So I've started to get direct bets (free bets offered by the casino) and match plays (where I have to put up half of the wager, to win the full amount) a lot more, and I have a question about them. Let's say I put them on the pass line, which has a 1.4% house edge.
So let's say I have a $30 direct bet. That is essentially (1 - .014) * $30 = $29.58 as positive EV, right? A $30 match play (+$60 if I win, -$30 if I lose) would be (1 - .014) * $60 - $30 = $29.16 as positive EV, right?
My real question is if I should also put up my own money on the odds bet. In the positive, if they offer 10x odds, I can reduce the house edge from 1.4% to .18%. But now I have 10x the free money of my own at risk. So my EV changes to (1 - .0018) * $30 = $29.95 but I also have higher variance because I have $300 swings of my own money. Without the odds bet, the coupons can't possibly increase my RoR, but with my own money on the line it can in fact increase my RoR. So if that $300, for example, is a significant part of my bankroll, kelly theory would probably say not to take the odds bet. But if that $300 isn't a significant part of my bankroll, and I can weather that variance, I probably should play the odds bet. At what point does it become worth it to reduce the house edge?
And as an aside, yes I know the craps pass line isn't necessarily the best bet to play a match play or comp coupon, but let's just entertain this for the sake of the thread
So let's say I have a $30 direct bet. That is essentially (1 - .014) * $30 = $29.58 as positive EV, right? A $30 match play (+$60 if I win, -$30 if I lose) would be (1 - .014) * $60 - $30 = $29.16 as positive EV, right?
My real question is if I should also put up my own money on the odds bet. In the positive, if they offer 10x odds, I can reduce the house edge from 1.4% to .18%. But now I have 10x the free money of my own at risk. So my EV changes to (1 - .0018) * $30 = $29.95 but I also have higher variance because I have $300 swings of my own money. Without the odds bet, the coupons can't possibly increase my RoR, but with my own money on the line it can in fact increase my RoR. So if that $300, for example, is a significant part of my bankroll, kelly theory would probably say not to take the odds bet. But if that $300 isn't a significant part of my bankroll, and I can weather that variance, I probably should play the odds bet. At what point does it become worth it to reduce the house edge?
And as an aside, yes I know the craps pass line isn't necessarily the best bet to play a match play or comp coupon, but let's just entertain this for the sake of the thread