Deck estimation

Xenophon

Well-Known Member
#1
I'm using Hi-Lo lite, dividing by half decks remaining to convert to the true count.

When playing a six deck shoe during the first 3 decks I don't bother trying half deck accuracy; ie, I just divide by double the whole number of decks remaining or 12, 10, 8, 6 during the first 3 decks. When 3.5 decks have been played I then revert to half deck accuracy, dividing by 5, 4, 3, and possibly getting to 2 if only one deck is cut off.

An observation I've made is that (with the retired casino cards I'm using to practice) is that they get fluffy to where each deck expands about 1/8" after being used for a while. Does anyone try to compensate for this when converting to the true count?

Another observation is that 3.5 decks is about a quarter deck less than the width of my practice cards. 4 decks is about a quarter deck higher than the width my practice cards. 5 decks is about a quarter deck less than the height of my practice cards. In other words the stack would be about "square" when 5 decks have been played. Does anyone know if this is roughly close enough for any card manufacturer?

Has anyone else noticed this and used it to help estimate the dealt decks? Using the width and height of the cards as a measuring stick to estimate decks played?

Comments?
 
#2
I have also noticed this and used this method at first to get the hang of it. I also calibrate my estimation when the cut card comes out. I'm not great at deck estimation, but I think good enough to play with an advantage down to a 1/2 deck resolution on shoes.
 

Zach Black

Active Member
#3
I've noticed in a pitch 2D game that the cards can get much thicker. The moisture in people's hands gets absorbed into the cards. Somtimes to the point that 2 decks looks like 2 1/3 decks. So I try to re-calibrate during the cut at each table. I think this vaires with the quality of the cards purchased by the casino and of course the duration between card change out.
 

bejammin075

Active Member
#4
Also: discard pile vs. remaining in shoe

I was thinking about posting a thread on this. Let's say you are playing a shoe game, and getting towards the end. This is the time that accuracy is more important, yet at the same time, your "resolution" is getting worse, because the discard pile is getting higher and higher. I was wondering how much people use the shoe to estimate how many cards remain? Since the cards are slanted, that makes it different than when they are sitting flat. A question I have, are those slant angles always the same from one brand of shoe to the next? I'm thinking of buying some shoes and discard trays on ebay or wherever so I can have some at home to stare at. Estimating how many decks are left by looking at the slanted cards in the shoe seems like it would be more worthwhile if they are always at a consistent angle. Are they? Anybody know? Maybe the optimal thing is to use the discard pile at the beginning of the shoe, and use the shoe itself towards the end?
 
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