Some of you may have seen my first post about how I started counting. I practiced a bit and hit the ground running in Vegas. Not knowing much, I played double deck SF21 at Hooters. Was spreading $5-$120. 6-8 hours later and $1000 in positive variance later, I was politely backed off. The heat was rising and I would have known to get out earlier had I been more experienced, but it was a great way to learn. I have not had a back off since. That trip I made $2000 playing a game that was probably slightly better than break even. I look at some of my early posts now and feel stupid, but I guess that just means I learned a lot.
After that trip I read a lot more and learned pretty fast. I took my $2000 in winnings, plus the $1000 I had brought on that trip expecting to lose and formed a $3000 bankroll. This money was just for AP. I don’t take money out for gas/food/anything. Started counting 6 deck games at my local casino spreading $5-$60, then $80 and ended the year with about $4500! My warm streak continued into the new year. I had lots of uneventful sessions winning pretty close to my expected value each time. During my good streak I played a lot! I never lost more than $600, never won more than $1200. My bankroll grew weekly, I slowly raised my top bet.
It was about January when I decided to learn some new skills and found the process to be very difficult but worthwhile. People were certainly not willing to give up much for free, although some members here did point me in the right direction which was very much appreciated. I eventually took some steps to learn some things myself. A friend of mine wrote a computer program to analyze a strong game we had been playing. He works in computer science and has a gambling and math background. I can’t think of a better person to do this type of work, and feel very lucky to know him. We are in the process of running simulations now and are getting some information that I believe only a handful of people in the history of the world have ever had. It is a cool feeling, I think even the wizard of odds would be impressed with his work! I am currently sworn to silence as far as sharing this information, but I will talk to my buddy and see if he is comfortable with me bringing some things to BASH! I am looking forward to meeting people, networking, learning, and hopefully adding something to the discussion.
After learning these higher edge plays I started to experience huge swings. This is to be expected since Kelly required me to bet more in good situations, but it seemed like even when I just played blackjack the swings were much bigger then they had been. Had some great weeks and a few down weeks. Hit my high point a couple months ago at $18,000. Then I learned about negative variance. I was betting a lot, between half and full Kelly in higher edge situations and caught a bad run of cards. A couple weeks in a row I lost 20% of my BR. My low point(after hitting my high) was about $10,500. The last month I have been doing ok again. I currently sit at about $13,500. My hourly rate is pretty low. I would estimate I have put in 600-800 hours but haven’t keep track very well (probably only about 100 hrs of high edge play). I believe my hourly rate will improve as I continue to improve and (hopefully) increase my bank. I also am pretty sure I have just run cold recently. I am confident in my counting, have become a pretty competent HCer, and have a few other tricks up my sleeves that I am sure other people do, but I basically “discovered” myself. I have noticed a few really cool things at my home casino that I should be able to exploit over the next couple months. I have over a dozen good dealers written up in my “book” now, it really pays to scout your home base. I hope to return back to the fun times of all-time-highs each week soon. I plan to continue to bet between half and full Kelly, so it will be a wild ride! If I reach $20,000 and beyond I plan to bet smaller Kelly fractions, but for now I am happy with the risk/reward. I will keep those of you who are interested posted on my progress. I recently got an Internet phone, so if you want to get PMs while I wong out let me know!
Thanks for reading!
-Apex
After that trip I read a lot more and learned pretty fast. I took my $2000 in winnings, plus the $1000 I had brought on that trip expecting to lose and formed a $3000 bankroll. This money was just for AP. I don’t take money out for gas/food/anything. Started counting 6 deck games at my local casino spreading $5-$60, then $80 and ended the year with about $4500! My warm streak continued into the new year. I had lots of uneventful sessions winning pretty close to my expected value each time. During my good streak I played a lot! I never lost more than $600, never won more than $1200. My bankroll grew weekly, I slowly raised my top bet.
It was about January when I decided to learn some new skills and found the process to be very difficult but worthwhile. People were certainly not willing to give up much for free, although some members here did point me in the right direction which was very much appreciated. I eventually took some steps to learn some things myself. A friend of mine wrote a computer program to analyze a strong game we had been playing. He works in computer science and has a gambling and math background. I can’t think of a better person to do this type of work, and feel very lucky to know him. We are in the process of running simulations now and are getting some information that I believe only a handful of people in the history of the world have ever had. It is a cool feeling, I think even the wizard of odds would be impressed with his work! I am currently sworn to silence as far as sharing this information, but I will talk to my buddy and see if he is comfortable with me bringing some things to BASH! I am looking forward to meeting people, networking, learning, and hopefully adding something to the discussion.
After learning these higher edge plays I started to experience huge swings. This is to be expected since Kelly required me to bet more in good situations, but it seemed like even when I just played blackjack the swings were much bigger then they had been. Had some great weeks and a few down weeks. Hit my high point a couple months ago at $18,000. Then I learned about negative variance. I was betting a lot, between half and full Kelly in higher edge situations and caught a bad run of cards. A couple weeks in a row I lost 20% of my BR. My low point(after hitting my high) was about $10,500. The last month I have been doing ok again. I currently sit at about $13,500. My hourly rate is pretty low. I would estimate I have put in 600-800 hours but haven’t keep track very well (probably only about 100 hrs of high edge play). I believe my hourly rate will improve as I continue to improve and (hopefully) increase my bank. I also am pretty sure I have just run cold recently. I am confident in my counting, have become a pretty competent HCer, and have a few other tricks up my sleeves that I am sure other people do, but I basically “discovered” myself. I have noticed a few really cool things at my home casino that I should be able to exploit over the next couple months. I have over a dozen good dealers written up in my “book” now, it really pays to scout your home base. I hope to return back to the fun times of all-time-highs each week soon. I plan to continue to bet between half and full Kelly, so it will be a wild ride! If I reach $20,000 and beyond I plan to bet smaller Kelly fractions, but for now I am happy with the risk/reward. I will keep those of you who are interested posted on my progress. I recently got an Internet phone, so if you want to get PMs while I wong out let me know!
Thanks for reading!
-Apex