6 Months of Apex

apex

Well-Known Member
#1
Some of you may have seen my first post about how I started counting. I practiced a bit and hit the ground running in Vegas. Not knowing much, I played double deck SF21 at Hooters. Was spreading $5-$120. 6-8 hours later and $1000 in positive variance later, I was politely backed off. The heat was rising and I would have known to get out earlier had I been more experienced, but it was a great way to learn. I have not had a back off since. That trip I made $2000 playing a game that was probably slightly better than break even. I look at some of my early posts now and feel stupid, but I guess that just means I learned a lot.

After that trip I read a lot more and learned pretty fast. I took my $2000 in winnings, plus the $1000 I had brought on that trip expecting to lose and formed a $3000 bankroll. This money was just for AP. I don’t take money out for gas/food/anything. Started counting 6 deck games at my local casino spreading $5-$60, then $80 and ended the year with about $4500! My warm streak continued into the new year. I had lots of uneventful sessions winning pretty close to my expected value each time. During my good streak I played a lot! I never lost more than $600, never won more than $1200. My bankroll grew weekly, I slowly raised my top bet.

It was about January when I decided to learn some new skills and found the process to be very difficult but worthwhile. People were certainly not willing to give up much for free, although some members here did point me in the right direction which was very much appreciated. I eventually took some steps to learn some things myself. A friend of mine wrote a computer program to analyze a strong game we had been playing. He works in computer science and has a gambling and math background. I can’t think of a better person to do this type of work, and feel very lucky to know him. We are in the process of running simulations now and are getting some information that I believe only a handful of people in the history of the world have ever had. It is a cool feeling, I think even the wizard of odds would be impressed with his work! I am currently sworn to silence as far as sharing this information, but I will talk to my buddy and see if he is comfortable with me bringing some things to BASH! I am looking forward to meeting people, networking, learning, and hopefully adding something to the discussion.

After learning these higher edge plays I started to experience huge swings. This is to be expected since Kelly required me to bet more in good situations, but it seemed like even when I just played blackjack the swings were much bigger then they had been. Had some great weeks and a few down weeks. Hit my high point a couple months ago at $18,000. Then I learned about negative variance. I was betting a lot, between half and full Kelly in higher edge situations and caught a bad run of cards. A couple weeks in a row I lost 20% of my BR. My low point(after hitting my high) was about $10,500. The last month I have been doing ok again. I currently sit at about $13,500. My hourly rate is pretty low. I would estimate I have put in 600-800 hours but haven’t keep track very well (probably only about 100 hrs of high edge play). I believe my hourly rate will improve as I continue to improve and (hopefully) increase my bank. I also am pretty sure I have just run cold recently. I am confident in my counting, have become a pretty competent HCer, and have a few other tricks up my sleeves that I am sure other people do, but I basically “discovered” myself. I have noticed a few really cool things at my home casino that I should be able to exploit over the next couple months. I have over a dozen good dealers written up in my “book” now, it really pays to scout your home base. I hope to return back to the fun times of all-time-highs each week soon. I plan to continue to bet between half and full Kelly, so it will be a wild ride! If I reach $20,000 and beyond I plan to bet smaller Kelly fractions, but for now I am happy with the risk/reward. I will keep those of you who are interested posted on my progress. I recently got an Internet phone, so if you want to get PMs while I wong out let me know!

Thanks for reading!

-Apex
 

swamper

Well-Known Member
#2
Thanks for sharing APEX. I really enjoying hearing about others journey's. It sounds pretty darn exciting what you have going on.
 
#3
Apex-BASH

apex said:
Some of you may have seen my first post about how I started counting. I practiced a bit and hit the ground running in Vegas. Not knowing much, I played double deck SF21 at Hooters. Was spreading $5-$120. 6-8 hours later and $1000 in positive variance later, I was politely backed off. The heat was rising and I would have known to get out earlier had I been more experienced, but it was a great way to learn. I have not had a back off since. That trip I made $2000 playing a game that was probably slightly better than break even. I look at some of my early posts now and feel stupid, but I guess that just means I learned a lot.

After that trip I read a lot more and learned pretty fast. I took my $2000 in winnings, plus the $1000 I had brought on that trip expecting to lose and formed a $3000 bankroll. This money was just for AP. I don’t take money out for gas/food/anything. Started counting 6 deck games at my local casino spreading $5-$60, then $80 and ended the year with about $4500! My warm streak continued into the new year. I had lots of uneventful sessions winning pretty close to my expected value each time. During my good streak I played a lot! I never lost more than $600, never won more than $1200. My bankroll grew weekly, I slowly raised my top bet.

It was about January when I decided to learn some new skills and found the process to be very difficult but worthwhile. People were certainly not willing to give up much for free, although some members here did point me in the right direction which was very much appreciated. I eventually took some steps to learn some things myself. A friend of mine wrote a computer program to analyze a strong game we had been playing. He works in computer science and has a gambling and math background. I can’t think of a better person to do this type of work, and feel very lucky to know him. We are in the process of running simulations now and are getting some information that I believe only a handful of people in the history of the world have ever had. It is a cool feeling, I think even the wizard of odds would be impressed with his work! I am currently sworn to silence as far as sharing this information, but I will talk to my buddy and see if he is comfortable with me bringing some things to BASH! I am looking forward to meeting people, networking, learning, and hopefully adding something to the discussion.

After learning these higher edge plays I started to experience huge swings. This is to be expected since Kelly required me to bet more in good situations, but it seemed like even when I just played blackjack the swings were much bigger then they had been. Had some great weeks and a few down weeks. Hit my high point a couple months ago at $18,000. Then I learned about negative variance. I was betting a lot, between half and full Kelly in higher edge situations and caught a bad run of cards. A couple weeks in a row I lost 20% of my BR. My low point(after hitting my high) was about $10,500. The last month I have been doing ok again. I currently sit at about $13,500. My hourly rate is pretty low. I would estimate I have put in 600-800 hours but haven’t keep track very well (probably only about 100 hrs of high edge play). I believe my hourly rate will improve as I continue to improve and (hopefully) increase my bank. I also am pretty sure I have just run cold recently. I am confident in my counting, have become a pretty competent HCer, and have a few other tricks up my sleeves that I am sure other people do, but I basically “discovered” myself. I have noticed a few really cool things at my home casino that I should be able to exploit over the next couple months. I have over a dozen good dealers written up in my “book” now, it really pays to scout your home base. I hope to return back to the fun times of all-time-highs each week soon. I plan to continue to bet between half and full Kelly, so it will be a wild ride! If I reach $20,000 and beyond I plan to bet smaller Kelly fractions, but for now I am happy with the risk/reward. I will keep those of you who are interested posted on my progress. I recently got an Internet phone, so if you want to get PMs while I wong out let me know!

Thanks for reading!

-Apex
We will for sure look forward to meeting you and all sharing our experiences, as well as playing a very fine game!:cool::):grin::toast::celebrate

CP
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#4
apex said:
I am currently sworn to silence as far as sharing this information, but I will talk to my buddy and see if he is comfortable with me bringing some things to BASH! I am looking forward to meeting people, networking, learning, and hopefully adding something to the discussion.
Your friend sounds like a very smart person. You have very little to gain by giving up ANY secrets. You have EVERYTHING to lose. Remember this: Once you tell a secret, you can't UN-tell it.
 
#7
alwayssplitaces said:
$1000 is way too little for a bankroll. I can lose that much with a few max bets. You just got lucky and that helped you out a lot.
But isn't that how it starts out for those who make it long term? Doesn't it take a little early luck to stay in the game and build up?
 

Dyepaintball12

Well-Known Member
#8
chknjetski said:
But isn't that how it starts out for those who make it long term? Doesn't it take a little early luck to stay in the game and build up?
I would think most people start off with a proper bank!

But nice post man - glad to see you're doing well and I'll see ya at the Bash!

- Dye
 

apex

Well-Known Member
#9
alwayssplitaces said:
$1000 is way too little for a bankroll. I can lose that much with a few max bets. You just got lucky and that helped you out a lot.
If you want to give card counting a try, you can do it with any ammount of money. I consider it gambling with an edge (until you get to a "proper" bankroll) which is an excellent thing for gamblers to try.

I wouldn't say I started AP with a $1000 bankroll. I was a gambler on a trip to Vegas planning to lose about $1000. The previous 3 trips I had lost about $1500 on average. This trip I was playing with a huge ROR and was lucky to win, but I do think card counting had something to do with it.

What was truly lucky was that my "lucky" trip coincided with when I started learning to count. This caused me to become more interested, practice, and put in some real time at the tables. This may not be how most people get started, but I wouldn't be supprised if others had similar starts.

Sucker - Good advice. I am hoping my friend and I will agree to share a simple basic strategy(3 rules) with anyone I consider to be a friend/AP acquaintance but maybe even that is being too nice. I am also hoping to maybe trade the full info for something really cool I don't even know about yet, but for now it's on lock down.

CP and Dye, Looking forward to it!
 

apex

Well-Known Member
#10
Taking a break from BJI

Well, this site has officially become the new facebook for me. I have spent most of this morning lurking and doing some posting. This is unacceptable! It is now busy season and I need to be working. I am hoping to Wong out of the BJI conversation until about November when things slow down. I will allow myself one post after bash, and I will still respond to PMs. Please feel free to make fun of me if I continue to post between now and then. I need the threat of internet humiliation to help me break this addiction cold turkey. Now it's off to work I go.

Thank you,

-Apex
 

Tree

Well-Known Member
#11
apex said:
Well, this site has officially become the new facebook for me. I have spent most of this morning lurking and doing some posting. This is unacceptable! It is now busy season and I need to be working. I am hoping to Wong out of the BJI conversation until about November when things slow down. I will allow myself one post after bash, and I will still respond to PMs. Please feel free to make fun of me if I continue to post between now and then. I need the threat of internet humiliation to help me break this addiction cold turkey. Now it's off to work I go.

Thank you,

-Apex
Your story is inspirational, if not a tease since I'm currently stuck working nights in the middle of nowhere in northern Alberta :p

Also, I agree with the Facebook remark...this site has robbed me of some valuable coding time these last two days.
 

Severity8

Well-Known Member
#12
apex said:
well, this site has officially become the new facebook for me. I have spent most of this morning lurking and doing some posting. This is unacceptable! It is now busy season and i need to be working. I am hoping to wong out of the bji conversation until about november when things slow down. I will allow myself one post after bash, and i will still respond to pms. Please feel free to make fun of me if i continue to post between now and then. I need the threat of internet humiliation to help me break this addiction cold turkey. Now it's off to work i go.

Thank you,

-apex
x2
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#14
Dyepaintball12 said:
I would think most people start off with a proper bank!

- Dye
Disagree with this one big time Mr Dye. I know from my own experience I was very underfunded at the beginning. I just didn't realize it at the time. :eek: I think quite a few players fall into this catagory. Even for a red chipper, a proper bank is thoudands of dollars. Many new players are young and that is a lot of money. Even if you are not young that is a lot of money to throw at a new 'venture'. More than most are comfortable with, or in some cases more than their spouses or partners are confortable with. :laugh:

I am sure I have read at least a couple places that the number one reason why players fail is money management and insufficent bankroll.
 

Canceler

Well-Known Member
#15
kewljason said:
Even for a red chipper, a proper bank is thoudands of dollars. ... Even if you are not young that is a lot of money to throw at a new 'venture'.
When I first started getting interested in blackjack I thought $500 would be plenty to risk in this new venture. After a little more reading, and a little more playing, it became obvious I needed at least 10 times that.
 
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