Bankroll Management: What if BR diminishes?

MJ1

Well-Known Member
#1
Guys I would like to know the best course of action in the following scenario.

Suppose a counter sets up his betting schedule such that he is playing with a 5% RoR and 50 SC0RE employing a 1 to 20 bet spread with his minimum bet = table minimum. Let us also assume his style is play-all. After his first weekend to the casino, his BR incurs a 20% hit. Ideally, the counter would like to preserve his 5% RoR by resizing his unit downward but the problem is that if he does then his minimum bet would be below the table minimum. So what is the counter to do assuming he wants to continue with his play-all style?

I suppose he could decrease his bet spread sufficiently such that RoR is restored to 5%. But the problem with that is WR will be reduced accordingly and N0 increased. From that point on, either one of two things will happen:

1) He continues to lose in which case it was a good thing he reduced the spread. But how much can one decrease the spread before WR becomes too small and N0 too large? At what minimum point should the spread be frozen and whatever happens, happens?

2) He goes on a winning streak and does not restore the 1 to 20 spread until he wins back what he lost.

On the other hand, after that first disastrous trip he also has the option of leaving his spread intact and hoping that he wins back what he lost in the future. But, if he continues to lose then he will regret not having reduced his spread and RoR will continue to rise exponentially. Yikes!

Do you think the best way to handle this type of situation where your minimum bet = table minimum is to simply increase and decrease the bet spread after each session so that 5% RoR is preserved? Isn't this sort of like kelly wagering in that we are changing the betting ramp after each trip as the BR increases and shrinks with the only difference being that the minimum bet is fixed? I do realize that kelly wagering does not involve changing bet spread, but it is sort of similar in that by altering spread a certain RoR can be maintained.

MJ
 
#3
This is interesting for a new guy like me... What I think is stick with the original strategy since statistically, you will most likely bounce back to your expected value or close with some variance. Changing your RoR to stay at 5% will take even longer to get back to breaking even. Though, if BJ were my only source of income I would change it to reduce the RoR, but also would start out with less than 5%.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#4
The correct decision is up to you. As you said, you can adjust your bet spread to preserve that 5% ROR but that will reduce your WR and it will take you longer to dig out of the hole. Instead you could keep using the same spread and try to get the money back sooner but you will be playing with a much higher ROR (there is no reason to expect your results to suddenly "bounce back"). Do you want to play slow and safely or quick and risky? It's your money and it's your call.

-Sonny-
 
#6
2 cents or 2% ror

I will try to add to what others have said.

One can change their betting ramp while employing Kelly; that is the whole idea, if you win you bet more and if you lose you bet less.

I think given your example you can decrease your bets and still be successful. However, once you start winning don't increase your bets for a while. Also, you can do something in the middle and only drop your bets around 10% even though you took a 20% loss. Unfortunately at some point if you keep losing it would be better to go down with the ship. One probably cannot win spreading 1-2 in a play all situation.:joker::whip:
 

bigplayer

Well-Known Member
#7
Bouncing Back

KJ89 said:
This is interesting for a new guy like me... What I think is stick with the original strategy since statistically, you will most likely bounce back to your expected value or close with some variance. Changing your RoR to stay at 5% will take even longer to get back to breaking even. Though, if BJ were my only source of income I would change it to reduce the RoR, but also would start out with less than 5%.
You're not any more likely to bounce back after a loss than you are likely to lose after a win. If you take an early beating you'll only begin to approach your long term expectation because your number of hours played gets very large making that initial loss seem relatively small in the overall scheme of things. Most successful players are successful because they had good luck early in their career or managed to have a casino offer an unbelievable promotion early on that they could take advantage of. For example many Southern players got their initial bankroll bump from green to black because of several casinos having 2:1 and even 3:1 payoffs on blackjacks. Many players who are otherwise very strong and ballsy players have bad luck early on, tap out, and move onto other things.

5% Risk of ruin is a 1 in 20 chance...hope your bankroll is not irreplaceable.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#8
If your BR can't afford to stand the table minimums then your best course of action is backcounting; if it's allowed. If not, find another casino. Adjusting your UPPER bet size downward is ALWAYS counterproductive. Remember, when counting cards; the secret to success is: BET SPREAD!
 
Top