spread sufficiently such that RoR is restored to 5%. But the problem with that is WR will be reduced accordingly and N0 increased. From that point on, either one of two things will happen:
1) He continues to lose in which case it was a good thing he reduced the spread. But how much can one decrease the spread before WR becomes too small and N0 too large? At what minimum point should the spread be frozen and whatever happens, happens?
2) He goes on a winning streak and does not restore the 1 to 20 spread until he wins back what he lost.
On the other hand, after that first disastrous trip he also has the option of leaving his spread intact and hoping that he wins back what he lost in the future. But, if he continues to lose then he will regret not having reduced his spread and RoR will continue to rise exponentially. Yikes!
Do you think the best way to handle this type of situation where your minimum bet = table minimum is to simply increase and decrease the bet spread after each session so that 5% RoR is preserved? Isn't this sort of like kelly wagering in that we are changing the betting ramp after each trip as the BR increases and shrinks with the only difference being that the minimum bet is fixed? I do realize that kelly wagering does not involve changing bet spread, but it is sort of similar in that by altering spread a certain RoR can be maintained.
MJ
Suppose a counter sets up his betting schedule such that he is playing with a 5% RoR and 50 SC0RE employing a 1 to 20 bet spread with his minimum bet = table minimum. Let us also assume his style is play-all. After his first weekend to the casino, his BR incurs a 20% hit. Ideally, the counter would like to preserve his 5% RoR by resizing his unit downward but the problem is that if he does then his minimum bet would be below the table minimum. So what is the counter to do assuming he wants to continue with his play-all style?
I suppose he could decrease his bet spread sufficiently such that RoR is restored to 5%. But the problem with that is WR will be reduced accordingly and N0 increased. From that point on, either one of two things will happen:
1) He continues to lose in which case it was a good thing he reduced the spread. But how much can one decrease the spread before WR becomes too small and N0 too large? At what minimum point should the spread be frozen and whatever happens, happens?
2) He goes on a winning streak and does not restore the 1 to 20 spread until he wins back what he lost.
On the other hand, after that first disastrous trip he also has the option of leaving his spread intact and hoping that he wins back what he lost in the future. But, if he continues to lose then he will regret not having reduced his spread and RoR will continue to rise exponentially. Yikes!
Do you think the best way to handle this type of situation where your minimum bet = table minimum is to simply increase and decrease the bet spread after each session so that 5% RoR is preserved? Isn't this sort of like kelly wagering in that we are changing the betting ramp after each trip as the BR increases and shrinks with the only difference being that the minimum bet is fixed? I do realize that kelly wagering does not involve changing bet spread, but it is sort of similar in that by altering spread a certain RoR can be maintained.
MJ