Betting strategy

#1
Hey guys,

Anyone here familiar with blackjack mathematics? I came across a series of threads at another forum where a guy is trying to convince people that he's developed a better betting method than basic strategy. I haven't cracked open a math book in a decade but to me his system looks like a just a no-bust martingale variation that should have a much lower expected value over basic strategy.

This is his system:

"I recommend ignoring this if you really want to win at blackjack. There is a reason that the casino will hand you that chart and wants most players to play that way and that is because it makes the house the favorite.

Blackjack is a game I have won far more money at then I have ever lost and I have invented my own system. The only downside to my system is that other players will hate you for not playing to the same playbook they play by. The last time I played I was winning huge but had 3 players verbally abusing attacking me until the dealer said "give the guy a break...he is winning." Also you need to have about $300 to lose to play this way.

Anyway I will for the first time detail my black jack system here.

IT is simple really. Mathematically speaking the dealer is going to bust (get more then 21) every X hands. This is fact. In my experience that number is about 4-6 hands although I have counted a dealer going as many as 11 without a single bust (except they busted me).

So in my system you are playing the bust....not your hand...and not the dealers hand. That means you NEVER bust yourself, ever. I don't care if you are showing 12 and the dealer a 10 you do not hit and bust yourself because that might be your one bust the dealer was going to give you that series.

In my system I will sit out hands while holding my spot until the dealer goes 3 hands in a row without busting. Sometime I sit up to 8 or more hands but thta is rare. Then I will bet the table minimum ($10). If the dealer does not bust and beats my hand then I double my bet ($20) and if I win I am up $10. If the dealer again does not bust and beats my hand then again I double ($40) and so on. I have five straight bets I can make or 8 hands where I am counting on him busting.

I am betting that the dealer will ust once during the 8 hands (remember I waited until he went 3-no-bust). As soon as the dealer busts I go back to sitting out to start all over again.

NOw how I make big money in this system is when the dealer does not bust but I beat their hand outright. I still ramp up my bet expecting a bust to come very soon. I can double and triple my stack on these wins.

Personally I can never understand how people can walk into the ediface that is a casino and realize that it is built with gamblers money and then play off the sheet the casino gives you to play by.

Do yourself a favour and stand and watch and count how many hands it takes a dealer to go bust and what is his longest streak without busting. I doubt you will ever see him go more then 8 straight with no bust unless you watch hours and hours of Blackjack. Hopefully if you play you will not hit his hot streak and you can get in and out with a Mitt full dough by playing the bust."

The thread is here:

(Dead link: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/vine/showpost.php?p=7562360&postcount=49)

but the discussion continues here after Cuepee was banned and returned as QP:

(Dead link: http://www.rottentomatoes.com/vine/showthread.php?t=2267387&page=7)

If anybody is up to it can they analyze his system here so as not to get mixed up in the mess that most QP threads turn into over at rottentomatoes.

Edited to fix links...
 
#2
First he is not going to have an advantage unless he makes higher bets when he has an advantage.(Why does this seem like ground hog day)

Totalwin = totalwinlL1 + total winL2 + totalwinL3 + totalwinL4 + totalwinL5

Each totalwinLx = frequency each bet is made * bet size * player edge

Let frequency of bet x = Fx

Player edge = -5% = -0.05 for no bust, probably even worse

Since there was no attempt to correlate bet size to any change in player advantage all bet levels have this house edge.

Totalwin = F1*10*(-0.05) + F2*20*(-0.05) + F3*40*(-0.05) + F4*80*(-0.05) + F5*160*(-0.05)
Totalwin = -0.5*F1 + -1*F2 + -2*F3 + -4*F4 + -8*F5

Notice all bet frequencies are between 0 and 1(0% and 100%)
A negative number times a positive number equals a negative number

Since all frequencies are non negative each of the 5 products in the equation are negative

Totalwin = a negative + a negative + a negative + a negative + a negative = a negative number

Note 1) His wait 3 dealer no bust just means he makes fewer bets not that any are more likely to win. The cards dont know who busted in the last 3 hands so it has no significant affect on the outcome of the next 5 hands.

2) If the dealer isnt busting he may be using up low cards this makes him slightly more likely to bust. This affect is so small it could be ignored. But if he played basic strategy he would only need to move the house edge a fraction of a percent. This would not move it that much but the house edge in his no bust strategy is between 5% and 8%. The fact that the dealer ate up a few more low cards would move the house edge less than 0.01% on average.
 
#3
Thanks for the reply tthree,

Where would you find the mathematical proof that no bust players give up a 5 to 8 percent edge to the house?
 
#4
Allen112 said:
Thanks for the reply tthree,

Where would you find the mathematical proof that no bust players give up a 5 to 8 percent edge to the house?
I just ran a search and found it on blackjack info.net. I was only double checking I remembered it as 5%. These things are usually determined through computer simulation of millions and millions of hands.
 
#5
OK thanks bud,

I'll look through that site. I fixed the links in the first post and if you're curious to see what might be the most stubborn gambler on the planet then browse two of the most headache inducing arguments I've ever encountered.
 
#6
Check out the Gamblers Fallacy sticky thread

I read a tiny bit into the thread if you are buying the number is due idea they have a great sticky thread on this site called the Gamblers Fallacy. Check it out its a great thread. Everyone seems to get it after reading it.
 

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
#7
i might raise a few eyebrows here but i have a few comments on the dude's system

1) why is that dude posting at rotten tomatoes? a movie website? hmm
2) the dude is right in that a dealer will bust on average, 23% of the time
3) the system as a whole is wrong. but it has some kind of validity if you take the following assumptions:

3 hands with no dealer bust will mean that there has not been a BIG+ LITTLE+BIG card for the dealer. yes i realize that a dealer can bust with LITTLE+LITTLE+LITTLE+LITTLE+BIG, but for now lets assume BIG LITTLE BIG = dealer bust.

using a very rough hi-lo this could be a very weak indicator that the deck will be richer in big cards after the event of dealer not busting 3 hands in a row.

what i don't agree with in the dude's post is that you should double your bet after loss. martingaling is a very quick way to go bust because the variance is just way too big. you should only bet amounts proportional to your edge and bankroll (kelly sizing) and martingaling very quickly digs you into a hole where you are overbetting drastically and your ROR gets very high.

my verdict is yes, the strategy is "voodoo" but not beyond the point of repair. with some adjustments to the betramp, id teach it to my ploppy grandma so she doesn't lose more than $x at a casino, but still has a chance to win.
 

Midwestern

Well-Known Member
#8
tthree said:
I just ran a search and found it on blackjack info.net. I was only double checking I remembered it as 5%. These things are usually determined through computer simulation of millions and millions of hands.
this betting system conditionally plays hands on favorability to the player (a very weak wong) ... the 5% House edge number is a "play all" calculation. so i'm not sure if the calculation applies here
 

MangoJ

Well-Known Member
#9
You should tell your "friend" that he is even doing worse than pure martingale.
With proper basic strategy the house has an 0.5% advantage over you.
That means the house - on average - keeps 0.5% of the amount you place in the betting circle every time.

Playing the "no bust"-strategy (i.e. stand on all hard 12 or above) gives the house (as mentioned above) more than 5% advantage.


Your friend should understand two things:
Past performance is no indicator of future performance in a game of chance. Luckily blackjack is not strictly a game of chance. However the style of your friends play doesn't exploit the strategy element properly. Waiting "3 hands where the dealer doesn't bust" is worthless, it has no influence on the next hand (if you don't give attention to the proper details).
House advantage is independent of bet size. The game will not be different just because your friend raised your bet (unless you are out of money and cannot double or split your hand).


If your friend must play this strategy afterwards: Tell him to wait for the dealer to not bust his hands 20 times a row before going in. That will reduce the "opportunities" he will get in, and prevent him from losing his money.
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#10
Allen112 said:
Do yourself a favour and stand and watch and count how many hands it takes a dealer to go bust and what is his longest streak without busting. I doubt you will ever see him go more then 8 straight with no bust unless you watch hours and hours of Blackjack..
What magical table is he watching? Holy crap I wish this was true.
 
#11
your sistem is more like a e-book i just bought a couple of weeks ago ..
in this book the author a retaired ex pro blackjack player explained how you can make a few money with " The blackjack betting trigger " by just counting the numbers of time the dealer didnt bust and betting properly .
 
#12
Retired or retarded?

Mladonna said:
your sistem is more like a e-book i just bought a couple of weeks ago ..
in this book the author a retaired ex pro blackjack player explained how you can make a few money with " The blackjack betting trigger " by just counting the numbers of time the dealer didnt bust and betting properly .
With that sort of thinking and strategy it's easy to see why he is an EX pro blackjack player. It's because he went broke! I hope you didn't pay too much for this Ebook... there are indeed blackjack "betting triggers" but it has nothing to do with the number of times the dealer busted versus the number of times he didn't. Just when I thought I had "heard it all"...

Be wary of garbage, scams, easy money systems that require no counting or effort and people claiming to have come upon some means of beating the casinos in some simple fashion that's so easy a monkey could do it, yours for the low low price of $____!!! If their amazing system is so great then why are they making this amazing "cash cow" available to the general public and risking blowing all that money-making potential for themselves? I'll tell you how! Because things such as this are a dime a dozen and they are all garbage.

The original poster's "system"? I have seen people use that one (or something similar to it) in the casino... by people who appeared to be smart enough to know better, amazingly enough! No... it doesn't work and this is why casinos love people that have a "system".
 
#14
Tarzan said:
With that sort of thinking and strategy it's easy to see why he is an EX pro blackjack player. It's because he went broke! I hope you didn't pay too much for this Ebook... there are indeed blackjack "betting triggers" but it has nothing to do with the number of times the dealer busted versus the number of times he didn't. Just when I thought I had "heard it all"...

Be wary of garbage, scams, easy money systems that require no counting or effort and people claiming to have come upon some means of beating the casinos in some simple fashion that's so easy a monkey could do it, yours for the low low price of $____!!! If their amazing system is so great then why are they making this amazing "cash cow" available to the general public and risking blowing all that money-making potential for themselves? I'll tell you how! Because things such as this are a dime a dozen and they are all garbage.

The original poster's "system"? I have seen people use that one (or something similar to it) in the casino... by people who appeared to be smart enough to know better, amazingly enough! No... it doesn't work and this is why casinos love people that have a "system".

ok thanks for advice paid only 15$ for e-book . i wil make a thread and ask from now on if is worth buying a certain book before im going to buy it . thanks again :)
 
#15
If you loss money in the casino consistently the best way to make money in the gambling industry is to sell books or systems or teach classes so others can share your lack of success but now you might show a profit.
 
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