Simplified HC'ing Strategy

revrac

Well-Known Member
#1
Does anyone know what the difference in the advantage between the simplified HC'ing strategy (presented by Uston) and full HC'ing strategy is? He notes the loss in EV is minimal but would be interested to know what the actual differences are.


Additionally, does anyone have an estimate of the advantage if you were to use the simplified HC'ing strategy but not making obvious moves such as doubling a hard 5?
 
#2
revrac said:
Does anyone know what the difference in the advantage between the simplified HC'ing strategy (presented by Uston) and full HC'ing strategy is? He notes the loss in EV is minimal but would be interested to know what the actual differences are.


Additionally, does anyone have an estimate of the advantage if you were to use the simplified HC'ing strategy but not making obvious moves such as doubling a hard 5?
General basic HC without obvious plays like hitting hard 17 and above, etc.,
suggests a player 10% edge. Grosjean recommends NOT splitting 10s also. zg
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#3
Here's a even more simplified HC strategy, I wonder if you can gain an advantage playing after a BJ HC'er, and mimicking his move. I have had ploppies hit 13 v 3 when I do, when they normally would have not :grin:
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#4
Gamblor said:
Here's a even more simplified HC strategy, I wonder if you can gain an advantage playing after a BJ HC'er, and mimicking his move. I have had ploppies hit 13 v 3 when I do, when they normally would have not :grin:
i believe so, at least sometimes.
so, but, keeping tabs on known AP's activities can potentially lead to new AP plays as well.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#5
Gamblor said:
Here's a even more simplified HC strategy, I wonder if you can gain an advantage playing after a BJ HC'er, and mimicking his move. I have had ploppies hit 13 v 3 when I do, when they normally would have not :grin:
Sitting in on a HC'ers game uninvited, and playing off his information is unethical. It can only lead to heat on EVERYONE involved, hard feelings; and will quite often even burn out the game . Come back the next day.

Besides, as Sage says; there are much better ways to handle it when you run into other professionals.
 

Craps Master

Well-Known Member
#7
Sucker said:
Sitting in on a HC'ers game uninvited, and playing off his information is unethical. It can only lead to heat on EVERYONE involved, hard feelings; and will quite often even burn out the game . Come back the next day.
Unethical? It's aggressive, but I don't know about unethical. The outcome doesn't have to be that everyone gets heat and, on the flip side, it's also not the case that coming back the next day will amount to anything, if the game gets smashed by the person playing it. I would say that jumping in on a HC game ranks pretty low among the unethical things an AP can do. For instance, I would say that wonging in/out of games is more unethical, because it costs hapless ploppies money by increasing the house edge against them. Why should a HC player be protected but not ploppies? Or do you also advocate against wonging in/out based on ethical reasons as well?

Anyway, if you have some cogent argument for your assertion of game jumping being unethical, I'd be interested to hear it. I know there is considerable division in the community on this one, but I have never heard anyone make an ethics based argument one way or the other.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#8
Craps Master said:
I have never heard anyone make an ethics based argument one way or the other.
??? You just HEARD one, but evidently you chose to ignore it; so I'll repeat it again:
It can only lead to heat on EVERYONE involved, hard feelings; and will quite often even burn out the game.
This is something that ALL hole card players quickly learn with experience.

Craps Master said:
I know there is considerable division in the community on this one
I know of NO hole card player on the planet that welcomes another player barging in on his game uninvited. I know of no one who's happy to even SEE another player in the same CASINO as him. But I WILL have to agree with you - there IS considerable division in the community; those who know better and those who do not.

There IS a third category: Those who think it's OK if they jump in on YOUR game, but you BETTER stay away when THEY'RE working!
 

Gamblor

Well-Known Member
#9
Sucker said:
Sitting in on a HC'ers game uninvited, and playing off his information is unethical. It can only lead to heat on EVERYONE involved, hard feelings; and will quite often even burn out the game . Come back the next day.

Besides, as Sage says; there are much better ways to handle it when you run into other professionals.
It's only unethical when the HC'er knows I'm doing it :grin: It's a victimless crime, like punching somebody in the dark!

In all seriousness, understood, just fantasizing, and would seriously debate if I would do this if the situation presented itself. And as you mentioned, the extra heat is not worth it, unless I was very slick about it...
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#11
Sucker said:
Sitting in on a HC'ers game uninvited, and playing off his information is unethical. It can only lead to heat on EVERYONE involved, hard feelings; and will quite often even burn out the game . Come back the next day.

Besides, as Sage says; there are much better ways to handle it when you run into other professionals.
I'm wondering what the usual etiquette is for this situation, as you mention "much better ways". (Not that I've ever had to deal with this.)

Also, I suspect that leeching from a HC player's moves wouldn't give you all that much of an advantage - you'll gain a lot more by noting the dealer's identity and coming back another day.

I expect an astute HC player would easily see through this little scheme, and may even throw you a few false signals to get rid of you.
 

Craps Master

Well-Known Member
#12
Sucker said:
??? You just HEARD one, but evidently you chose to ignore it; so I'll repeat it again:
If that's all you've got, I remain unconvinced. None of those are ethical considerations.

I know of NO hole card player on the planet that welcomes another player barging in on his game uninvited. I know of no one who's happy to even SEE another player in the same CASINO as him.
So what? I may not like it if someone jumps my game, but I wouldn't accuse him of being unethical for trying to get the same advantage I am (no more unethical than I am being by hole-carding in the first place). I also don't like it when a boss shows up and corrects the dealer, or when a ploppy takes forever to make every decision he's faced with. There are endless things I don't like to see happen when I am playing, but they come with the territory. The fact is a flasher is not something you own or are entitled to play unmolested; it's a +EV opportunity that you can only try to make the most of... and so can everyone else.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#13
sagefr0g said:
..... bunch of wolves in Yellowstone takes down a bison, then a bear comes along, runs them off and has his dinner. :rolleyes:
rams butting heads........ all about payoff.:cool2:
I've had newbie HC players try to use this analogy; but when it comes to HC play, here's what happens in the REAL world: The bear comes along & runs off the bison - NOBODY eats.

When a HC player is sitting at his game, there is NOTHING that's going to make him leave; short of PAYING him his EV for the day.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#14
Craps Master said:
If that's all you've got, I remain unconvinced. None of those are ethical considerations.
Knowingly running the great risk of damaging another person's livelihood, with almost nothing to gain for yourself is not unethical? And don't give me the extremely short-sighted selfish argument that you gain something (table scraps) for the time you're there. By waiting your turn for another day your LONG-TERM EV is much more than TEN-fold.
 

Craps Master

Well-Known Member
#15
Sucker said:
Knowingly running the great risk of damaging another person's livelihood, with almost nothing to gain for yourself is not unethical? And don't give me the extremely short-sighted selfish argument that you gain something (table scraps) for the time you're there. By waiting your turn for another day your LONG-TERM EV is much more than TEN-fold.
That's a BS argument. First, "almost nothing to gain for yourself" is nonsense. I have seen many people jump games and win a lot of money. Secondly, there's no guarantee that game is going to be there the next day. The player on the game could smash it and leave nothing for you to go after the next day. Not to mention, if he doesn't, you can bet he'll be there the next day looking around, and the same scenario could emerge over and over. Do you think multiple guys stalking a game and rushing around trying to grab a seat is ultimately going to go much better than someone jumping a game?

Beyond these obvious holes in your argument, trying to frame this as an ethical matter is ridiculous. Just by being a hole carder you are damaging someone else's livelihood. You are probably going to end up getting more than one dealer fired over the course of your career, and you are eating away at other hole-carders' lifetime EV. There are only so many games, and there is only so much money to go around; some of the money you end up making is money that other players will no longer have the opportunity to make. What happens on one game on any given day is just a microcosm of this.

To further see how indefensible your position is, we only need to look at a few other scenarios and inquire about the ethics therein. First, consider the case of the wonging card counter that I brought up before. If he jumps into games in high counts and exits in low counts, he is costing everyone else at that table money. Does that make this practice unethical? Does it make a difference if the victims are ploppies or advantage players? Consider also the case of a 2/1 blackjack promotion. Suppose you arrive and see that another professional is already at the table, betting two hands of table maximum. By some miracle, there is a seat open when you arrive. You could sit down and also bet table maximum but, in doing so, you would cost this other guy money. The two of you betting heavily will draw more attention to the game, and the promotion will shut down at some point when it gets beaten hard enough. If another ploppy took the seat and bet small, this other professional would make more EV, but you would make nothing. What's the ethical play here?

Basically, the ethics of advantage play are a lot more complicated than you're making them out to be. It's not always the case that it's EV maximizing to find someone else on a hole card game and then just leave. Sometimes it is in your best interest to play then and there. It's never in the other guy's best interest, but is that enough to make the practice of jumping his game unethical? No. You're both out there trying to make money doing the exact same thing, and nobody owns the game. If costing someone else EV were enough to make your actions unethical, then you should not be a hole-carder in the first place, because you're inevitably costing other hole-carders money every time you play.

Anyway, I've made my point and you can believe whatever you want. Subjective ethics is nothing new, and I don't see us making any major philosophical breakthroughs here. Just be aware that not everyone shares your opinion.
 

Sucker

Well-Known Member
#16
Craps Master said:
Just be aware that not everyone shares your opinion.
I am VERY aware that there are unethical people in this world; who will try to justify their actions to themselves. What goes around, comes around....
 

Craps Master

Well-Known Member
#17
Sucker said:
I am VERY aware that there are unethical people in this world; who will try to justify their actions to themselves. What goes around, comes around....
So if they jump your game you will jump their game? I think they can live with that.
 
#18
Sucker said:
I WILL have to agree with you - there IS considerable division in the [HC] community; those who know better and those who do not.
Some HCers who DO know better are nonetheless notorious for burning out games that might otherwise last.
Sometimes these neanderthal HCers operate solely out of spite, jealousy and false-entitlement-based thinking. zg
 
#19
Craps Master said:
Basically, the ethics of advantage play are a lot more complicated than you're making them out to be. It's not always the case that it's EV maximizing to find someone else on a hole card game and then just leave. Sometimes it is in your best interest to play then and there. It's never in the other guy's best interest, but is that enough to make the practice of jumping his game unethical? No. You're both out there trying to make money doing the exact same thing, and nobody owns the game. If costing someone else EV were enough to make your actions unethical, then you should not be a hole-carder in the first place, because you're inevitably costing other hole-carders money every time you play.
We need to apply the John Nash Equalibrium Game Theory, for advanced APs dealing with one-another in a competitive environ. zg
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#20
zengrifter said:
We need to apply the John Nash Equalibrium Game Theory, for advanced APs dealing with one-another in a competitive environ. zg
really, imho, business's in competition consider this sort of stuff, why not AP's.........
(Dead link: http://academicearth.org/lectures/introduction-to-game-theory)
haven't got that far in the series, but 11 Evolutionary Stability: Cooperation, Mutation, and Equilibrium, 12 Evolutionary Stability: Social Convention, Aggression, and Cycles & 13 Sequential Games: Moral Hazard, Incentives, and Hungry Lions (errhh well the whole concept of game theory, actually) have interesting titles with respect to this stuff.:rolleyes:
 
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