A method to always capture hot streaks

aslan

Well-Known Member
#1
I was talking with an experience gambler and he clued me in on an obvious method that I had thus far never considered. His method ensures that he is always in on hot streaks. In games like baccarat, craps and roulette where you can bet either side (banc vs. player, house vs. player, red vs. black), all you have to do is change sides whenever the other side wins. This does not guarantee you will win, by no means, but it does ensure that if a hot winning streak appears, you will be the benificiary.

Of course, you have to have a strategy for playing it. If you keep parlaying your money, you will eventually lose everything. What this gambler does is parlay the first win, then if you win again, withdraw your initial bet, and parlay the rest. If you win, parlay again, and then one more time. So, if you start with $50, you would then bet $100. If you win again, your would withdraw $50 and bet the remaining $150. If you win again ($300), you would bet the entire $300. If you win the $300 (you now have won $600 total), you would then retreat to something less, say, your original bet of $50, or maybe a higher starting bet of $100. You then execute the same parlaying procedure. Heck! If you one day ran into a huge winning streak, you'd really have something to crow about. Just think how many people have hot streaks, but because they play them wrong, they never reap the benefits.
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
#2
Sure, but switch to the "winning" side is going to be wrong just over half the time. Not only that, but about the same fraction you have the winning streaks, you're going to have "inverse streaks" where you continually are shifting your bets to whichever side will lose. And finally, you're going to find yourself increasing a bet just in time for a losing hand about half the time.

Winning streaks are really fun, I just wouldn't expect this method to make you any particular money. If what gets your particular rocks off is REALLY BIG winning streaks, then this might be a more mellow way to approach it instead of a more aggressive positive progression. No change to the house edge though.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#3
EasyRhino said:
Sure, but switch to the "winning" side is going to be wrong just over half the time. Not only that, but about the same fraction you have the winning streaks, you're going to have "inverse streaks" where you continually are shifting your bets to whichever side will lose. And finally, you're going to find yourself increasing a bet just in time for a losing hand about half the time.

Winning streaks are really fun, I just wouldn't expect this method to make you any particular money. If what gets your particular rocks off is REALLY BIG winning streaks, then this might be a more mellow way to approach it instead of a more aggressive positive progression. No change to the house edge though.
Everything you said is true. The issue came up when I recounted to my friend that the first time out playing Baccarat I lost twenty straight hands. He came back at me with this simple system. Of course, it is still possible to lose twenty times straight with this system as well. But I guess it is just not as apparent. One doesn't usually think of a winning (or losing streak) as, in the case of roulette, red wins, black wins, red wins, black wins, etc. It's usually thought of in terms of red wins, red wins, red wins, etc. But I can see there is really no difference in the final analysis. In point of fact, the only thing he was advising was to parlay winnings 3 times, then regroup, something I think a lot of craps players do, although giving one no real advantage--just a nice win now and then between cumulatively larger losses.
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#6
GeorgeD said:
Right, you must switch to the dark side and control the dice, wheel cards, etc to your benefit. (only those on the dark side use the force to their benefit).

Asian needs to read this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy
Yup! I've read it before more than once. Sometimes the way the gambit is twisted, one may not see it as the "same ole same ole." I must admit, and I didn't really reflect on it all that much, that at first I thought this fella had a valid point. I'll just consign it to file 13 with all the other garbage that "experienced" gamblers have told me in the past.

Got to go now...it's time to place a hefty bet on the wheel...and black is long overdue! :grin:
 

aslan

Well-Known Member
#8
Machine fallacy

sagefr0g said:
is there supposed to be an article about the gamblers fallacy?
i just checked the link and there is nothing there. :confused:
Must be a fallacy in your machine. I clicked it and it is a valid link.:confused:
 
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